ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

sunnyday · #1161 Postby **sunnyday** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 6:59 pm

Jeremy,
If Paula should miss the next forecast point to the East as you mentioned, what does that do to the forecast track? Thank you for your answer. 8-)

Sanibel · #1162 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:00 pm

I think we're at top-out intensity. The storm is a strange mix of a bursting developer being choked down by dry air and an unfavorable environment.

The track trend is north so we may end up with a north coast of Cuba skimmer.

Nimbus · #1163 Postby **Nimbus** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:09 pm

Its only a 100 miles difference between Cuba VS a south Florida landfall. Average 3 day forecast error is larger than that. Shouldn't be too bad even if it does come further north as long as it gets sheared back to a cat 1 or weaker.

latitude_20 · #1164 Postby **latitude_20** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:12 pm

Looped radar image from Cancun:

sunnyday · #1165 Postby **sunnyday** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:17 pm

How far north does "South Florida? go? Is it only Miami/Dade county, or is Palm Beach or Martin County included?

#1166 Postby **AdamFirst** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:18 pm

The storm is so small that, THEORETICALLY, the Keys may get hurricane force winds and Miami-Dade would get nothing.

wzrgirl1 · #1167 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:20 pm

Anyone think that south florida will get any warnings from this?

#1168 Postby **tolakram** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:21 pm

Shear is on the increase, you can see the southern edge of the storm eroding rapidly.

FLpanhandle91 · #1169 Postby **FLpanhandle91** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:25 pm

tolakram wrote:Shear is on the increase, you can see the southern edge of the storm eroding rapidly.

As long as it continues to move in the same direction as the shear, it's effects will be minimized.

CourierPR · #1170 Postby **CourierPR** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:27 pm

tolakram wrote:Shear is on the increase, you can see the southern edge of the storm eroding rapidly.

Just looked at the RAMSDIS floater and Paula appears to me to be holding her own. I do not see a rapidly eroding southern edge.

Macrocane · #1171 Postby **Macrocane** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:32 pm

CourierPR wrote: Just looked at the RAMSDIS floater and Paula appears to me to be holding her own. I do not see a rapidly eroding southern edge.

Neither do I, is still holding intensity and RECON may find it a little stronger I think it still has 12-18 hours of good conditions. I may be wrong but that's what my untrained eyes see.

#1172 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:34 pm

It does look like the outflow to the S is more restricted than it was earlier...

x-y-no · #1173 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:35 pm

Outflow is restricted on the south because of southerly shear, but that doesn't seem to be affecting it too much. Actually, the convection is strongest on the south side.

wzrgirl1 · #1174 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:39 pm

Yesterday at this point she was expected to meander through Sunday. Today is a totally different story. Is this because she intensified more then what was predicted and thus influenced by wind flow? Could it change drastically again and be pulled slightly more poleward? I mean it really was a drastic change from yesterday don't you think?

#1175 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:40 pm

x-y-no wrote:Outflow is restricted on the south because of southerly shear, but that doesn't seem to be affecting it too much. Actually, the convection is strongest on the south side.

yes I know, but I'm saying it seems that shear is slightly increasing. Not that Paula is rapidly deteriorating or anything of the nature. I do believe she has reached her relative maximum in terms of intensity.

#1176 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:41 pm

Looking at the ir loop tonight, you can clearly see the upper-level anticyclone anchored over the eastern Cuba with clockwise flow around it. Should Paula stay deep enough to tap into the 250mb steering, I think southern Florida and the keys feel some impacts from this. Question is how much the shortwave trough puts a dent in the upper-anticyclone over the next 48 hours.

#1177 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:42 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:Yesterday at this point she was expected to meander through Sunday. Today is a totally different story. Is this because she intensified more then what was predicted and thus influenced by wind flow? Could it change drastically again and be pulled slightly more poleward? I mean it really was a drastic change from yesterday don't you think?

This option was always possible. Yes they have it going more poleward because it is stronger and will most likely get picked up by the trough. I wouldn't call it a drastic change. The cone seems to be in the same location, just sped up and extended farther out.

jim2cocoa · #1178 Postby **jim2cocoa** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:54 pm

this is the start of the end of paula shear is taking over

#1179 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:24 pm

jim2cocoa wrote:this is the start of the end of paula shear is taking over

I realize that you are new here but such blatant statements should have something concrete to back them up. Also, a disclaimer is required for any personal forecast.

Welcome to the board.

Lynn

kevin · #1180 Postby **kevin** » Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:29 pm

System on the decline.

ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

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