ATL: PAULA - Models

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

A few of the models are showing Paula will reemerge into the NW caribbean after traversing Cuba. Is there any chance of it getting reestablished and being a potential threat again to the Gulf Coast? Could it simply loop around and then shoot back up to the north once the front passes?

[fci]

I think that the screaming westerlies across the Gulf in the wake of the front will last for a while keeping anything from the south from being any kind of issue.

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[caneman]

I believe the Westerlies will only be in place until early next week. Our local forecast calls for Easterlies to return in the Tues. Wed. time frame so if anything is down there by then could spell trouble.

[fci]

Agreed.

However; Paula should be long gone by then anyway.

Now, what may develop down where Paula started is a whole new game and to conject this far out is just wild guessing at this point.

[xironman]

If the GFS moves it south on the monster shear is north, why does it dissipate it?

[KWT]

I'd imagine thats because the center gets decoupled, in other words the higher part of the circulation gets torn away leaving a weakening LLC to trundle in the Caribbean.

[Evil Jeremy]

The GFS ensembles shifted south into the straits, the GFDL shifted south to skimming Cuba's north coast, the HWRF finally shifted north and gave up it's loop scenario, now showing a path through the middle of the straits.

[Shuriken]

From the 1PM:

...PAULA HESITATES...SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD WESTERN CUBA SOON...Movement: Stationary

IMO, if Paula is truly stationary, then that should be an indication that steering from the southwest has collapsed, and that northeast movement should not be expected.

I think we'll see a slow ESE drift develop.

[Hurricane]

Personally, the BAMM model is my favorite model. I think it's the most accurate, and you don't see it making crazy runs like the GFS and NOGAPS.