ATL: PAULA - Models

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
GFDL just south of the keys as about a 95-100 mph storm

[KWT]

GFDL looks pretty reasonable though IMO its a little on the fast side in terms of its motion but the idea that it probably hits the NE Yucatan then shoots ENE like Wilma did is something I think the models will come into better agreement soon.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models Suite

SHIP up to 80kts.

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WHXX01 KWBC 120045
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULA (AL182010) 20101012 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101012  0000   101012  1200   101013  0000   101013  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.5N  84.4W   17.8N  85.6W   18.8N  86.5W   19.2N  87.2W
BAMD    16.5N  84.4W   18.0N  85.7W   19.5N  86.5W   20.9N  86.8W
BAMM    16.5N  84.4W   17.8N  85.6W   19.0N  86.4W   19.7N  86.8W
LBAR    16.5N  84.4W   18.1N  85.7W   19.9N  86.5W   21.8N  86.3W
SHIP        55KTS          68KTS          76KTS          79KTS
DSHP        55KTS          68KTS          76KTS          79KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101014  0000   101015  0000   101016  0000   101017  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.9N  87.6W   17.0N  88.0W   14.2N  90.3W   12.4N  94.1W
BAMD    22.3N  86.2W   26.3N  79.1W   31.5N  62.0W   32.2N  45.0W
BAMM    20.1N  87.1W   20.3N  86.0W   20.9N  85.3W   21.8N  84.9W
LBAR    23.8N  84.4W   29.4N  73.7W   33.6N  57.6W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        80KTS          71KTS          54KTS          49KTS
DSHP        80KTS          71KTS          54KTS          49KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.5N LONCUR =  84.4W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  15.2N LONM12 =  83.2W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  13.7N LONM24 =  81.1W
WNDCUR =   55KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS =  998MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  130NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =   30NM RD34SW =   30NM RD34NW =  60NM
 


[CalmBeforeStorm]

00z Tropical Models Suite

SHIP up to 80kts.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 120045
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULA (AL182010) 20101012 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101012  0000   101012  1200   101013  0000   101013  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.5N  84.4W   17.8N  85.6W   18.8N  86.5W   19.2N  87.2W
BAMD    16.5N  84.4W   18.0N  85.7W   19.5N  86.5W   20.9N  86.8W
BAMM    16.5N  84.4W   17.8N  85.6W   19.0N  86.4W   19.7N  86.8W
LBAR    16.5N  84.4W   18.1N  85.7W   19.9N  86.5W   21.8N  86.3W
SHIP        55KTS          68KTS          76KTS          79KTS
DSHP        55KTS          68KTS          76KTS          79KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101014  0000   101015  0000   101016  0000   101017  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.9N  87.6W   17.0N  88.0W   14.2N  90.3W   12.4N  94.1W
BAMD    22.3N  86.2W   26.3N  79.1W   31.5N  62.0W   32.2N  45.0W
BAMM    20.1N  87.1W   20.3N  86.0W   20.9N  85.3W   21.8N  84.9W
LBAR    23.8N  84.4W   29.4N  73.7W   33.6N  57.6W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        80KTS          71KTS          54KTS          49KTS
DSHP        80KTS          71KTS          54KTS          49KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.5N LONCUR =  84.4W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  15.2N LONM12 =  83.2W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  13.7N LONM24 =  81.1W
WNDCUR =   55KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS =  998MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  130NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =   30NM RD34SW =   30NM RD34NW =  60NM
 


And the BAMD has a Fla Keys hit. That makes two.

[KWT]

I suspect CBS the NHC track will show a track possibly towards S.Florida or maybe even reaching it by 120hrs by tommorow. I don't buy the GFDL's pace, looks too quick to me given its not exactly racing away at the moment....

Also worth noting the increasing amount of models hinting at a NE Yucatan hit 48-72hrs down the line...seems very possible to me given the way the center appears to be a little west of the the NHC expectations.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I suspect CBS the NHC track will show a track possibly towards S.Florida or maybe even reaching it by 120hrs by tommorow. I don't buy the GFDL's pace, looks too quick to me given its not exactly racing away at the moment....

