ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Florida1118]

Doesn't look that great? Looks fine to me. I think it's a hurricane.

It still looks good but IMO looked a little better a a couple of hours ago, cloud tops have warmed and convection is less symmetric though it must be a question of time for convection to increase again as D-max is approaching.

Its got about 1 hour until 2am is writen. If She can gain, or if recon finds something, boom. 9th of the Season.

[SouthFloridawx]

Doesn't look that great? Looks fine to me. I think it's a hurricane.

It still looks good but IMO looked a little better a a couple of hours ago, cloud tops have warmed and convection is less symmetric though it must be a question of time for convection to increase again as D-max is approaching.

Its got about 1 hour until 2am is writen. If She can gain, or if recon finds something, boom. 9th of the Season.

Probably won't get a VDM till after that. 60MPH is a pretty good est.
Edit: Meant to say MPH, not KTS

[Florida1118]

Probably won't get a VDM till after that. 60KTS is a pretty good est.

Ya they probably will wait until Recon gets there and finds something, or VDM.

[SouthFloridawx]

Still some pretty cold cloud tops. You can see some of the curved banding near the center.

[Vortex]

The overall envelope continues to expand as does the convection. The very deep convection(-80C) continues over and near the center..There are hints of an eye or eye like feature developing...Run the loop below and it gives you a very good idea how quickly this storm continues to expand and develop.....

Loop:

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[FireRat]

With that mean looking "face", you know this one means business, almost looks like a skull LOL.

[Ptarmigan]

I think Paula could be a hurricane by morning.

[Aquawind]

I think Paula could be a hurricane by morning.

Yep! Bigger but, not a RI monster at this point with warming tops ATM..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[cyclonic chronic]

i dont see any fat lady singing comments now. oops. this was prob a minimal t.s. when we woke up mon morn. sat had it at 2.0. prob a depression 18 hrs. before that, TCR will be an interesting read. im curious to see how the NHC grades itself on this one. tho we are all human. one thing ive noticed the last 12 hrs. is that it has gotten more humid here in s.w. fl. this is the first night in about 10 days that ive left the air on. its still a lil cool but u can deff. feel the humidity has come back. local mets forecasted this to happen 24 hrs from now. so my thinking is paula may not meander in the carib. for a week and lift out sooner. where? lol who knows. the NHC doesnt even seem to know yet as that is a strange looking cone. more and more recon should help with model giudence, if they are initaled right. whatever the case it will be a good storm to track.

[SouthFloridawx]

Nice shot. You can see she is really starting to wrap up. Looks much different from earlier today.

[Ptarmigan]

Yep! Bigger but, not a RI monster at this point with warming tops ATM..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

Let's hope you are right that Paula will not be a RI monster. Those are no good.

[Aquawind]

Heck Paula does not need RI to be an issue..She has plenty of time unfortunately.

[cycloneye]

First pass will be from NE to SW shortly.

[fci]

Interesting how the NHC has Paula ramping up to Cat 2 and then weakening pretty dramatically to a moderate TS at the end of the period.
If that is the case, then even if she were to get picked up and brought to South Florida, it would not be a very big deal.
That's probably why there has been no rush in the media or any talk of Keys evacuation (like there was on this board several hours ago).
The local mets did cover Paula near the top of the newscast and the one I think is the best did show that some models show her coming up to South Florida but there was no "scare" talk up here in Palm Beach County. Nor should there be!

And if the weakening trend in 4-5 days is the case, then any talk of 1924 or Wilma is way off base.
All we can do is wait and see.
IMO, Paula; if ever getting out of the Carib; travels comfortably south of Florida and is a Cuba/Bahamas issue.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Vortex]

Some of you may remember Derek Ortt. He was a contributor to Storm2k for many years until this past May when he embarked on a new position. Derek is now a tropical meteorologist for the TropicsWatch team at ImpactWeather, in Houston, Texas. He regularly contributes to Pensacola New Journal...With his permission I've copied his late night write-up....enjoy!

Posted 10/12/2010 12:00 AM EDT on pnj.com Prod
Paula remains very close to hurricane intensity. In fact, based upon satellite imagery, it is likely a hurricane. It has improved in organization greatly since this afternoon. The storm is far more symmetric, an indication that the shear has decreased over the storm. Paula is likely to intensify significantly during the next day or two, as it moves in the general direction of Cozumel and Cancun. Paula is likely to move near over these resort areas during the day Wednesday. Afterward, a turn to the east-northeast is expected. There is a very high amount of uncertainty at this point. Some of the models indicate a track toward the Miami area, while others keep the system over the Caribbean into next week. Those that bring the storm toward Miami do so in about 3 days from now. Therefore, there is a possibility of a landfall in South Florida Thursday night.

Paula is likely to intensify significantly during the next day or two. When it makes its closest approach to the Yucatan, it is likely to be at least a category 2 hurricane. There is a chance that it could be more intense than that. After this time, there is some question as to how much shear Paula will experience. It is not yet clear if the shear will be in a position to help or hurt the system. Therefore, the forecast is currently for a slow weakening after 48 hours. However, Paula is likely to remain at hurricane intensity through the next several days.

There is no threat to the Pensacola area.

**Everyone reading in South Florida should monitor the progress of Paula very carefully.



Here's the link:

Khttp://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/secti ... 993b9633c0

[cycloneye]

Plane found 58kts at flight level and 47 kts on SMFR uncontaminated or good readings, and has not reached center yet.

[cyclonic chronic]

i dont think talk of wilma is way off base. its a storm in the carib in oct that is gonna recurve to the n.e., eventually. we could argue that it'lll be sheared, go south or stay in the carib., yet the fact remains that there is the potential for danger. may happen, may not, only time can tell. i believe that most mets in s. fl will be singing a diff tune tommrow a.m. and the reason u gotta bring up a keys evac is cause it takes so long to evac. their not gonna take a chance that it'll miss, esp with all the old people flocking south right now. but that call is still a few days out. bottom line; to be aware is to be alive.

[Aquawind]

I think you may be a bit Wilma Bias from that profile pic..

[SouthFloridawx]

Nice outflow to the East... (Rather)

[cyclonic chronic]

i thought that too after i wrote it. lol oh well. lets both hope bonita, naples and ft. myers are in the clear. i gotta tree that i shouldve had cut down in the spring. if the winds are right it would land on my kids bed. so no hurricanes this year please