ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Doesn't look like the NHC is going with a stronger/deeper Paula will go more poleward and be steered by more SW flow. They bumped up her intensity but esentially kept the same track.

I think that the bottom line remains that from a Florida perspective; nothing changes based on the intensity of Paula.
No one sees this as a threat to Florida A's anything more than a sheared TS and most likely she will never get here at all. Concerns for Cancun, Cozumel and Cuba notwithstanding.

A sheared TS doesn't constitute a threat? This still is a threat to FL.

[Aric Dunn]

Paula is becoming the dominant convection in the west Carib and SE GOM area.

That should allow the tropopause to build a dome centered over Paula due to diabatic heating of the upper troposphere.

The effect should be seen as a movement of the anti-cyclone to over the LLC.

This in turn should show up as a reduction in shear around Paula.


[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg[/img


[img]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/real-time/winds/wgEshr-0.GIF[/img


[img]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF[/img

I agree although this process can be slow and its forward motion may bring it to far north into the shear and weaken before the shear relaxes again.

[Aric Dunn]

cancun radar.. the core is coming into view and thats about all that is there .. the core..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?95

[northjaxpro]

Let me add that of course the folks on the northeast end of the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba are now getting a heck of a wake up call with this 'stronger than forecast by the NHC' Cat2 upgrade....and it is on their doorstep.

Most definitely! Praying for the best for the people on the coast of the Yucatan, especially Cozumel, which was devastated back in October 2005 by Wilma. Hopefully, this won't be a repeat of that event, but the possibility of Paula approaching major cat 3 status within the next 24 hours has to have those people down there on edge indeed.

[Evil Jeremy]

"The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products."

I think the NHC will stop playing it safe with their track with the 5PM advisory. Paula's increased strength favors interaction with the shortwave, and the only model south of the current NHC cone 5 days out is the HWRF. I'm not counting the CMC since it looses Paula very quickly. If I was making a cone, I would put the 5 day point at around 23N and 82W.

[fci]

Doesn't look like the NHC is going with a stronger/deeper Paula will go more poleward and be steered by more SW flow. They bumped up her intensity but esentially kept the same track.

I think that the bottom line remains that from a Florida perspective; nothing changes based on the intensity of Paula.
No one sees this as a threat to Florida A's anything more than a sheared TS and most likely she will never get here at all. Concerns for Cancun, Cozumel and Cuba notwithstanding.

A sheared TS doesn't constitute a threat? This still is a threat to FL.

Really.
A threat of what?
Nothing much more than a rainy day with some gusty, summer-thunderstorm like winds.
We are well equipped for 40-50 mph winds and 2-4 inches of rain. Schools would stay open and beach/pool plans would be delayed for a day. A TS in The Idlans with mountains and flood dangers are one thing, in Siuth Florida a TS is no big whoop.

[Evil Jeremy]

Really.
A threat of what?
Nothing much more than a rainy day with some gusty, summer-thunderstorm like winds.
We are well equipped for 40-50 mph winds and 2-4 inches of rain. Schools would stay open and beach/pool plans would be delayed for a day. A TS in The Idlans with mountains and flood dangers are one thing, in Siuth Florida a TS is no big whoop.

I never said it would be a big threat, but you can't just say that the threat doesn't increase with when a tropical system is in play. That is just ridiculous.

Also, this specific storm is still a threat to us because there are many unknowns with it. Even the NHC has low confidence in it's track prediction.

[Ntxw]

The comment about S Florida being equipped to handle a system is not a far-fetched one. Just keep an eye on development as this is an immediate danger to the more vulnerable areas of Cuba and Yucatan and can strengthen as long as it stays in that general area from what I can see, but the further north it gets the more it will feel the effect of westerlies.

It's also a very small storm so it's peripheral impact on S Florida currently is minimal. Though sure has been a surprise storm and you can never neglect one of those.

[GCANE]

Looks like an eyewall hot-tower popping thru on the NE quad.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like an eyewall hot-tower popping thru on the NE quad.

[img]http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES18452010285IW8v6j.jpg[/im]

YEs it does..

[MGC]

I think Paula has a good shot a becoming a major. Her satellite presentation contuines to improve. Looking at the radar, it looks like Paula will pass east of Cozumel and head into the Yucatan Channel.....MGC

[wzrgirl1]

Being that the intensity forecast was inaccurate, do you think that this will change the NHC's thinking as to their track on the 5 p.m. advisory? Or do you think that it will pretty much stay the same??

