ATL: PAULA - Models

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like the 18z models are a good deal quicker in taking this to the NW in the next 24hrs, if that were to occur then there caqn be few doubts of the eventual outcome...

However equally it remains to be seen whether that occurs or not...

Steering weakens right near the shear zone on the Nogaps, if it weakens a little quicker or the system is slower then it'll stay in the Caribbean for longer.

[SouthFloridawx]

84 Hours... Hanging out in the Channel

[Rainband]

I am watching this one very closely....

[SouthFloridawx]

Very similar to GFS.

[SouthDadeFish]

So what I'm getting from this is that the models are trending northward. With the next runs of a stronger initialization, things will get interesting.

[SouthFloridawx]

Nogaps Model:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2010101118&prod=prp&tau=120&set=Tropical

[MGC]

Best to wait till the 0Z runs are out. Paula is far more organized than any of the models have it. Currently hedging my bets with the GFDL........MGC

[KWT]

Very weak steering currents on both the GFS/Nogaps once we get past 48hrs, so whilst they are both in good agreement I'd be rather hesistant for now in supporting that idea till the 00z runs, though it looks more realistic to me to be honest!

I actually think the Nogaps looks reasonable at the moment...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Very weak steering currents on both the GFS/Nogaps once we get past 48hrs, so whilst they are both in good agreement I'd be rather hesistant for now in supporting that idea till the 00z runs, though it looks more realistic to me to be honest!

I actually think the Nogaps looks reasonable at the moment...

I don't agree if Paula is still a stronger storm then the GFS and NOGAPS depict at 72 to 102 hours as the ENE flow at that time is much stronger at the mid and upper levels and would pick a stronger storm up.

[MGC]

That is what I am thinking.....Paula will be a stronger storm, hence deeper and the upper flow is towards the NE-ENE.....probable direction it will eventually go.....MGC

[KWT]

Bottom line is its still too early to call, interestingly the ECM 12z run had a much stronger system then the other models (still too weak probably but down to 999mbs) and was a good deal slower then those two models...

As I said I personally support the Nogaps solution (wow can't believe I said that) and have thought the models are probably a little overdoing the strength of the upper trough but it'll probably still pack just enough punch to do what the models show...

The next 24hrs motion will give a clear indication as to whats going to unfold IMO...

[Rainband]

That is what I am thinking.....Paula will be a stronger storm, hence deeper and the upper flow is towards the NE-ENE.....probable direction it will eventually go.....MGC

Lmao this year has been anything but probable..

[Macrocane]

I know some of you will disagree with me but I've always thought that the GFS 18z is the least reliable of the runs it is inconsistent with the other runs most of the times and that's why I say again that I prefer to wait for the 0z runs.

[gatorcane]

Are the 18z gfdl and hwrf coming out soon?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
HWRF dissapates Paula again.

[gatorcane]

It's amazing how "lost" the models have been with this one

[Rainband]

It's amazing how "lost" the models have been with this one

like i said probable left the basin lol

[KWT]

That 18z HWRF is real messed up, the funny thing the starting point at 18z and the strength isn't that bad but the model just loses the plot...

Whats even funnier is it almost tracks exactly the same way back down towards CA after coming near the Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL is very different in strengh and track from HWRF. Thru Yucatan Channel and then takes it thru the Florida straits.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation