ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

So, at what point is the "what if" counter-productive??

You also make a good point. I believe this is what the forum disclaimer is for. Perhaps it should be used more.

Anyways, deep convection firing on the south side:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[xironman]

It helps she is moving, even slowly, in the direction of the UL winds.

[Evil Jeremy]

It helps she is moving, even slowly, in the direction of the UL winds.

It helps advance or slow her weakening?

[wxman57]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

I think likely track will be somewhere in between the NHC's line and the GFDL model track.

*My personal opinion and not official*

I agree with that. Paula may just clip NW Cuba and stay north of the island. But wind shear should weaken it to a TS before it passes south of the Keys and a depression prior to the Bahamas.

[xironman]

I would think slow the weakening, since the relative shear would not be as strong.

[x-y-no]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

I think likely track will be somewhere in between the NHC's line and the GFDL model track.

*My personal opinion and not official*

I agree with that. Paula may just clip NW Cuba and stay north of the island. But wind shear should weaken it to a TS before it passes south of the Keys and a depression prior to the Bahamas.

That seems right to me too. I've been thinking for the last two days that the GFDL has the right basic idea but a tad too far north given the strength of the westerlies.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Ntxw]

Looks pretty evident that any part of her going north of Cuba is being/ will be pulled and ripped away from her. The turn seems to have taken place and building is to the south side where it's more favorable. Looks like she spared the Yucatan peninsula with minimal impact.

[Dean4Storms]

Becoming elongated, a sure sign that Paula could become decouple from the UL circulation before much longer. Once that occurs it will weaken rapidly IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html


This is my personal opinion and not anything official. You should get all your official information from official authorities.

[gatorcane]

still moving north but has slowed down some.

[Weatherboy1]

I have no doubt that Paula will be steered/impacted by the shear and westerlies. But where is the southern extent of the strongest westerlies? Aren't they a bit further north ... and if Paula begins to accelerate to the ENE, won't storm-relative shear be less severe? This is NOT going to be a major, damaging storm in my opinion. But couldn't she maintain more of her strength if she is moving with the shear (a la Otto) not against it (a la some of our earlier season storms)?

[HURAKAN]

RECON reporting winds at just 10 knots at 400 mb and still quite far from Paula

[tolakram]

RECON reporting winds at just 10 knots at 400 mb and still quite far from Paula

I think that would be mid level shear and 10 kts sounds about right according to the mid level shear analysis.

[Evil Jeremy]

RECON reporting winds at just 10 knots at 400 mb and still quite far from Paula

http://i56.tinypic.com/20sgak3.jpg

What does this mean shear wise?

[KWT]

Quite obvious tilting occuring with Paula, for now its leading to much in the way of problems but as the core itself gets into that region I'm pretty sure it will start to weaken quickly.

[HURAKAN]

RECON reporting winds at just 10 knots at 400 mb and still quite far from Paula

http://i56.tinypic.com/20sgak3.jpg

What does this mean shear wise?

That the worse shear is still north of Paula

[gatorcane]

Paula looks to be doing just fine. Shear not getting to her just yet.

[KWT]

Yeah the core still looks solid and recon will IMO find a system probably at a similar strength as before but I do think its obvious given the tilting that there is some shear to the north at least at some level.

[AdamFirst]

Looks like the storm is growing size-wise.

[HurricaneRobert]

Wow. Here's something that happened in the same place/time as Paula. It was probably a small hurricane too.