ATL: PAULA - Recon Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

No VDM?

Center over land? Or can't sample the winds to the west?

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 111828
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982010
A. 11/18:11:40Z
B. 15 deg 42 min N
083 deg 45 min W
C. NA
D. 39 kt
E. 314 deg 24 nm
F. 028 deg 46 kt
G. 305 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 22 C / 462 m
J. 23 C / 465 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 01HHA INVEST OB 11
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 18:04:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
FAIR SPIRAL BAND NW AROUND TO NE
OUTBOUND FL WIND 42 KTS NE QUAD 18:15:10Z
;

[cycloneye]

Who has the google maps?

[brunota2003]

Look for them to do another pass through the area where they recorded the 77 knots earlier. They will be trying to verify the winds prior to the advisory...I think this time around they might find speeds supporting 50 knots, but they probably hit something unsupportive of the current sustained winds with the 77 knots.

[SouthDadeFish]

Nothing close to what they found last fix. Must have been a burst.

[CrazyC83]

Probably was a transient feature. The next pass will tell the tale on the intensity. If that is semi-representative, 55 kt seems reasonable; if not, 45 kt.

[KWT]

I think 50kts is probably a fair middle ground call from the NHC in the end.

Next flight will be interesting given it should occur close to Dmax.

[cycloneye]

Plane is on route towards Paula. Will it find a hurricane? Around 1:30 AM we will find out.

[SouthDadeFish]

Paula has to be a hurricane. I'm guessing a pressure around 990-992 mb.

[brunota2003]

Paula still has that RI hook, so I believe they are going to fly straight into a system that is just beginning RI. Should find winds supporting hurricane force within the first pass or two, and possibly a Cat 2/3 by the time they leave.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

Very possible. I agree. I just looked at a shear graphic, which lead me to believe RI is almost likely. One of the most anticipated recon fixes I can remember

[cycloneye]

Anyone wants to post the google maps at recon thread to follow the plane?

[SouthDadeFish]

Whats wrong with recon's flight level winds?

[x-y-no]

Whats wrong with recon's flight level winds?

Nothing wrong with them that I can see.

[Aquawind]

I was late so will post it here... Nice job SouthFloridawx!

[SouthFloridawx]

That's okay. I am going to have to go to bed early tonight. Gotta go into work early tomorrow...

[SouthFloridawx]

Whats wrong with recon's flight level winds?

Nothing wrong with them that I can see.

They aren't at operational Altitude. You'll see the other sets of numbers once they descend as they get closer to Paula.

[SouthDadeFish]

Whats wrong with recon's flight level winds?

Nothing wrong with them that I can see.

Why are they all at least 50 knots?

[brunota2003]

I think the reason why is because there is probably a strong jet over that portion of the GOM.

[Aquawind]

Well said.