ATL: PAULA - Models

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Interesting that one of the gfs ensembles takes this just north of lake okeechobee.

link please

[gatorcane]

Interesting that one of the gfs ensembles takes this just north of lake okeechobee.

link please

See swfmd graphic on previous page.

[Tropics Guy]

Interesting that one of the gfs ensembles takes this just north of lake okeechobee.

link please

See swfmd graphic on previous page.

South FL in the crosshairs of the GFS ensembles, though other models show other solutions. Will be interesting to see if the first trough/front coming down will pick Paula up & shunt her NE or ENE towards Cuba / FL Straights / South FL or will she just meander around in the NW Carib for awhile.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

TG

[Dean4Storms]

One thing that doesn't make sense to me. Is a strong cold front is expected to clear the state Thurs- Fri time frame. An early front. How the heck does the NHC think it won't get picked up. If it's such a strong trof. Even if the trof heads east quick. It would still pick Paula up. I'm using logic not models.

I could be wrong but I think it is due to the direction in which the trough digs. A more NW to SE swinging front would surely pick it up, but a more north to southward diving front could actually trap it. I believe that is why some of the models have it missing the trough.

[Vortex]

All GFS ensembles over South florida....



http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[Dean4Storms]

Here's a depiction of what I'm talking about. Notice the front is oriented more west to east dropping due south over the Gulf and Florida instead of being oriented more SW to NE across the Gulf.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=wbg

[caneseddy]

00Z NAM out to 60 hours keeps Paula in the Gulf of Honduras off Belize

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 7_060l.gif

At 66 hours, takes it inland into Belize/YP

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 7_066l.gif

This run keeps Paula weak all the way through to landfall, which is not likely to be the case with the way Paula is looking now...but it's the NAM

[SouthFloridawx]

About 20 Mins till the new GFS.

[DESTRUCTION5]

54 hrs in the channel..

[DESTRUCTION5]

Stationary..

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yawn....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like its drying up here in same spot 5 days

[Weatherfreak000]

insane amount of uncertainty here...

[psyclone]

that scenario, boring as it may be, seems reasonable with another dump of Thanksgiving-like air on the way. it's also pretty close to the current nhc forecast.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well on day 7 Paula is dead while a new rises from the same spot...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Note this is not PAula...Its who ever is next....lol

[Florida1118]

So Richard by the 19th per GFS. Great.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z Nogaps is Farther north and stalls it out over the Keys.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2010101200&set=Tropical

[Aquawind]

So Richard by the 19th per GFS. Great.

Models Schmodels..He looks like a whimp versus Paula at this point...

[FireRat]

Models seem to pick out what may be a heck of an end game for the 2010 season. Wouldn't surprise me to see multiple Caribbean storms by Thanksgiving.