Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 111757
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
157 PM AST MON OCT 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE HIGH PRES DOMINATES
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. MODELS
SHOW A STEADY DECLINE IN PRECIP WATER CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
WITHOUT ANY SIG WX FEATURE TO SPEAK OF XPC DAILY ISOLD/SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO CONCENTRATE OVR WRN PR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE MODEST WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW A DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC WITH A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC
THEREAFTER. MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
SAMERICA CORRESPONDINGLY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SHEARLINE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS WITH ACTUAL FRONT GETTING HUNG
UP ALONG 20/21N.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
VI...TNCM...TKPK AND TJPS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHRA AND
TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PR AFT 12/16Z WILL RESULT IN
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDS ACROSS
TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 12/16Z-12/20Z. LLVL WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF SE AT 10 TO 15 KTS FOR NEXT 12 HOURS...BECOMING MORE
ESE AT 10 TO 15 KTS AFT 12/12Z..

&&

.MARINE...SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT ATLC WATERS AND 1-3 FT CARIB
WATERS. WINDS 10-15 KT MOST OF THE PERIOD.

[BZSTORM]

Evenign everyone ok so Paula has my undivided attention, its a holiday in Belize today so in typical fashion no TV News today and minimal radio shows bit like a weekend. So was a bit surprised that it wasn't until the radio presenter read out the 8pm advisory that any announcement about watches etc for Belzie wasn't made before that reading, it still wasn't even on the BZ Met office weather report. TBH IF Paula follows the NHC route we are just looking at some rain indeed , if she stalls off the coast like Mitch did wel be getting really wet, but as October storms for Belize/Honduras now have track record of suddenly dropping south off the tracking route, will not take my eyes of her till she makes landfall. Now whats got me confuses is where is NHC getting this loop track from or is that from the earlier GFS model which had it drifting back down to Niguagua. Either way, its going to an interesting 24hrs - Paula looks to be ramping up quickly and growing too.
Skys have been overcast all day and right now zero breeze, and cool 85F. I remember the day before Mitch set up camp off Belize it was dead calm and quiet too, tonight the bug life isn't in full chorus. Guess I won't be staying up all night but will be up early in the morning. Luis thank you for staying upnight to track the recon flight, I still get confused by the data but the google maps I understand fine, so hoping someone will translate the data for us visual watchers.
I just had phone call that all schools closed tomorrow, and that all staff called into prepare them as shelters, NEMO discussing the possibilty that the storm/hurricane could still make landfall in Belize city, so for ppl to start planning NOW. Will update info as I get it. What a year for the caribbean it feels like 2001 all over again, just praying that no oe gets a cat 5 delivered in their lap.

[cycloneye]

Evenign everyone ok so Paula has my undivided attention, its a holiday in Belize today so in typical fashion no TV News today and minimal radio shows bit like a weekend. So was a bit surprised that it wasn't until the radio presenter read out the 8pm advisory that any announcement about watches etc for Belzie wasn't made before that reading, it still wasn't even on the BZ Met office weather report. TBH IF Paula follows the NHC route we are just looking at some rain indeed , if she stalls off the coast like Mitch did wel be getting really wet, but as October storms for Belize/Honduras now have track record of suddenly dropping south off the tracking route, will not take my eyes of her till she makes landfall. Now whats got me confuses is where is NHC getting this loop track from or is that from the earlier GFS model which had it drifting back down to Niguagua. Either way, its going to an interesting 24hrs - Paula looks to be ramping up quickly and growing too.
Skys have been overcast all day and right now zero breeze, and cool 85F. I remember the day before Mitch set up camp off Belize it was dead calm and quiet too, tonight the bug life isn't in full chorus. Guess I won't be staying up all night but will be up early in the morning. Luis thank you for staying upnight to track the recon flight, I still get confused by the data but the google maps I understand fine, so hoping someone will translate the data for us visual watchers.
I just had phone call that all schools closed tomorrow, and that all staff called into prepare them as shelters, NEMO discussing the possibilty that the storm/hurricane could still make landfall in Belize city, so for ppl to start planning NOW. Will update info as I get it. What a year for the caribbean it feels like 2001 all over again, just praying that no oe gets a cat 5 delivered in their lap.

