ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[vbhoutex]

What is WISHE?

[GCANE]

What is WISHE?

Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange

Its the mechanism that pulls heat out of the ocean into the TC.

[Vortex]

convective bursting taking place right over the center....pressures should lower and we may see the eye cleat out later tonight...

[SouthDadeFish]

Visible imagery shows an organizing hurricane. GCane, I believe you are right about the hot towers pumping out latent heat. However, any anticyclone she tries to build overhead will be overcome by the trough in roughly 24 hours, in my opinion.

[x-y-no]

I remember wilma was supposed to be a ts by the time she got to florida. hmm

I don't remember that. Nor can I find an advisory reflecting that in the archive:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/WILMA.shtml

[caneseddy]

I remember wilma was supposed to be a ts by the time she got to florida. hmm

I don't remember that. Nor can I find an advisory reflecting that in the archive:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/WILMA.shtml

I don't think Wilma was ever forecast to be a TS..I know it was forecast to be at least a Cat 1 upon landfall in Florida

[alch97]

It doesn't take an expert to see a developing hurricane. The question I have is the chances it has to turn towards Florida (Miami)?

[caneseddy]

Hurricane Warning posted for Pinar del Rio province in extreme Western Cuba

HURRICANE PAULA...WITH 100 MPH WINDS...HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA...

[Evil Jeremy]

Big change in forecast cone. Huge.

[hiflyer]

5pm forecast track has Paula going east up the spine of Cuba...

"NEVERTHELESS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND 48 HOURS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COMPLEX FLOW
PATTERN...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE EFFECT OF LAND."

[caneseddy]

NHC now has Paula making landfall on the western tip of Cuba as a hurricane and cutting across the spine of Cuba, weakening and emerging as a depression off north central Cuba

Also the Keys are within the 3 day error cone

[wxman57]

New track does look more likely, but Paula could move even faster to the east.

[cycloneye]

[brunota2003]

Dang...I got it right on the head last night, thinking she would become a Cat 2 or 3 by this afternoon. Not sure exactly how it falls into RI though.

[Migle]

Wow, that was a huge track change.

[hurricaneCW]

That's a nasty track for Cuba, a lot of heavy rain and winds for them for a few days. Hopefully it's a lot weaker than forecast and I wouldn't be surprised if it is because it's so tiny. Even the slightest increase in shear and dry air has more than enough power to rip Paula apart because of her tiny size.

[BobHarlem]

I can't see it getting much north of Cuba just by looking at the water vapor. Even though it's still in the cone with the 5PM update, wіshcaster or not, I'm glad it seems to be looking better for South Florida. Not so good for Cuba, though.

[hurricaneCW]

The U.S. certainly had their shields up this season, and it's a good thing too because there were a lot of big, bad storms out there. Unfortunately, this meant that other places like Mexico, parts of the Caribbean, and Canada had to deal with those storms. Now it seems like Cuba will deal with Paula, but even that's highly uncertain.

[SouthDadeFish]

I found it interesting that the NHC is giving Paula a 30% chance to still be a hurricane 72 hours. Quite different than being completely sheared apart.

[psyclone]

looks like a reasonable track. should it come to pass florida shouldn't see much of anything since it's such a small storm. the snippet from the key west discussion posted earlier seems to indicate they think all will be well in the conch republic.