ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

[KWT]

I suspect that presentation is only going to improve overnight, will be interesting to see if recon finds an eyewall developing with Paula when it passes next time.

[SouthDadeFish]

It should be noted that up until now, the coastline was running NW, parallel to Paula's movement. Now the coastline bends back west and Paula will be gaining distance from land, aiding to the intensification process.

[KWT]

Yep SDF I think that will help this system out, the interesting thing the models seem to be suggesting is a quicker motion to the NW then the offical forecast suggests and if that was to occur then it'd probably be close enough to the shear zone that it'd struggle once the steering currents weaken...

Of course on the otherhand if it does move slower and act like it does on the NHC forecast, IMO we could easily get major hurricane Paula from this.

[SouthFloridawx]

A wider view...

[Shuriken]

It is inconceivable to me that this storm could sit in that location for a full five days without cranking up into a monster. The isotherms are so deep there that "churning" just brings up more warm water.

[SouthDadeFish]

It is inconceivable to me that this storm could sit in that location for a full five days without cranking up into a monster. The isotherms are so deep there that "churning" just brings up more warm water.

it's not just the water temps though. Wind shear could limit intensification/weaken the cyclone. If it were up to just TCHP every storm that went through the Carib would bomb. Although many do

[CrazyC83]

If this can build up a solid inner core, then I think it will REALLY take off. This could easily become another monster hurricane. It is entering a virtual bomb factory.

[KWT]

Yep Crazy this area of the basin at this time of the year just is primed so needs watching...often the jet that runs to the north tends to just provide outflow for NW Caribbean systems.

I suspect the center may well jog west a little soon towards the deepest convection. The exact track will be interesting because the new GFS/Nogaps both suggest this heads NW quicker then the models were suggesting earlier today and if it moves faster then the NHC forecast that will raise confidence on that solution.

[Cryomaniac]

It is inconceivable to me that this storm could sit in that location for a full five days without cranking up into a monster. The isotherms are so deep there that "churning" just brings up more warm water.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _NL_sm.gif

I don't think I've seen a 5 day cone that was circular before

[wzrgirl1]

I personally favor climatology with this storm. I think this will head in the straits of Florida or maybe just a tad north of that....and I do think this will be a decent hurricane....maybe a cat. 2.

[ROCK]

It is inconceivable to me that this storm could sit in that location for a full five days without cranking up into a monster. The isotherms are so deep there that "churning" just brings up more warm water.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... _NL_sm.gif

I don't think I've seen a 5 day cone that was circular before

I never saw one before either....first for me...

[ROCK]

with that front passage progged for FL this is right in time to keep Paula in check...IMO....

[Nimbus]

They must be expecting a lot of shear given the high SST's. A stronger storm would tend to make any troughs dig, but the current track seems to imply a miss by the first front? Otherwise Paula could get dragged out NE over Cuba and follow Otto's track.

[KWT]

I think there is probably a pretty good shot at RI with this system at some point, the only factor that looks perhaps questionable for that is maybe some slight easterly shear but I can't really seeing much else other then brief land interaction over the next 6hrs before it pulls away from land to stop this system from blowing up.

I'll throw a cheeky punt out there and go for a major this time tomorrow...

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[fci]

NWS Miami snippet. Looks like a strong cold front is on the way. How could this not pick up Paula if Paula deepens enough in the NW Carib.....reminds me of the type of cold front that ejected Wilma off to the ENE, though Paula is nowhere near as strong as Wilma was:

ALTHOUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...IT APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN
ABRUPT END FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS A
DEEPENING UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...ENDING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AS MID-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...USHERING
A MUCH COOLER/DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. BASED ON PROJECTED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS AND DEW
POINT PROGS...LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
MAY REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT
METRO SITES LIKELY THE COOLEST WE HAVE SINCE SINCE EARLY APRIL.
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST ON SATURDAY...
WITH DEVELOPING NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO GRADUAL AIR
MASS MODIFICATION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Which might send Paula ENE towards Eastern Cuba and then south of the Bahamas

[KWT]

Thats what some of the models on the 18z suite are suggesting FCI but right now its certainly too early to call...and thats rather a November type track to be honest but who knows its getting towards the time of year where thats becoming an increasingly possible track...

My fear is something like the Cuba 1924 track, esp if the systems forward motion is slower in the first 24-36hrs...

[latitude_20]

Looking very healthy:

[Sanibel]

1924 Cuba Hurricane started in the exact same place as Paula, looped exactly where they expect Paula to loop, and became a category 5 monster before hitting western Cuba:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1924_Cuba_hurricane

[FireRat]

It may be that October 17th-18th will live up to its infamy for bringing several October Florida/Cuba hurricane strikes. History repeats itself.