Stay safe there and keep us informed about the preparations and hopefully no landfall in Belize nor anywhere.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST TUE OCT 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. A CUTOFF LOW
NOW 700 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE TOWARD
GUADELOUPE AND DOMINICA NOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND STALL...ENHANCING
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND
VERY MODEST HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL KEEP EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH
PATCHES OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES 20
NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 5 AM AST RADAR SHOWED SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A FINE PEPPERING OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS BUT ALSO AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 70 MILES
NORTH OF CULEBRA THAT WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS
TO BE FORMING IN A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM A WEAK LOW
NEAR 28 NORTH 55 WEST. THIS SAME MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY EXTENDING WEST TOWARD THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF
TROPICAL STORM PAULA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE FROM THE
CONVECTION IN THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS MAKING IT TO UPPER LEVELS AND
DRIFTING BACK ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
THE NORTH FLOW AROUND A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
THE CURRENT MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR ENTERING THE
SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN THAT IS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THIS AREA...WHICH IS SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES ACROSS IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT...APPEARS TO CONFIRM THE
MODELS` FORECAST THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
LOCAL WATERS...LEAVING PUERTO RICO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...UNDER AIR THAT IS STILL FAIRLY HEAVILY LADEN
WITH MOISTURE AND HENCE PRONE TO GENERATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS AS WELL. AS THE TAIL OF THE DRIER AIR DRIFTS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...THIS ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE AND SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. ACTIVITY OF A SIMILAR NATURE WILL OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE WIND AT LOWER LEVELS SWITCHES TO THE EAST AND BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN. LOWER LEVEL WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT LEANS OVER IN THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF
20 NORTH AND PUERTO RICO...BUT DRIER AIR...PRESUMABLY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A RELATIVELY STRONG
CUT-OFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND OF DOMINICA...BEGINS TO INVADE
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALSO OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THE
ENTIRE PERIOD LOW PRESSURE DOES NOT SEEM TO LEAVE THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE GFS CREATES A HURRICANE JUST SOUTH OF CUBA OUT OF
THE CONVECTION ORIGINALLY OVER PANAMA BY THE END OF THE 10 DAY
PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THAT FORMATION OR THE FINAL TRACK OF
TROPICAL STORM PAULA...FLOW INTO THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
KEEP WINDS AT THE SURFACE IN OUR LOCAL AREA GENERALLY EASTERLY
DURING THE ENTIRE TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12/17Z.
AFT 12/17Z...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
TJSJ IN SHRA/TSRA. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE ESE
AT 10 TO 15 KTS...BECOMING MORE ELY AFT 13/21Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET WILL DIMINISH IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
LIGHT WINDS. SEAS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY LATER NEXT WEEK AS SWELL
FROM A VERY STRONG LOW OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
ARRIVE IN THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 77 / 20 20 20 10
STT 88 78 87 78 / 20 30 30 20

[Gustywind]

[BZSTORM]

Good Morning everyone, well great morning here, nice to wake upto threat removed, as u all know watch discontinued, at 6.39am BZ time its 79F, clear & sunny skies. Feel for Mexico as still big threat for them.

[msbee]

glad all will be OK in Belize

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST TUE OCT 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THEN THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TUTT LOW ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL INDUCE WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AS THE
ATLANTIC HIGH SINKS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS GPS-MET DATA
FROM SAN JUAN AND ISABELLA ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL FLUCTUATING AROUND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
DECENT DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. DUE
TO THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TO BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT SOME MAY DRIFT SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND AFFECT THE SURROUNDING MUNICIPALITIES. THEREFORE THESE
QUICK BURSTS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT URBAN
AND SMALL FLOODING IN ISOLATED AREAS ONLY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND REST OF THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL BUT
SLOW DRYING TREND. HOWEVER A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BRING A PATCH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE THEN
SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. THEREAFTER A
SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. FOR LONG TERM WENT PRETTY MUCH WITH CLIMO
WITH AND CHANCE PASSING EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS...
FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 12/23Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FROM 12/23Z-13/16Z. AFT 13/16Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ANTICIPATED IN AND AROUND TJMZ IN
SHRA/TSRA. LLVL WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF ESE AT 10 TO 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING E AT 10 TO 15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 77 87 / 20 20 10 20
STT 76 87 78 87 / 40 40 20 20

[BZSTORM]

glad all will be OK in Belize

Thanks MsBee, today his turned out to be nice and sunny and temps rising 89F on the south Coast today, looks like the cold weather is moving off. Still keeping a watchful eye on Paula as I don't trust October storms not to swing back.

