ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion
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12 hours ago we didn't even have a TD(officially) and now were on the brink of a hurricane....
I have a question...If we get a cat 3, 4 or even stronger with an anti-cyclone overhead would or could this have any impact on the direction/strength of the winds at 200mb assuming it takes aim at the keys/sfl?
I have a question...If we get a cat 3, 4 or even stronger with an anti-cyclone overhead would or could this have any impact on the direction/strength of the winds at 200mb assuming it takes aim at the keys/sfl?
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ptarmigan wrote:From the latest satellite image of Paula, looks like it could undergo rapid intensification.
I agree. Nothing in the AVN loop excludes it. I'd say major a good possibility now.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Isn't it true the more intense a storm gets the more poleward they tend to go most of the time?
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
boca wrote:Isn't it true the more intense a storm gets the more poleward they tend to go most of the time?
Yes.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
And the NHC continue to be conservative with Paula, I wonder why they have been so reluctant to make higher estimations.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Paula for sure will surpass the 150 ACE units line that the Atlantic needs to be hyperactive. Here is what she has so far. See the Atlantic ACE totals at Talking tropics forum.
Code: Select all
18L.Paula
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 11 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
2 11 October 11 pm EDT 60 0.3600
Total 0.61
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY. 500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -12 TO -16 RANGE WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT
The reason why I posted this is to show that the front is in Texas and will have an effect on the steering more than what the models are showing now.I think this will pull up Paula closer to Florida then what the models are showing.
920 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY. 500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -12 TO -16 RANGE WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT
The reason why I posted this is to show that the front is in Texas and will have an effect on the steering more than what the models are showing now.I think this will pull up Paula closer to Florida then what the models are showing.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
boca wrote:NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY. 500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -12 TO -16 RANGE WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT
The reason why I posted this is to show that the front is in Texas and will have an effect on the steering more than what the models are showing now.I think this will pull up Paula closer to Florida then what the models are showing.
I really cant restist staying up until 5am, just to see how their track shifts....but I guess thats what the archives are for.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
boca wrote:NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY. 500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -12 TO -16 RANGE WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT
The reason why I posted this is to show that the front is in Texas and will have an effect on the steering more than what the models are showing now.I think this will pull up Paula closer to Florida then what the models are showing.
You left out the rest of the forecast...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN ITS SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH AND REALLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION TO CONROE TO CLEVELAND. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER HOUSTON AND TRINITY COUNTIES. WILL SEND
OUT AN UPDATED FORECAST SHORTLY.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Paula is doing the "Fist". Better hope that trough doesn't pick it up directly.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recurve wrote:Judging from the satellite, I should be seeing high cirrus fringe from that far northern band overhead. Guess I'll go look.
Somewhat OT: If I was writing a story right now for the paper, I'd say "no immediate threat" from Paula. Doesn't mean it won't ever come here. Doesn't mean put on your ear muffs and put out the Christmas decorations in the yard cause the season's over. I think some of you can stop worrying that a few words in a news report will cause people to go into hibernation and be killed by floodwaters in their sleep. South florida will know there's a tropical storm in the Caribbean. Most journalists, believe it or not, put a lot of faith in facts, and the fact is Paula ain't on a direct path for the Keys or Miami yet. We don't tell people to start worrying because they may have to put up shutters and even evacuate later in the week.
Edit: However, if you want to say Florida's going to get hit and have the credentials to back it up, I'll be glad to quote you.
Evening Recurve,
Looks like we r watching again, at least I had the shutters installed last weekend, so feel better about that.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
don't think this is getting any better organized at the moment. Recon at the yucatan channel we'll find out soon.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Yeah it seems like it wasn't rapidly intensifying after all, Paula doesn't look that great in the latest IR as it did a couple of hours ago.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recurve wrote:Judging from the satellite, I should be seeing high cirrus fringe from that far northern band overhead. Guess I'll go look.
Somewhat OT: If I was writing a story right now for the paper, I'd say "no immediate threat" from Paula. Doesn't mean it won't ever come here. Doesn't mean put on your ear muffs and put out the Christmas decorations in the yard cause the season's over. I think some of you can stop worrying that a few words in a news report will cause people to go into hibernation and be killed by floodwaters in their sleep. South florida will know there's a tropical storm in the Caribbean. Most journalists, believe it or not, put a lot of faith in facts, and the fact is Paula ain't on a direct path for the Keys or Miami yet. We don't tell people to start worrying because they may have to put up shutters and even evacuate later in the week.
Edit: However, if you want to say Florida's going to get hit and have the credentials to back it up, I'll be glad to quote you.
Bravo!
You have said exactly what I have tried to say, only better!

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Re:
I just looked at the RAMSDIS page and Paula looks really good which might wind up being really bad for some folks in a few days.AdamFirst wrote:Doesn't look that great? Looks fine to me. I think it's a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: PAULA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recurve wrote:Judging from the satellite, I should be seeing high cirrus fringe from that far northern band overhead. Guess I'll go look.
Somewhat OT: If I was writing a story right now for the paper, I'd say "no immediate threat" from Paula. Doesn't mean it won't ever come here. Doesn't mean put on your ear muffs and put out the Christmas decorations in the yard cause the season's over. I think some of you can stop worrying that a few words in a news report will cause people to go into hibernation and be killed by floodwaters in their sleep. South florida will know there's a tropical storm in the Caribbean. Most journalists, believe it or not, put a lot of faith in facts, and the fact is Paula ain't on a direct path for the Keys or Miami yet. We don't tell people to start worrying because they may have to put up shutters and even evacuate later in the week.
Edit: However, if you want to say Florida's going to get hit and have the credentials to back it up, I'll be glad to quote you.
But like when Igor was around, a wonderful jounalist said it was going to strike Hati, and flood the Island over. They too are just media and want attention for their stories. Im not saying all are like this, but some stretch the truth and lie quite a bit....
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Re:
AdamFirst wrote:Doesn't look that great? Looks fine to me. I think it's a hurricane.
It still looks good but IMO looked a little better a a couple of hours ago, cloud tops have warmed and convection is less symmetric though it must be a question of time for convection to increase again as D-max is approaching.
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