ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Is this the one that finally lines-up for a Florida hit?

Climatology suggests a relatively high chance. HOWEVER,it remains to be seen if all of the things line up for hurricane to impact Florida from this.

All I have to say is this has had my interest for several days now.

[Sanibel]

If I'm reading the track correctly this could have a bit of time close to shore or just inland. So it might have a bit of a struggle before re-emerging.


You can see the next shortwave spinning in the mid-US. It should affect track significantly.

[SFLcane]

Is this the one that finally lines-up for a Florida hit?

Climatology suggests a relatively high chance. HOWEVER,it remains to be seen if all of the things line up for hurricane to impact Florida from this.

All I have to say is this has had my interest for several days now.

Anythings possible...But i still just cant see this being a significant cyclone for sfl with that strong westerly flow in the GOM. I favor a track south of florida for now.

[gatorcane]

I agree with you if the system makes a turn to the NE over the next few days. But most models seem to suggest this will fester in the NW Caribbean close to Belize for the next several days. So the shear across the Southern GOM/FL/Straits may not be as strong by the time it moves to the NE.

[Blown Away]

Is this the one that finally lines-up for a Florida hit?

Climatology suggests a relatively high chance. HOWEVER,it remains to be seen if all of the things line up for hurricane to impact Florida from this.

All I have to say is this has had my interest for several days now.

If it develops it will be close, but looking at the models that trough seems strong and pushes 98L ENE as it approaches W Cuba. Still looks like a track over the Straits/Cuba at this point, but it is way early.

[KWT]

Yeah given its likely to stay in the NW Caribbean it should stay away from the high shear zone for at least the next 72hrs anyway.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua:

10 AM (14) Oct 11 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.77 (1008) W 5 rain in the vicinity

[KWT]

Wrapping up there real nice Hurakan, the Microwave shows it really well at the moment.

Going to be difficult for the NHC to gain anything from recon though given the systems southern side is more or less overland right now.

[ronjon]

:uarrow:
I agree with you if the system makes a turn to the NE over the next few days. But most models seem to suggest this will fester in the NW Caribbean close to Belize for the next several days. So the shear across the Southern GOM/FL/Straits may not be as strong by the time it moves to the NE.

Probably going to meander in the NW caribbean if it misses the first trough connection (ala GFS and Euro) for perhaps a week. A strong continental high pressure diving down in the center of the country then moving east will actually push the cyclone slowly E-SE away from the Yucatan coast in 3 days according to the latest global models. 98l may be with us a long time (aka Mitch) if the globals are to be believed.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Puerto Lempira, Honduras:

11 AM (15) Oct 11 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.74 (1007) WNW 18 heavy rain

Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua:

11 AM (15) Oct 11 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) W 5

[x-y-no]

That surface banding just looks better and better. I don't see any way this isn't a TD. Land interaction may be keeping it below TS status for now.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater



Floater moved!

[MGC]

Sure looks like a tropical cyclone to me....lookin a the microwave, the center looks to be right along the Honduran coast...so, it should not stay over land too long......MGC

[HURAKAN]

Strong convection over the center

[vegastar]

ABNT20 KNHC 111528
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR THE BORDER OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
FORMED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WOULD BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

[btangy]

I think this will be designated a TD or TS in reanalysis extending back since Saturday. I'm still not sure why NHC is going against all the evidence... T numbers, microwave imagery, visible imagery, and ASCAT. Models aren't bullish on development, but are they really initializing the system well? I'm not so sure. The convection isn't right over the center, but that should not be a requirement for a tropical cyclone. If that were the case, we'd have to downgrade every sheared hurricane once it becomes asymmetric. Recon will be in there later, but with the system so close to land, they might not be able to get a VDM out. I can see the NHC going either way this afternoon: dropping probabilities significantly due to proximity to land or upgrading the system to a TD or TS.

[gatorcane]

Wow, check out the SAT presentation. Here we go folks:

[SouthDadeFish]

The outflow toward the west has really improved, and is a good sign that 98L will strengthen once it fully emerges over the Gulf of Honduras.