[Evil Jeremy]

Being that the intensity forecast was inaccurate, do you think that this will change the NHC's thinking as to their track on the 5 p.m. advisory? Or do you think that it will pretty much stay the same??

I think they will finally bump the cone north to above Cuba.

[wzrgirl1]

Being that the intensity forecast was inaccurate, do you think that this will change the NHC's thinking as to their track on the 5 p.m. advisory? Or do you think that it will pretty much stay the same??

I think they will finally bump the cone north to above Cuba.

I am leaning towards that idea as well.

[rjgator]

Here are a couple names that once thought to be relatively small windfields and threats that Florida was "equipt" for Hurricane Charley, extremely small eye made landfall 100 miles almost South of Prediction and 4 hours early and not a cat two but Cat 4 in a couple hours. Yeah very small windfield but not if you live in Punta Gorda or how about the line from there to Daytona Beach that as the Eye opened so did the wind field and I think it left the coast still around 90 moving 20+. Oh yeah then there that Wilma 100 mb drop in 30 hours very small windfield but not if you were in the Yucatan where she sat on your head for 24 + hours hammering you or then basically same issues shear was supposed to rip apart. Well that one tell to anyone in Florida.......

With any Tropic system sitting on red hot water is like a Top Fuel Dragster ready to pop at anytime.

[fci]

Really.
A threat of what?
Nothing much more than a rainy day with some gusty, summer-thunderstorm like winds.
We are well equipped for 40-50 mph winds and 2-4 inches of rain. Schools would stay open and beach/pool plans would be delayed for a day. A TS in The Idlans with mountains and flood dangers are one thing, in Siuth Florida a TS is no big whoop.

I never said it would be a big threat, but you can't just say that the threat doesn't increase with when a tropical system is in play. That is just ridiculous.

Also, this specific storm is still a threat to us because there are many unknowns with it. Even the NHC has low confidence in it's track prediction.

Jeremy, we have differing opinions of the word "threat".
Almost every summer day there is the threat of severe weather here and no one is worried.
I was born here and gave lived mist of my life here and when I was a kid the prospect of any named system was a thrill. The reality is that a fast moving sheared TS just means little. Nicole, Ernesto are good examples of "who cares". Now when you get a Fay that moves slow and drops 15-25 inches of rain or Irene, it is a different story.
Paula at this time poses little threat at all to South Florida and people don't care about a sheared fast moving TS.
That is the reality as this veteran sees it.

[FLpanhandle91]

Pockets of -80º cloud tops showing up south and west of the center on IR.

[wzrgirl1]

Really.
A threat of what?
Nothing much more than a rainy day with some gusty, summer-thunderstorm like winds.
We are well equipped for 40-50 mph winds and 2-4 inches of rain. Schools would stay open and beach/pool plans would be delayed for a day. A TS in The Idlans with mountains and flood dangers are one thing, in Siuth Florida a TS is no big whoop.

I never said it would be a big threat, but you can't just say that the threat doesn't increase with when a tropical system is in play. That is just ridiculous.

Also, this specific storm is still a threat to us because there are many unknowns with it. Even the NHC has low confidence in it's track prediction.

Jeremy, we have differing opinions of the word "threat".
Almost every summer day there is the threat of severe weather here and no one is worried.
I was born here and gave lived mist of my life here and when I was a kid the prospect of any named system was a thrill. The reality is that a fast moving sheared TS just means little. Nicole, Ernesto are good examples of "who cares". Now when you get a Fay that moves slow and drops 15-25 inches of rain or Irene, it is a different story.
Paula at this time poses little threat at all to South Florida and people don't care about a sheared fast moving TS.
That is the reality as this veteran sees it.

I happen to agree with Jeremy on this one. As long as there is a hurricane meandering out there with "Low confidence" in future track....to me that is a threat. Especially when the forecast is right around 22.0 and 85.0. That is within the errors of the nhc as far as where we live.

[Weatherfreak000]

Looks to be clearing an eye out....shear tendency maps suggest shear is going to favorable over Paula and when you factor in the SST's I can't even imagine.


I can see no reason why this won't become a major at this point, and I am wondering honestly if shear will ever get the chance to impact this system if it really starts to get going, which would only bring it more poleward.


Headaches for the NHC no doubt.

[SouthDadeFish]

The fact that the pressure wasn't falling much while recon was in there is an indicator that it appears to have leveled off for now.