Hoping as Paula is so compact that even if she sits off the coast of Cozumel for days that they don't get too much damage, they have just been doing a big coral restoration program these last few years, following both coral disease and hurricane damage to the reef system. Hurricane Iris wiped out nearly 50% of Elkhorn coral (forest) in one of the National parks in Belize, Cozumel had similar problems and the program was to transplant small pieces of broken live corals to new sites. property & lives are very important to have minimal damage but sometimes I wonder how many people realize the kind of damage that a hurricane can do to reef systems. Damaged reef has hit on affect to fish populations and when to comes to coastal property protection from storm surge. Mexico really has taken a beating this year so hope they keep safe and damage is minimal.

[Gustywind]

glad all will be OK in Belize

Thanks MsBee, today his turned out to be nice and sunny and temps rising 89F on the south Coast today, looks like the cold weather is moving off. Still keeping a watchful eye on Paula as I don't trust October storms not to swing back.

Hoping as Paula is so compact that even if she sits off the coast of Cozumel for days that they don't get too much damage, they have just been doing a big coral restoration program these last few years, following both coral disease and hurricane damage to the reef system. Hurricane Iris wiped out nearly 50% of Elkhorn coral (forest) in one of the National parks in Belize, Cozumel had similar problems and the program was to transplant small pieces of broken live corals to new sites. property & lives are very important to have minimal damage but sometimes I wonder how many people realize the kind of damage that a hurricane can do to reef systems. Damaged reef has hit on affect to fish populations and when to comes to coastal property protection from storm surge. Mexico really has taken a beating this year so hope they keep safe and damage is minimal.

Thanks for these nice infos.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST WED OCT 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WEAKLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH SINKS
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT DIURNAL EFFECT TO COMBINE AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. WINDS WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THEREFORE THESE SHOWERS
COULD GENERATE MODERATE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THEREAFTER A SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. FOR LONG TERM WENT
PRETTY MUCH WITH CLIMO WITH AND CHANCE PASSING EARLY MORNING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 13/16Z. BETWEEN 13/16Z AND 13/22Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ...AND
TJBQ IN SHRA OR TSRA. VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJPS AND TJSJ ALSO.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS AT THE SURFACE...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED AT COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES ON LATE MONDAY.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
126 PM AST WED OCT 13 2010

PRC021-033-061-127-137-132030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0505.101013T1726Z-101013T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-GUAYNABO PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
126 PM AST WED OCT 13 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GUAYNABO...CATANO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 125 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING AN AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. DUE TO
VERY SATURATED SOILS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS...AS WELL AS THE FLOODING OF CHANNELS AND SMALL STREAMS...CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST 430 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6625 1848 6606 1838 6600 1838 6620

$$

SR

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
149 PM AST WED OCT 13 2010

PRC003-005-099-131-132045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0508.101013T1749Z-101013T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-
149 PM AST WED OCT 13 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...AGUADILLA AND AGUADA

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 148 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND THE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THESE
AREAS. DUE TO VERY SATURATED SOILS...RAPID RIVER RISES...PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS...AS WELL AS THE FLOODING
OF CHANNELS AND SMALL STREAMS...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST 445 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6720 1848 6712 1836 6693 1829 6697

$$

RAM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
144 PM AST WED OCT 13 2010

PRC029-031-132045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0507.101013T1744Z-101013T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
144 PM AST WED OCT 13 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS AND CAROLINA

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 141 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL STREAMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CANOVANAS AND CAROLINA. DUE TO THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND
FLOW...EXPECT ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THIS AREA...AND TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 445 PM AST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1845 6603 1840 6588 1831 6587 1836 6598

$$

SR

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 131846
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST WED OCT 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END FOR THE WEEK...WHILE TUTT LOW
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME THIS WILL
INDUCE WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY PERTURBATION WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELONGATED SURFACE
TROUGH SAGGING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MONA PASSAGE FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS AND MOVE MAINLY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT OCCASIONAL PASSING OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD
FRAGMENTS ACCOMPANYING WEAK PERTURBATIONS INDUCED BY AFOREMENTIONED
TUTT LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. STILL FAIRLY
MOIST LOCAL ENVIRONMENT LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE METRO AREA... INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION
OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...OR FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER
THE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS AS SOIL REMAIN
FAIRLY SATURATED ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 1.50 OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY...
LEADING TO A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS. PASSING EARLY MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS...AND
LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION WILL HOWEVER REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLANDS EACH DAY. SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURE IS IN SIGHT AT THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL 13/23Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FROM 13/23Z-14/16Z. AFT 14/16Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ANTICIPATED IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND
TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. LLVL WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF ESE AT 10 TO
15 KTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...MOSTLY TRANQUIL SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE
LONG TERM...EXPECT SOME NORTHERLY SWELL ACTION TO ARRIVE ACROSS LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS BY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
BE GENERATED BY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 10 20 10 20
STT 76 87 79 88 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST THU OCT 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END FOR THE WEEK...WHILE TUTT LOW
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...WITHOUT AFFECTING ANY LANDMASS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALTHOUGH MODELS AND THE MIMIC FROM CIMSS PRODUCTS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT
AROUND 10 MPH...THEREFORE THESE SHOWERS WILL BE GENERATING
MODERATE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IN SOME
ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

PASSING EARLY MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS...AND LOCAL TERRAIN AND
DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION WILL HOWEVER REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS EACH DAY. SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS
IN SIGHT AT THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 14/16Z.
AFT 14/16Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. VCTS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJPS...AND TJSJ. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WW3 MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A NORTHERLY SWELL TO ARRIVE ACROSS LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS BY MONDAY THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BE
GENERATED BY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 141839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU OCT 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TUTT LOW TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD AND FILL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL SINK
DOWN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SEA/LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ
THROUGH ABOUT 14/22Z.

[Macrocane]

Yesterday was the warmest day of October, so far. Thankfully a new event of cool northerly winds began last night and today the temperatures have been cooler, these are yesterday temperatures:

Temperatures

Code: Select all

San Salvador     min:19.8°C/67.6°F      max:30.8°C/87.4°F
Las Pilas        min:12.9°C/55.2°F      max:17.0°C/62.6°F
San Miguel       min:22.8°C/73.0°F      max:35.5°C/95.9°F
La Union         min:24.7°C/76.5°F      max:35.7°C/96.3°F


[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (8pm to 8pmET)
for Thu Oct 14 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.8C 89F 0.1mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.3C 85F 3.3mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.1C 88F 9.4mm

Point Salines, Grenada 29.0C 84F 18.0mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 32.0C 90F 6.5mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.5C 89F 1.0mm

Hewannora, St Lucia 31.6C 89F trace
Melville Hall, Dominica 31.6C 89F 3.6mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 32.1C 90F 0.2mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.1C 88F 3.2mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.0C 88F 0.9mm
VC Bird, Antigua 29.9C 86F 4.1mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 31.9C 90F
Kingston, Jamaica 32.7C 91F 11.0mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.7C 91F trace
Havana, Cuba 29.3C 85F 28.0mm (PAULA)

Nassau, Bahamas 32.2C 90F 5.0mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 27.0C 81F 0.3mm

-justin-

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST FRI OCT 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
REMAINED OVER WATERS...A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA ISLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WERE REPORTED.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...A GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT PASSING EARLY MORNING COASTAL
SHOWERS...AND LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLANDS EACH DAY. SO FAR...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS IN SIGHT AT THIS TIME BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
15/16Z WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST..TISX...TNCM...AND TKPK. AFT 15/16Z...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. VCTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJPS...AND VCSH ACROSS TJSJ. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OUT OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL LOCAL
PASSAGES ON MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 76 / 20 20 20 10
STT 88 77 87 75 / 20 20 20 10