ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#821 Postby Vortex » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:10 pm

12 hours ago we didn't even have a TD(officially) and now were on the brink of a hurricane....

I have a question...If we get a cat 3, 4 or even stronger with an anti-cyclone overhead would or could this have any impact on the direction/strength of the winds at 200mb assuming it takes aim at the keys/sfl?
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#822 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:12 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:From the latest satellite image of Paula, looks like it could undergo rapid intensification.



I agree. Nothing in the AVN loop excludes it. I'd say major a good possibility now.
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6367
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#823 Postby boca » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:13 pm

Isn't it true the more intense a storm gets the more poleward they tend to go most of the time?
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#824 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:14 pm

boca wrote:Isn't it true the more intense a storm gets the more poleward they tend to go most of the time?

Yes.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#825 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:19 pm

And the NHC continue to be conservative with Paula, I wonder why they have been so reluctant to make higher estimations.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145328
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#826 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:20 pm

Paula for sure will surpass the 150 ACE units line that the Atlantic needs to be hyperactive. Here is what she has so far. See the Atlantic ACE totals at Talking tropics forum.

Code: Select all

18L.Paula
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 11 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
2 11 October 11 pm EDT 60 0.3600
Total       0.61
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6367
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#827 Postby boca » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:21 pm

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY. 500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -12 TO -16 RANGE WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT

The reason why I posted this is to show that the front is in Texas and will have an effect on the steering more than what the models are showing now.I think this will pull up Paula closer to Florida then what the models are showing.
0 likes   

Florida1118

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#828 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:26 pm

boca wrote:NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY. 500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -12 TO -16 RANGE WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT

The reason why I posted this is to show that the front is in Texas and will have an effect on the steering more than what the models are showing now.I think this will pull up Paula closer to Florida then what the models are showing.

I really cant restist staying up until 5am, just to see how their track shifts....but I guess thats what the archives are for.
0 likes   

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#829 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:27 pm

boca wrote:NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY. 500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -12 TO -16 RANGE WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT

The reason why I posted this is to show that the front is in Texas and will have an effect on the steering more than what the models are showing now.I think this will pull up Paula closer to Florida then what the models are showing.



You left out the rest of the forecast...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN ITS SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AND REALLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION TO CONROE TO CLEVELAND.
THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER HOUSTON AND TRINITY COUNTIES. WILL SEND
OUT AN UPDATED FORECAST SHORTLY.
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#830 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:37 pm

Paula is doing the "Fist". Better hope that trough doesn't pick it up directly.
0 likes   

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 910
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#831 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:39 pm

Recurve wrote:Judging from the satellite, I should be seeing high cirrus fringe from that far northern band overhead. Guess I'll go look.

Somewhat OT: If I was writing a story right now for the paper, I'd say "no immediate threat" from Paula. Doesn't mean it won't ever come here. Doesn't mean put on your ear muffs and put out the Christmas decorations in the yard cause the season's over. I think some of you can stop worrying that a few words in a news report will cause people to go into hibernation and be killed by floodwaters in their sleep. South florida will know there's a tropical storm in the Caribbean. Most journalists, believe it or not, put a lot of faith in facts, and the fact is Paula ain't on a direct path for the Keys or Miami yet. We don't tell people to start worrying because they may have to put up shutters and even evacuate later in the week.

Edit: However, if you want to say Florida's going to get hit and have the credentials to back it up, I'll be glad to quote you.


Evening Recurve,

Looks like we r watching again, at least I had the shutters installed last weekend, so feel better about that.
0 likes   

floridastorm88
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:23 pm

#832 Postby floridastorm88 » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:45 pm

:eek: watchin it like a hawk....... im gonna take a nap and hope its gone when i wake up good nite and good luck
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#833 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:12 pm

don't think this is getting any better organized at the moment. Recon at the yucatan channel we'll find out soon.
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#834 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:15 pm

Yeah it seems like it wasn't rapidly intensifying after all, Paula doesn't look that great in the latest IR as it did a couple of hours ago.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145328
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#835 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:17 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

#836 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:23 pm

Doesn't look that great? Looks fine to me. I think it's a hurricane.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#837 Postby fci » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:28 pm

Recurve wrote:Judging from the satellite, I should be seeing high cirrus fringe from that far northern band overhead. Guess I'll go look.

Somewhat OT: If I was writing a story right now for the paper, I'd say "no immediate threat" from Paula. Doesn't mean it won't ever come here. Doesn't mean put on your ear muffs and put out the Christmas decorations in the yard cause the season's over. I think some of you can stop worrying that a few words in a news report will cause people to go into hibernation and be killed by floodwaters in their sleep. South florida will know there's a tropical storm in the Caribbean. Most journalists, believe it or not, put a lot of faith in facts, and the fact is Paula ain't on a direct path for the Keys or Miami yet. We don't tell people to start worrying because they may have to put up shutters and even evacuate later in the week.

Edit: However, if you want to say Florida's going to get hit and have the credentials to back it up, I'll be glad to quote you.


Bravo!
You have said exactly what I have tried to say, only better! 8-)
0 likes   

User avatar
CourierPR
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1335
Age: 71
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re:

#838 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:31 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Doesn't look that great? Looks fine to me. I think it's a hurricane.
I just looked at the RAMSDIS page and Paula looks really good which might wind up being really bad for some folks in a few days.
0 likes   

Florida1118

Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#839 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:32 pm

Recurve wrote:Judging from the satellite, I should be seeing high cirrus fringe from that far northern band overhead. Guess I'll go look.

Somewhat OT: If I was writing a story right now for the paper, I'd say "no immediate threat" from Paula. Doesn't mean it won't ever come here. Doesn't mean put on your ear muffs and put out the Christmas decorations in the yard cause the season's over. I think some of you can stop worrying that a few words in a news report will cause people to go into hibernation and be killed by floodwaters in their sleep. South florida will know there's a tropical storm in the Caribbean. Most journalists, believe it or not, put a lot of faith in facts, and the fact is Paula ain't on a direct path for the Keys or Miami yet. We don't tell people to start worrying because they may have to put up shutters and even evacuate later in the week.

Edit: However, if you want to say Florida's going to get hit and have the credentials to back it up, I'll be glad to quote you.

But like when Igor was around, a wonderful jounalist said it was going to strike Hati, and flood the Island over. They too are just media and want attention for their stories. Im not saying all are like this, but some stretch the truth and lie quite a bit....
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re:

#840 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:39 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Doesn't look that great? Looks fine to me. I think it's a hurricane.


It still looks good but IMO looked a little better a a couple of hours ago, cloud tops have warmed and convection is less symmetric though it must be a question of time for convection to increase again as D-max is approaching.
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests