ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure just found=1000 mbs.

[cycloneye]

Storm2k map has gone to "No Active Storms" http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric= This happens when they go from an active invest to a storm.. Advisory should be very soon

We dont change the titles of the threads until its official. You are right about the automated graphic.

[Sanibel]

SSD listing this as "Paula" on Floater.


Improving in form.

[Macrocane]

Not official yet but I'm not surprised it is already a tropical storm, IMO it has been a tropical cyclone since at least yesterday. The NHC has been very slow wih this system.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Watch this place explode with activity once news about Paula start breaking in.

Especially if it keeps hanging round in the NW Caribbean as it's suggested by several models.

[CrazyC83]

77 kt FL supports Hurricane Paula. I'd be conservative and say it is 55 kt closer to the SFMR and central pressure.

[cycloneye]

62kts at flight level uncontaminated.

[Weatherfreak000]

Naysayers wanna get some of that crow now?

[45NWOrlando]

Exactly. Special TWOs can be issued at any time between the normal TWOs. I thought the NHC would have issued one with the increased organization, but they didn't.

The "special" Outlook would have already been or shortly been issued after you posted at 4:18pm.

[Decomdoug]

Accuweather has it as Paula:

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/blogs/ ... ccuweather

"Tropical Storm Paula Forms in Caribbean"
By Gina Cherundolo, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
Oct 11, 2010; 3:00 PM ETShare |

[cycloneye]

77 kt FL supports Hurricane Paula. I'd be conservative and say it is 55 kt closer to the SFMR and central pressure.

That reading is rain contaminated.

[latitude_20]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 19:38Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate seventh suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 19:24:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°50'N 83°51'W (15.8333N 83.85W)
B. Center Fix Location: 290 miles (466 km) to the SW (214°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 335° at 50kts (From the NNW at ~ 57.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 459m (1,506ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 456m (1,496ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:27:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:27:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (306°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND BETTER ORGANIZED NW AROUND TO NE
INFREQ LTG IN NW QUAD WITH BAND

[AdamFirst]

Any significant observations from Honduras at the moment?

[cycloneye]

Decoded vortex message,Crazy,that 77kts was indeed good.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 19:38Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate seventh suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 19:24:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°50'N 83°51'W (15.8333N 83.85W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 290 miles (466 km) to the SW (214°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 335° at 50kts (From the NNW at ~ 57.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 459m (1,506ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 456m (1,496ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:27:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:27:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (306°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND BETTER ORGANIZED NW AROUND TO NE
INFREQ LTG IN NW QUAD WITH BAND

[CrazyC83]

Since we are so close to the advisory but this is clearly strengthening, I would issue a Tropical Cyclone Update initializing Paula. Too close to the advisory for a Special Advisory. I'd initialize at 55 kt with a pressure of 999mb.

[x-y-no]

77 kt FL supports Hurricane Paula. I'd be conservative and say it is 55 kt closer to the SFMR and central pressure.

That reading is rain contaminated.

The flag is "03" which refers to SFMR only. No flag on the flight level wind.

[SouthFloridawx]

Gotta be a mistake.

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 77 KT NE QUAD 19:27:50Z

[Weatherfreak000]

I think this will be designated a TD or TS in reanalysis extending back since Saturday. I'm still not sure why NHC is going against all the evidence... T numbers, microwave imagery, visible imagery, and ASCAT. Models aren't bullish on development, but are they really initializing the system well? I'm not so sure. The convection isn't right over the center, but that should not be a requirement for a tropical cyclone. If that were the case, we'd have to downgrade every sheared hurricane once it becomes asymmetric. Recon will be in there later, but with the system so close to land, they might not be able to get a VDM out. I can see the NHC going either way this afternoon: dropping probabilities significantly due to proximity to land or upgrading the system to a TD or TS.

This pro met's words are exactly what I mean as far as consistency with the NHC. Members and promets alike have agreed that this area could have potentially been producing ACE for 24 hours or longer. A member or two has made the point to me that this doesn't change ACE too drastically and I understand but I am only arguing consistency. Now recon is finding very strong TS winds and it is arguable we SHOULD have a decent little chunk more ACE recorded than we do.

A poor job by the NHC imo, and Recon confirmed it.

[Squarethecircle]

77 kt FL supports Hurricane Paula. I'd be conservative and say it is 55 kt closer to the SFMR and central pressure.

That reading is rain contaminated.

Here it is: 192730 1555N 08342W 9592 00378 0019 +215 +070 181069 077 058 002 03

According to this: http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/09/pdf/17-app_g-09.pdf
On page 9, the final digit value of 3 indicates "3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable"