ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Pressure up a tick. SFMR supports 75 kt in the NW quad, but they haven't gone to the NE quad. Adjusting for movement, I would put the intensity at 80 kt.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the storm is growing size-wise.

I think what you see on satellite is a little misleading. The northern cloud-base/moisture is being pulled up along the boundary elongating Paula on that end making it appear larger. This is the effect of the trough. Overall it's still a very, very small storm. Just take a look at radar out of the Yucatan, barely anything in terms of squalls.

[MGC]

I've been with the GFDL for a couple of days now and it looks like it will verify IMO.....Paula still producing a good bit of convection, however the radar out of Cancun shows that the convection surrounding the eye does not appear as well organized as earlier today....doubt it has started to rapidly weaken, guess we will find out when the plane arrives. Movement looks just east of north...the turn has likely started but it will be gradual to the east. I think the storm will skirt the north coast of Cuba and slowly weaken.....MGC


The above opinion is that of MGC and not an official forecast.

[alan1961]

Cuban radar

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[gatorcane]

Paula continues to look very good structurally. She is growing in size also. Let's just see how sharp this turn really is. GFS ensembles don't see this sharp turn, but more of an ENE ejection out of the Caribbean

[CrazyC83]

It's amazing how size matters with intensity. We have had similar-strength storms this year with pressures in the 940s and Paula is at 989.

[fci]

Paula continues to look very good structurally. She is growing in size also. Let's just see how sharp this turn really is. GFS ensembles don't see this sharp turn, but more of an ENE ejection out of the Caribbean

I don't believe that the storm is increasing in size. It's getting sheared more to the right look at that radar; there is nothing to the west of the center

[hurricaneCW]

Yep, she's gradually weakening and recon supports that. Will probably go down to 75 knots for the next advisory, there's nothing out there to support anything more than that right now.

[CrazyC83]

Yep, she's gradually weakening and recon supports that. Will probably go down to 75 knots for the next advisory, there's nothing out there to support anything more than that right now.

That seems reasonable at this point since the closest thing to the RFQ didn't even find the strongest winds. 75 kt is still unusually high for a pressure around 992...

[tolakram]

No reported eyewall, and in my opinion, from the latest sat loops, the storm is de-coupling and the center will be exposed in a few hours.

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[Sanibel]

No reported eyewall, and in my opinion, from the latest sat loops, the storm is de-coupling and the center will be exposed in a few hours.

I'm also seeing SW shear push the CDO off the SW quadrant spiral.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 18, 2010101318, , BEST, 0, 215N, 857W, 75, 990, HU,

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[TheBurn]

[tolakram]

I was incorrect.


243
URNT12 KNHC 131921
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182010
A. 13/19:00:10Z
B. 21 deg 32 min N
085 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 3039 m
D. 69 kt
E. 200 deg 8 nm
F. 308 deg 62 kt
G. 200 deg 8 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 10 C / 3049 m
J. 14 C / 3034 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 0.02 nm
P. AF303 0518A PAULA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 72 KT E QUAD 18:10:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 80 KT NE QUAD 19:03:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 196 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[wxman57]

Convection is starting to get stripped away from the center as shear increases. May have an exposed LLC by tomorrow.

[ObsessedMiami]

CNN just showed a tease of a Paula forecast "coming up later" and the track they showed was right across SFL from Ft. Myers to Ft Lauderdale. Say what?

[fci]

CNN just showed a tease of a Paula forecast "coming up later" and the track they showed was right across SFL from Ft. Myers to Ft Lauderdale. Say what?

Great journalism on their part.
I'd blame it on Rick's List but he's gone!

[Shuriken]

If Paula wants to live post-Cuba, she's doing the right thing now: grow a larger circulation.