ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

#1322 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 3:56 pm

It doesn't appear as though those of you in south Florida will even notice Paula passing to the south.

#1323 Postby **MGC** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 3:58 pm

Shear is starting to take its toll....Paula should start to fall apart quickly soon....MGC

#1324 Postby **Vortex** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 3:58 pm

Keep an eye to the south withinin 5 days may be "the real" deal as depicted by models...Not sure if this is part of it ot not....

45NWOrlando · #1325 Postby **45NWOrlando** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 4:00 pm

ObsessedMiami wrote:CNN just showed a tease of a Paula forecast "coming up later" and the track they showed was right across SFL from Ft. Myers to Ft Lauderdale. Say what?

That would be west-northwest to east-southeast.

The BAMD model has a Cape Romano to Lake Worth path.

#1326 Postby **Ntxw** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 4:03 pm

Vortex wrote:Keep an eye to the south withinin 5 days may be "the real" deal as depicted by models...Not sure if this is part of it ot not....

From what I can see, there's a pretty good consensus the trough pattern continues and even strengthens. Well into a fall pattern, best chances for anything looks to be south of Cuba imo. Anything that tries to move north will suffer the same fate has Nicole and Paula. Of course if you can develop a giant like Wilma then they can overcome obstacles but those are one of a kind rarities.

Anyone know what the smallest hurricane in size is? Just wondering.

#1327 Postby **fci** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 4:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:It doesn't appear as though those of you in south Florida will even notice Paula passing to the south.

The only ones noticing Paula passing to the south will be the members of S2K reading this thread and only from reading the thread!

#1328 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 4:38 pm

Avila sure cracked me up here:

A HURRICANE IS CROSSING BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND EASTERN
YUCATAN...BUT WITHOUT MODERN TECHNOLOGY NO ONE WOULD KNOW IT WAS
THERE.

Aquawind · #1329 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 4:39 pm

YAY!! Back south and over more land..a good thing for the US!

FireRat · #1330 Postby **FireRat** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 5:41 pm

And that was our best shot at tropical threat in Florida this year.

At this point I would say the only way to get action in the States would come from a freak November hurricane heading north out of the Caribbean if the current troughing pattern lets up by then.

Cuba is not done yet, the possible future storm many are seeing for the 20th-25th might have them in its sights.

#1331 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 5:51 pm

RTTTTIIIIIPPPPP! The sound of Paula being ripped apart by shear this evening. Center's nearly exposed now. I doubt it is still a hurricane.

Weatherfreak000 · #1332 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:01 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Avila sure cracked me up here:

A HURRICANE IS CROSSING BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND EASTERN
YUCATAN...BUT WITHOUT MODERN TECHNOLOGY NO ONE WOULD KNOW IT WAS
THERE.

This quote really hurts our understanding of climatology in general.

Sanibel · #1333 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:07 pm

Guanahacabibes, Cuba should be having a good near-pass of a hurricane right now.

Overcast slid back over us.

Aquawind · #1334 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:10 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Avila sure cracked me up here:

A HURRICANE IS CROSSING BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND EASTERN
YUCATAN...BUT WITHOUT MODERN TECHNOLOGY NO ONE WOULD KNOW IT WAS
THERE.

This quote really hurts our understanding of climatology in general.

Not at all..without technology we would be clueless...think of the old days.. before a boat in the open sea could even transmit it's information other than morse code or with lanterns.. He is right on..Paula is tiny..

#1335 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:12 pm

Latest

Aquawind · #1336 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:28 pm

Overcast slid back over us.

Why did you add that? Do you think it's going further north than forecast or just stirring the pot? I respect your basic understanding of weather neighbor but, is that really relevant or are you just making a "observation"?

#1337 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:34 pm

Yep, you could see it coming early this afternoon once Paula started getting elongated. She might be a top end TS right now, but at this rate and Cuba in the near distance I would expect her to really weaken fast.

Aquawind · #1338 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:38 pm

Shear! Every human's (make that everything's) best friend from tropical systems! 8-)

andrewsurvivor · #1339 Postby **andrewsurvivor** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:41 pm

Thank you, Aquawind. Here in So Fl it has been overcast most of the day, a little rain but actually a very pleasant day. Geez we see heavy t-storms typically in October, this is a break for us! There's plenty of chances down here to stir up the natives, this is not one of them.

Florida1118 · #1340 Postby **Florida1118** » Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:44 pm

Vortex wrote:Keep an eye to the south withinin 5 days may be "the real" deal as depicted by models...Not sure if this is part of it ot not....

How many times has the "real" deal come up in models? For all we know, it could be one, or it could be a Bonnie or Nicole.

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