WPAC: INVEST 91W

[StormingB81]

This one is located at 12N 135E

This is west of 90W about right in the middle between PI and Guam

[KWT]

Its hard to know whether the ECM is developing this system of 90W but either way it finally shows something developing in the WPAC, indeed the ECM shows this developing into a bit of a brute down the line.

[phwxenthusiast]

yey, finally something to track again... and this time, it looks like RP will be in the action...

[dexterlabio]

Do you think this invest could affect 15W in any way? Seems like the convection around 91W is getting stronger.

[supercane]

JTWC is giving this area a fair chance of development:
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6N
134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 315NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENSION TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.



TPPN10 PGTW 130627
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (PHILIPPINE SEA)
B. 13/0530Z
C. 12.7N
D. 130.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A .30 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF A 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
GATES

TXPN24 KNES 130324
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)
B. 13/0257Z
C. 12.4N
D. 132.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/TMI
H. REMARKS...MI ANALYSIS AND VIS LOOPING SHOWS NICELY CURVED CU STREAMERS
NORTH OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INDICATING A PSBL LLC FORMING. THOUGH AS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CDO IS ERODING RAPIDLY EXPOSING MORE OF THE
LL CU FIELD... CLOSED CENTER LOOKING LESS LIKELY. STILL PERSISTENCE OF
CONVECTION AND .2 BANDING MEASURED THROUGH SW CONVECTIVE CLUSTER... DT OF
1.0 WARRANTS INITIAL CLASSIFICATION. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
12/2205Z 13.0N 132.4E SSMIS
13/0145Z 12.5N 132.2E TMI
...GALLINA
=

Still looks rather trough-like on latest ASCAT, though:


Difficult to say if this can survive as a separate system given only 8 deg lon separating it from strengthening 15W (soon to be Megi) to the east. ITOP does note that 91W is partially responsible for 15W's WSW jog.

[supercane]

TXPN24 KNES 130908
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)
B. 13/0830Z
C. 13.2N
D. 130.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...VERY DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE SYSTEM PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD
TO LLC (IF THERE IS ONE). LOW LEVEL CU FIELDS AND TRACER BANDS SUGGEST
CENTER TO THE NORTH OF PERSISTENT BUT RAPIDLY MOVING COMPLEX THAT AT
MEASURES .3 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0. PT IS ALSO 1.0 FT BASED
ON MET. RECENT SUITE OF SSMI AND SSMIS PASSES ALSO MUDDLE THE LLC
SITUATION WITH PSBL LLC BEHIND THE BOWED ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
12.5N AND 131E ONLY MAKING SITUATION LESS CERTAIN.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GALLINA
=

[KWT]

15W makes this one tough to develop, I suspect given the trend for a stronger system from 15W/Megi we will see this one probably not develop...

[supercane]

Downgraded to poor on JTWC's latest significant tropical weather advisory, and expect this to be gobbled up by Megi.
ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZOCT2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140151ZOCT2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 140000Z, TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
12.1N 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 140300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
132.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 131.2E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS POORLY-
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TS 15W. THE
140129Z ASCAT IMAGE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
INDICATES RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS
NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE SLP VALUES OF 1007-1008 MB. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

[StormingB81]

I believe sometime tomorrow it will get swallowed up into 15w and that will be all she wrote