Also worth noting the increasing amount of models hinting at a NE Yucatan hit 48-72hrs down the line...seems very possible to me given the way the center appears to be a little west of the the NHC expectations.

You can actually add the GFS and Nogaps to the list of models showing a more northerly track towards the florida straits but those models showed the system to be weak at that point and a weak system would respond to the weak steering currents at the lower levels. The GFDL and the BAMD/Ships are now showing a stronger system that responds to the stronger mid and upper level steering flow.

[brunota2003]

What is the RI Index at?

[gatorcane]

Mid to upper-level steering will be from the sw. A stronger Paula will move ne rather than east.

[SouthDadeFish]

What is the RI Index at?

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/10101200AL1810_ships.txt

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Mid to upper-level steering will be from the sw. A stronger Paula will move ne rather than east.

If you look at the GFS mid an upper level flow at 72 hours it's more ENE I believe.

[KWT]

You can actually add the GFS and Nogaps to the list of models showing a more northerly track towards the florida straits but those models showed the system to be weak at that point and a weak system would respond to the weak steering currents at the lower levels. The GFDL and the BAMD/Ships are now showing a stronger system that responds to the stronger mid and upper level steering flow.

I think at the moment the most likely solution is the system does indeed get far enough north to latch onto the upper trough which pulls it out to the NE/ENE, as I said my only problem with the GFDL is its probably too quick but I think that track isn't gonna be far off what happens...its very close to Wilma's track...

[SouthDadeFish]

Mid to upper-level steering will be from the sw. A stronger Paula will move ne rather than east.

true, but by 120 hours GFS shows it turning more westward.

[brunota2003]

What is the RI Index at?

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/10101200AL1810_ships.txt

Thanks! That is pretty high too.

[SouthDadeFish]

Yup and rightfully so. Statistical models seem to be spot on in my opinion. They show quick intensification at first then a leveling off around 80-85 knots, which is what I would forecast. But then again, I'm just some guy

[KWT]

What is the RI Index at?

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/10101200AL1810_ships.txt

Thanks! That is pretty high too.

Yeah, then again they've been high all season, I suspect thats partly due to the much higher SST's/heat content compared to normal thus far.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

You can actually add the GFS and Nogaps to the list of models showing a more northerly track towards the florida straits but those models showed the system to be weak at that point and a weak system would respond to the weak steering currents at the lower levels. The GFDL and the BAMD/Ships are now showing a stronger system that responds to the stronger mid and upper level steering flow.

I think at the moment the most likely solution is the system does indeed get far enough north to latch onto the upper trough which pulls it out to the NE/ENE, as I said my only problem with the GFDL is its probably too quick but I think that track isn't gonna be far off what happens...its very close to Wilma's track...

All the models that bring Paula more northerly icluding the GFDL, GFS, NoGaps and BAMD all are in the same time frame with the storm at western Cuba in 48 hours and around the keys at 72-78 hours.

[brunota2003]

Well, looking at it I think it could IR into a Cat 2 or 3 by tomorrow afternoon, but I don't think it'll get higher due to land (during the actual RI process).

[KWT]

All the models that bring Paula more northerly icluding the GFDL, GFS, NoGaps and BAMD all are in the same time frame with the storm at western Cuba in 48 hours and around the keys at 72-78 hours.

Of which 3 of those models are based off of the GFS synoptics anyway and are likely therefore to follow the GFS pretty closely, esp the GFDL its normally a mirror image of the GFS but just with a better idea of strength...and the Nogaps isn't exactly world known to be a good tropical model...

All that being said I'll keep on saying, the diea is right IMO but just a little too fast, esp past 48hrs.

[HURRICANELONNY]

One thing that doesn't make sense to me. Is a strong cold front is expected to clear the state Thurs- Fri time frame. An early front. How the heck does the NHC think it won't get picked up. If it's such a strong trof. Even if the trof heads east quick. It would still pick Paula up. I'm using logic not models.

[gatorcane]

Interesting that one of the gfs ensembles takes this just north of lake okeechobee. No way mainland south Florida can be ruled out at this point.