ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[fci]

The local radio met said, in the same vein as the newspaper, that the storm will likely weaken during days 4 and 5 and move n/nw as a sheared storm, so there are no worries now. What did the new GFDL show?

Don't put all your eggs in one basket, especially when its local media, which has been known to mess info up. South Florida needs to keep a big eye on this system. There are no worries yet, but don't let your guard down at all.

I know that the statement is well intended, but what exactly is "the guard"?
You live down here.
Do you really think there is apathy as it relates to Hurricanes and their threats?

[Evil Jeremy]

"GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND
48 HOURS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK
REMAINS QUITE LOW."

Their new track seems like a compromise between their previous track and the model guidance.

[Florida1118]

According to Wunderground's graphics, extreme SW FL is now in the cone.

Its creeping up on yall down there....but its still got more than 5 days to change of course.

[wxman57]

"GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND
48 HOURS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK
REMAINS QUITE LOW."

Their new track seems like a compromise between their previous track and the model guidance.

Yes, it's a middle of the road compromise track between two extremes. Almost guaranteed to be wrong, but which way to go?

[gatorcane]

It's very hard to believe this trough won't pick this up especially since it is now expected to move north more quickly and Paula will likely be tapping into the 200 to 300mb steering since it is rapidly deepening.

[caneseddy]

"GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND
48 HOURS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK
REMAINS QUITE LOW."

Their new track seems like a compromise between their previous track and the model guidance.

Yes, it's a middle of the road compromise track between two extremes. Almost guaranteed to be wrong, but which way to go?

I think they will wait until the 00Z models come in to narrow the cone tomorrow...however, for now, they are hedging their bets which I'm ok with because it is just developing..hopefully, now that this is on the brink of a hurricane (if not one now), we can get the new runs to be more consistent and reflect the storm's intensity (although the 00Z NAM shows Paula weak and crashing into Belize/YP)

One thing I definitely disagree on is the weakening to a minimal TS...they must think the shear is going to knock it out, but we know how intensity is hard to forecasr

[Evil Jeremy]

"GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND
48 HOURS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK
REMAINS QUITE LOW."

Their new track seems like a compromise between their previous track and the model guidance.

Yes, it's a middle of the road compromise track between two extremes. Almost guaranteed to be wrong, but which way to go?

I personally would follow the model trend, and the trend is north.

[cycloneye]

wxmam57, do you see Paula weakening to a 45kt storm on day 5?

[AdamFirst]

It's very hard to believe this trough won't pick this up especially since it is now expected to move north more quickly and Paula will likely be tapping into the 200 to 300mb steering since it is rapidly deepening.

What would that translate towards?

[dixiebreeze]

11/2345 UTC 16.3N 84.4W T3.0/3.0 PAULA -- Atlantic

[SouthDadeFish]

If the 00Z models continue to move north, the 5 am track will lean towards that solution and more of SFL will be in the cone. However, the Yucatan will have to deal with Paula first and face the threat of a direct landfall.

[Vortex]

Those that have been around this board for the many years that I ahave know I never bash NHC...However, i felt that discussion was very weak at best...

[Evil Jeremy]

.However, i felt that discussion was very weak at best...

That just shows that the center is very unsure about this storm. They don't want to say anything definative that might bite them back later on.

[SFLcane]

If the 00Z models continue to move north, the 5 am track will lean towards that solution and more of SFL will be in the cone. However, the Yucatan will have to deal with Paula first and face the threat of a direct landfall.

actually if you look at the (real models) most of them keep this in the caribbean.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif

[Evil Jeremy]

If the 00Z models continue to move north, the 5 am track will lean towards that solution and more of SFL will be in the cone. However, the Yucatan will have to deal with Paula first and face the threat of a direct landfall.

actually if you look at the (real models) most of them keep this in the caribbean.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif

1: Those are only part of the (real) models. The late guidance ones are not in that image. That batch includes some heavyweights, like the GFDL, HWRF, CMC, etc.
2: The models are still trending north.

[Weatherfreak000]

^^
Of course we are looking at the initial track. This is the same situation we face with every storm. I know you guys in SFL are concerned- as you should be. But we need to sleep on this storm for what...48 hours before the track is at all certain? It's going to meander for a while so alot of time...


I will say this, I can see this going Cat 5. And if that brings it anywhere close to any landfall SFL southward that would be very unfortunate. I guess this is what everyone was waiting to see

[AdamFirst]

Local CBS met says although Florida is in the cone slightly it is not a concern at a moment...more mention of the piece of energy that's breaking off from Paula over Cuba and heading north towards Florida...basically carving a hole in the dry air

[Recurve]

Judging from the satellite, I should be seeing high cirrus fringe from that far northern band overhead. Guess I'll go look.

Somewhat OT: If I was writing a story right now for the paper, I'd say "no immediate threat" from Paula. Doesn't mean it won't ever come here. Doesn't mean put on your ear muffs and put out the Christmas decorations in the yard cause the season's over. I think some of you can stop worrying that a few words in a news report will cause people to go into hibernation and be killed by floodwaters in their sleep. South florida will know there's a tropical storm in the Caribbean. Most journalists, believe it or not, put a lot of faith in facts, and the fact is Paula ain't on a direct path for the Keys or Miami yet. We don't tell people to start worrying because they may have to put up shutters and even evacuate later in the week.

Edit: However, if you want to say Florida's going to get hit and have the credentials to back it up, I'll be glad to quote you.

[Florida1118]

Paula is looking to be not a nice and fair lady...

[Evil Jeremy]

Judging from the satellite, I should be seeing high cirrus fringe from that far northern band overhead. Guess I'll go look.

Somewhat OT: If I was writing a story right now for the paper, I'd say "no immediate threat" from Paula. Doesn't mean it won't ever come here. Doesn't mean put on your ear muffs and put out the Christmas decorations in the yard cause the season's over. I think some of you can stop worrying that a few words in a news report will cause people to go into hibernation and be killed by floodwaters in their sleep. South florida will know there's a tropical storm in the Caribbean. Most journalists, believe it or not, put a lot of faith in facts, and the fact is Paula ain't on a direct path for the Keys or Miami yet. We don't tell people to start worrying because they may have to put up shutters and even evacuate later in the week.

Edit: However, if you want to say Florida's going to get hit and have the credentials to back it up, I'll be glad to quote you.

We don't need to tell people to start worrying, but saying "no immediate threat", especially after the non-event of Matthew, gives people a false sense of security. We need to let people know to stay on their guard and check for updates, at least for now.