ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Oops, the last frame suggests an eye appearing. Based on that, I would go 95 kt. Pressure guess is 973mb.

[Evil Jeremy]

Paula looks like she is headed due north to me, and firing cold cloud tops around her center:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

Can't wait for recon to get back into her.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

It's been a dark and stormy day in the Keys, that's for sure. Near constant rain since after noon, but less than an inch accumulated on Key Largo. Pressure trending downward to 29.93 at Molasses Reef. Really dark but little wind. Outer band/blob been parked over us. No one too concerned about getting a hurricane, but road flooding could be a problem.

Evening recurve,

sent you a reply last night. Everything still up in the air on this one, but watching it close in case I need to come down and close the shutters.

[Evil Jeremy]

Wow! People surely slacked off writing in about Paula. Last night things were pretty active (when Fl might have been threatened), but now that most of the peninsula is out of the woods, not too much is going on.
As I've said before, Fl leads a charmed life most of the time.

Actually, SFL is more in the cone now for this storm than before.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Wow! People surely slacked off writing in about Paula. Last night things were pretty active (when Fl might have been threatened), but now that most of the peninsula is out of the woods, not too much is going on.
As I've said before, Fl leads a charmed life most of the time.

It's not good to give people a false sense of security.

[alienstorm]

I for one believe we will get TS winds in Miami from this. And BTW Richard looks like the real deal coming in next week

[canes101]

why is everyone saying things like "wow its heading north" isnt she forecast to be doing that still at this point?? what am I missing?

[Evil Jeremy]

why is everyone saying things like "wow its heading north" isnt she forecast to be doing that still at this point?? what am I missing?

1: Everyone is welcome to post their observations.
2: A turn to the north is expected tonight and Wednesday.

[Rainband]

I had a bad feeling about this storm last night. Now I see that it was just a feeling. Seems like this storm will spare florida from what I have read. Hopefully it doesn't cause a lot of flooding in cuba.

[Evil Jeremy]

I had a bad feeling about this storm last night. Now I see that it was just a feeling. Seems like this storm will spare florida from what I have read. Hopefully it doesn't cause a lot of flooding in cuba.

Again, there is no all clear at this point. SFL is in the cone now more than it has been before. In fact, the NHC is giving SFL a 10%-20% of feeling TS force winds, compared to the 5%-10% from earlier.

[hurricaneCW]

I wouldn't be surprised if more northward adjustment are made although it can only get so far north because the flow allows it to turn east. I think it'll get to 23N and traverse through the northern Cuban coastline. Florida looks of as of right now. Had Paula been even an average sized hurricane, then south Florida and definitely the keys would have been impacted by even TS winds.

[canes101]

why is everyone saying things like "wow its heading north" isnt she forecast to be doing that still at this point?? what am I missing?

1: Everyone is welcome to post their observations.
2: A turn to the north is expected tonight and Wednesday.

Evil Jeremy I hope you were not taking my post as me being negative or rude in some way.?.?.? Because that was not my intent what so ever. From your responce im afraid you think I was being so.? I am fully aware everyone is welcome to there observations

It was an honest question. Im just wondering why people are seeming surprised its moving north. I honestly was wondering if I was missing something. Cause on the loops of the storm if you pick trop points it shows the next point is due north..

[Evil Jeremy]

why is everyone saying things like "wow its heading north" isnt she forecast to be doing that still at this point?? what am I missing?

1: Everyone is welcome to post their observations.
2: A turn to the north is expected tonight and Wednesday.

Evil Jeremy I hope you were not taking my post as me being negative or rude in some way.?.?.? Because that was not my intent what so ever. From your responce im afraid you think I was being so.? I am fully aware everyone is welcome to there observations

It was an honest question. Im just wondering why people are seeming surprised its moving north. I honestly was wondering if I was missing something. Cause on the loops of the storm if you pick trop points it shows the next point is due north..

http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/7812/88859177.jpg

Don't worry, I don't think your rude or anything, and I hope you don't think I am either. I am just saying that people are saying its heading north because this is still a weather enthusiast forum, and people like to post observations.

Having said that, as of the 8PM intermediate, Paula is moving north at 9 MPH and should miss the next forecast point to the East.

[HURAKAN]

Size comparison, lol

[canes101]

and that would be better news for S FL right?

[KWT]

In these situations usually a storm is more likely to miss to the east then to the north....the main problem with this forecast is because of how narrow Cuba is if it misses to the north or south it'll not weaken as rapidly as is currently forecasted...

[Rainband]

If it misses the next forecast point to the east doesn't that mean its going to turn sooner.

[andrewsurvivor]

Check out NHC forecast tracking map (can be found easily at SFWMD site). It will answer your concerns about forecast direction. For now from what I see she's supposed to still be moving northerly. Will be interesting to see if she begins the turn on schedule.

[CrazyC83]

If it misses the next forecast point to the east doesn't that mean its going to turn sooner.

Correct, and it might just stay in the Caribbean Sea south of Cuba with such a track...

[sunnyday]

I didi't mean to give anyone a false sense of security. I'm merely repeating what I'm reading and hearing--that maybe the Keys will get some of the storm but not much for the rest of the state. Of course, I shouldn't trust the local mets and newspapers, I guess. Headlines say, "Paula heads for Cuba. Florida safe for now..


This is not a forecast of any kind. Just a humble comment....