ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[sunnyday]

Latest in the online newspaper.."Early forecasts take Paula in a circle, taking Florida out of play for now." Accurate? What circle?

[KWT]

Hmmm looks like something of a warm spot starting to show itself on that image above, not too strong yet but given the way the colder tops have blown up around it wouldn't be all that surprising to see recon find a solid eyewall at least on the northern side.

IMO probably close to hurricane strength, recon will find out either way...

[Evil Jeremy]

Latest in the online newspaper.."Early forecasts take Paula in a circle, taking Florida out of play for now." Accurate? What circle?

Not accurate as off the 18z computer models. The NHC forecasts (as of 5PM) Paula to take a small loop while near the Yucatan.

[Vortex]

Hmmm looks like something of a warm spot starting to show itself on that image above, not too strong yet but given the way the colder tops have blown up around it wouldn't be all that surprising to see recon find a solid eyewall at least on the northern side.

IMO probably close to hurricane strength, recon will find out either way...

kwt, I was just thinking that myself....this storm means business and is wasting no time...

[cyclonic chronic]

an eyewall deffinately seems to be forming.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

is there a new micro out yet to compare. i think its undergoing R.I. this could be a perfect chance for recon to sample a rapidly intensifying T.S./hurricane. im really tired, but i dont want to miss, maybe the last chance this season, to watch a t.s. R.I. into a major hurricane. tho if i stay up it wont and if i go to bed it will. murphy's law or chaos theory, u tell me.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Now I am confused. I've been reading about Paula's stalling, and now it's too close for comfort. Are both scenarios still considered a possibility?

Pretty much, the combination of those two factors is everything but a contradiction.

The fact that there's a distinct possibility that Paula might stall/meander over the NW Carib (most potent waters in the basin) makes it too close for comfort.

[hurricaneCW]

When does the next recon flight begin?

[SouthDadeFish]

an eyewall deffinately seems to be forming.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

is there a new micro out yet to compare. i think its undergoing R.I. this could be a perfect chance for recon to sample a rapidly intensifying T.S./hurricane. im really tired, but i dont want to miss, maybe the last chance this season, to watch a t.s. R.I. into a major hurricane. tho if i stay up it wont and if i go to bed it will. murphy's law or chaos theory, u tell me.

put a dummy to bed then stay up and watch it so chaos theory will have it develop still

[HurricaneQueen]

Local newspaper says Paula's early models spare Florida.

From Jim Cantore's tweet at 17:48: "Upcoming potential nor'easter pattern won't be enough to dig #Paula out of the deep tropics thus low probability for US impacts right now."

No wonder people become complacent and end up scrambling around preparing at the last minute with irresponsible reporting such has been indicated here today from various news outlets. While we all know it is too early to know for sure the impact of Paula, to say there is no or low chance of a US impact is ridiculous.

I spent my 60th birthday hunkered down inland in a motel with hubby, dog, cat & all of our hurricane supplies. Hope the same doesn't happen for my upcoming 65th! I'm just a couple of weeks post major surgery and couldn't handle things the way I did 5 years ago for Wilma. Go away Paula.

[HURAKAN]

When does the next recon flight begin?

Code: Select all

 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
        A. 12/0600Z
        B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
        C. 12/0200Z
        D. 16.0N 83.5W
        E. 12/0500Z TO 12/0900Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

plane leaves by 10 pm, should arrive by 2 am

[cyclonic chronic]

lol good call south dade

[MGC]

Paula sure is producing some impressive convection. I'd imagine the pace of intensification should increase the futher the system removes itself from the Honduran coast. Paula could be a hurricane when recon arrives later tonight. I'm not sold on the stall and fester in the NW Caribbean. I'm leaning on the GFDL solution, across western Cuba or Florida Straights. There goes my Florida Keys vacation next week.....MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

When does the next recon flight begin?

Code: Select all

 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
        A. 12/0600Z
        B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
        C. 12/0200Z
        D. 16.0N 83.5W
        E. 12/0500Z TO 12/0900Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

plane leaves by 10 pm, should arrive by 2 am

This morning's flight left at 10AM and got to the coordinates where the NHC is placing the center by 1:18PM, or at least that is when the data was posted here, so we should be getting quality information well before 2 AM.

[KWT]

MGC, yeah its looking ever more impressive, I think recon will find 65kts in there but we will see, much depends on how advanced the NE Eyewall is right now.

[Vortex]

When does the next recon flight begin?

Code: Select all

 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
        A. 12/0600Z
        B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
        C. 12/0200Z
        D. 16.0N 83.5W
        E. 12/0500Z TO 12/0900Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

plane leaves by 10 pm, should arrive by 2 am

If there's ever a time to burn the midnight oil than its tonight...may be classic RI taking place as we speak...regardless, strengthening appears to be continuing and it's fascinating to watch this storm unfold...

[cycloneye]

Image at 115z. Warm spot?

[CrazyC83]

Clearly a closed eye. I'd go 60 kt for the intensity at 11 pm, just to be a bit conservative until the Recon comes. If Recon finds a cane, issue a Special Advisory around 1:30 to 2 am.

[KWT]

Yeah Crazy thats pretty conclusive really, I strongly suspect recon finds a hurricane if that microwave image is correct...

[CrazyC83]

Yeah Crazy thats pretty conclusive really, I strongly suspect recon finds a hurricane if that microwave image is correct...

That is 2 hours old as well. I'd say we have a hurricane except with Recon soon I would wait and let the intensity skyrocket then.

[SouthDadeFish]

WOW!!! If you put the microwave image with current IR imagery, that warm spot could very well be the beginnings of an eye. I thought all this Rapid Intensification talk was an exaggeration, but clearly that's not the case. Folks we have a rapidly intensifying system on our hands. If only I could stay up till two am to see what recon finds lol