ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[KWT]

Yeah Gatorcane I said earlier on today this probably has a good shot at being a major, I also still think this has every chance of being a 4/5 as long as it doesn't get too close to the Yucatan too quickly.

Should be gaining more distance from land as well now, not that that aspect hindered Karl from becoming a major hurricane a few weeks ago!

Crazy, its certainly one of the storms that could be comparable, esp if this system does take its time heading NW.

[hurricaneCW]

Wow, deep convection with extremely cold cloud tops blowing up over the center. This may be undergoing RI right now. A major hurricane looks very possible

It's far more impressive than I thought it could be. I think it has a chance to become a major as well. We'll see what happens.

[wzrgirl1]

Does anyone have a recent satellite presentation?

[brunota2003]

I do not think it is IRing right this second, but if the center is where I think it is, it is getting ready to. Right now it is most likely gradually strengthening while dropping the pressure and forming an eyewall. Around the time (or a little before) Recon gets out there tonight is when IR will start, and Recon should get a good look at an IRing system.

[SouthFloridawx]

Can't wait for recon to get back out there...

[apocalypt-flyer]

Boom, boom, boom by the look of that.

Anyways, the 5 days cone map alone will induce an utter tiptoe frenzy in NW Caribbean/SFL. Or at least that's what I hope will happen because Paula really mustn't be taken lightly.

[Rainband]

Boom, boom, boom by the look of that.

Anyways, the 5 days cone map alone will induce an utter tiptoe frenzy in NW Caribbean/SFL. Or at least that's what I hope will happen because Paula really mustn't be taken lightly.

all of florida need to watch this imho

[apocalypt-flyer]

all of florida need to watch this imho

Oh, I agree, no one should let their guard down at any cost.

[cyclonic chronic]

i think the center will be south and west of the NHC 12/6z (2 A.M. eastern) forecast

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

[sunnyday]

Local newspaper says Paula's early models spare Florida.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Local newspaper says Paula's early models spare Florida.

Not the new GFDL

[apocalypt-flyer]

Which is just bad journalism, isn't it?

If they were being sensible they'd say there's a low confidence in the first models and that it will bear watching.

Saying the first models spare Florida just gives people a false sense of security.

[SouthDadeFish]

The next microwave pass will be very interesting to see if an eyewall is beginning to form.

[KWT]

I do not think it is IRing right this second, but if the center is where I think it is, it is getting ready to. Right now it is most likely gradually strengthening while dropping the pressure and forming an eyewall. Around the time (or a little before) Recon gets out there tonight is when IR will start, and Recon should get a good look at an IRing system.

Yeah I don't think its quite there yet but its clearly getting ready, I see no reason why this won't be a major in 18-24hrs time...history alone suggests a heightened threat of that occuring at this time of year, as I've been saying for a VERY long time in various threads throughout the summer...

[Aquawind]

Well there is some serious high pressure behind the cold front(s) so maybe it could dig a little further south and lift this out sooner rather than later. Afterall we are talking models..lol Granted lift is vague in that the system could easily move out well to the east and south of Florida. I do have a hard time thinking Paula will not be a Major at some point from the looks of the enviroment and the THP.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The 18z GFDL, if it verifies, would necessitate hurricane warnings in the Florida Keys by this time tommorrow as the model shows Paula just south of Key West as a 100 mph storm at 78 hours or very early Friday morning. An interesting scenario for the NHC. Are they buying into this solution? Not much time to decide.

[sunnyday]

The local radio met said, in the same vein as the newspaper, that the storm will likely weaken during days 4 and 5 and move n/nw as a sheared storm, so there are no worries now. What did the new GFDL show?

[SouthDadeFish]

This could be dangerous for the Florida Keys. If the NHC buys into the stall scenario, and at the last second Paula gets picked up, the Keys would have little time to evacuate.

[hurricaneCW]

To say that this is no concern with so much uncertainty is pure foolishness. I'd rather they just give accurate details from the NHC and mention the uncertainty and not give an actual forecast.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

This could be dangerous for the Florida Keys. If the NHC buys into the stall scenario, and at the last second Paula gets picked up, the Keys would have little time to evacuate.

It could be a tricky situation as it often is when the Keys are threatened.