ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[floridastorm88]

is there a possibility of this storm coming to fla? i thought i heard the storm season was basically over for the US kinda let my guard down should we concerned?

[hurricaneCW]

Unfortunately someone will get hit by this, but hopefully by then it's a weak, sheared system. I'm favoring a Cuban landfall, just south of Florida and possibly parts of the southern Bahamas.

[KWT]

I'd be very interested to see where the center is right now and whether its tucked itself under the deeper convection or not...if that is the case then that would probably put the Yucatan at a far greater threat...but hard to know right now...

SAnibel, thats why I'm paying this one close attention, esp as conditions are looking decent at least for the next 48-72hrs unless it really does get real far north.

[Sanibel]

The 1924 Cuba Hurricane was the strongest hurricane to ever hit Cuba and destroyed 2 towns. It was the 10th strongest Atlantic hurricane on record.

[Dean4Storms]

I cannot help but think that a front that strong digging all the way into south FL with 50's would put dry and cold air into this storm. It might be that Paula gets either very weak or sent SSW once the front misses her.

[FireRat]

This one is perhaps the most threatening storm this year for Florida, we all should be watching it closely, I am seriously thinking we may have trouble come the 17th, especially with the current guidance showing the storm will still be in the Caribbean 5 days out on the 16th.....as if waiting for the next trough to pick it up as a powerhouse. This is very likely as far as Climatology goes, and I feel it deserves good attention. The season ain't over yet, and we'll probably be saying this in November too, before the 30th.

[KWT]

The 1924 Cuba Hurricane was the strongest hurricane to ever hit Cuba and destroyed 2 towns. It was the 10th strongest Atlantic hurricane on record.

Well I don't expect it to get to that sort of strength but if you look back many big hitters from previous Octobers formed very close to where Paula is now...given the current look it has combined with good conditions its certainly going to have to be watched...

Ive also got a feeling this one will come very close to the Yucatan before finally feeling the effects of the trough and moving NE/ENE towards Cuba/Keys/S.Florida.

[cycloneye]

A little bit stronger.

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 84.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[latitude_20]

So looking at the purple, which indicates the top of the IR spectrum, would this be a tip-off to possible RI?

[FireRat]

I am thinking something like the 1944 Cuba-Florida storm would be the worst case scenario.

Most likely would be something between an Irene and a Wilma.

Best Case: 1987's Floyd

[cyclonic chronic]

i think the center has moved itself under the deep convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

u can see a ring or most of a ring of purple centered at 16N, 85W. im thinking this is the center. seems close proximity to land has nothing to do with paula. dont be suprised to wake up tommrow to see a major, this is a rapidly deepening storm. think about how its presentation was 24 hours ago, compared to now. as far as track, who knows. i dont think the models will have a decent read on paula until recon samples the enviornment a few more times. it seems the NHC is so dependant on the models, they wont say anything concrete till the models agree more. so much for human intuition.

[FireRat]

It almost seems like it wants to do what Matthew never did.

[latitude_20]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND APPROACH
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN HONDURAS...
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.

[wzrgirl1]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
PAULA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND APPROACH
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN HONDURAS...
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ON THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE WAVES.

This has already been posted in the advisories thread.

[brunota2003]

So looking at the purple, which indicates the top of the IR spectrum, would this be a tip-off to possible RI?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/jsl-l.jpg

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Depends on where the center is...But, assuming the purple is wrapping into the center, then yes I would say that IR will be likely occurring within the next 12 hours. The fact that part of it is overland will limit the IR some, but I could see the system getting to Cat 2 or 3 by tomorrow afternoon.

[FLpanhandle91]

Tropical update on TWC said lightning is occurring right over the LLC. RI will start now. Looking for a hurricane by 11 pm

[KWT]

CC, I think thats the worry for me as well, whilst its tough to know without recon and next to impossible without Vis imagery, it at least appears that the LLC is close to that deep convection and the ring of colder cloud tops may even be the starting developments of an eyewall.

[Rainband]

Tropical update on TWC said lightning is occurring right over the LLC. RI will start now. Looking for a hurricane by 11 pm

Like I said I am watching this one closely...

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking 1924 might just be an analog for this one.

[gatorcane]

Wow, deep convection with extremely cold cloud tops blowing up over the center. This may be undergoing RI right now. A major hurricane looks very possible