ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Aquawind]

Wow 98L/Paula has the presentation that screams RI once it pulls away from land a little further...

The NHC have been WAY behind the curve with this system!

What do you mean by "The NHC have been WAY behind the curve with this system!"???

There are a number of people including pros who think this could have been a TD days ago if you read back a few pages..

[ozonepete]

Naysayers wanna get some of that crow now?

I'll take mine with extra hot sauce, bones, feathers, and all.
Hmmm, cyclogenesis without model support yesterday. Mother nature still sometimes trumps computers.

It is funny you mention that, a few storms this year have snuck past the models as far as development. Somehow, they aren't doing so well in picking up on storms in I suppose irregular thermodynamics....however, pro mets love bringing back up how even cat 5's can get missed by the models.


Moral of the story being those that hug the models, any model, crash and burn with them.

Also points to the fact that NHC and the models it uses still do WAY better on track. Intensity is still a major challenge, whether it's strong or weak, and that includes developing systems. The models just don't get enough good data including but not limited to mid-level dry air, moisture transport and other exchanges with the environment. But that's what makes it so interesting to follow...

[KWT]

Decomdoug, without a doubt this is at least 50kts right now given what recon has been finding, I don't think they will dare go higher then that without another pass confirming that but these systems can wind up mighty fast...

[CrazyC83]

We'll see if the pressure catches up to the winds. That last pass had a pressure of 1000mb.

[brunota2003]

I'll put $10.00 on going right to T.S. at 5 P.M.

We have winds from recon already that more than support ts force winds.

[KWT]

The next pass through will be interesting, if they find anything near what they did last time then the NHC could well justify an upgrade to hurricane right away, 70kts at the surface and 77kts flight level is more then enough to justify it...but I'd be surprised if the NHC went that high without several passes to show its actually at that strength.

[AdamFirst]

I think any 5 PM update will be delayed just for that, KWT.

It would be unprecedented if this was a hurricane though at 5.

[CrazyC83]

So far, it seems that 77 kt was transient and unrepresentative.

[KWT]

Yeah I'd be amazed if it goes that high but 50-55kts sounds reasonable enough for me.

Recon shows this is moving NW looking at the last couple of vortex messages, so its slowly pulling away from land and as this occurs I can only imagine this will get increasingly well organised.

[Weatherfreak000]

I think any 5 PM update will be delayed just for that, KWT.

It would be unprecedented if this was a hurricane though at 5.

It would spell such an monumental bust that even the NHC could not be excused over, IMO.

Edit: Even if they started intensity at around 50-55kt it would still spell an enormous bust. Is it possible we have lost nearly completely a WHOLE point of ACE over this? I'm disappointed.

[canes101]

I'll put $10.00 on going right to T.S. at 5 P.M.

I would say you are right seeing as the NHC Floater is already titled "Paula (18L)" See direct link here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html
Saved image and uploaded via ImageShack below


If they were going to just go to TD then it wouldn't be titled Paula right?

[Vortex]

I think theyll go with 50-55mph and hurricane watches for portions of the yucatan...

[stormywaves]

It says Tropical Storm Paula now on the nhc site

[caneseddy]

Initial intensity set at 60 mph per NHC

[CrazyC83]

I think any 5 PM update will be delayed just for that, KWT.

It would be unprecedented if this was a hurricane though at 5.

It would spell such an monumental bust that even the NHC could not be excused over, IMO.

Edit: Even if they started intensity at around 50-55kt it would still spell an enormous bust. Is it possible we have lost nearly completely a WHOLE point of ACE over this? I'm disappointed.

The final best track will correct that though.

[caneseddy]

Interesting snippets from the discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 112032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...AND
AN INTENSIFYING ONE AT THAT. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT...AND THIS
COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TRENDS...AND
PAULA COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT TIME...PAULA MAY ENCOUNTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
A BROAD PEAK FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS AND THEN SLOW WEAKENING AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS CLOSEST TO
THE LGEM AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8 BASED ON AIRCRAFT FIXES AND
EARLIER ESTIMATES OF THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. PAULA
IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A BROAD
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE
BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS PAULA DRIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD AT DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION AT DAY 5.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND
ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK
FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE.

BASED ON THE FORECAST...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 16.0N 84.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 16.8N 84.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 18.3N 86.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 19.6N 86.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 20.0N 86.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 20.0N 85.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 85.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[AdamFirst]

Holy cow.

Anyone got any darts?

[Macrocane]

Look at that "circle" of uncertainty.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1810W5_NL+gif/203114W5_NL_sm.gif

Holy cow.

Anyone got any darts?

They say little confidence on the track.

[neospaceblue]

I've heard of the "Cone of Uncertainty", but this is the first time I have seen the "Sphere of Uncertainty"