WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[phwxenthusiast]

really ominous now.. Northern Luzon needs to watch this.... i really hope that with the administration changes that happened within PAGASA these past few months, they will do a better job at forecast this storm... i heard they will try to produce hourly updates instead of the old 6 hourly updates... and i also hope they get those doppler radars working...

a possible super typhoon making landfall in the mountainous areas of Luzon could potentially be another catastrophe in the making... i hope not, but it's nature...

[phwxenthusiast]

i just want to add...

i just saw the 12z GFS and shifted way south now... landfalling somewhere in the provinces of Isabela/Aurora... somewhere around 960mb, jesus...

[KWT]

No reason at all IMO Cycloneye that this doesn't beat Igor in terms of ACE, esp given this likely will be a player for at least the next 10 days and given the models expectations I suspect 40-50 ACE to be produced before this one eventually gives up the fight!

Either way the models are seeing a pretty impressive set-up for this system and given its already wrapping nicely I see no reason why this won't be a big storm by the time it comes close to Luzon, just hope its not in the same league as the 1998 storms!

[senorpepr]

Still T2.0

157
TCNA21 RJTD 131800
CCAA 13180 47644 MEGI(1013) 17118 11409 14244 220// 90000=



WTPQ20 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 11.7N 140.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 13.0N 138.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 151800UTC 15.1N 135.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 161800UTC 17.2N 131.2E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[ManilaTC]

With this development, it has been dropping to the south and west of the forecast track... Possible Angela/Rosing scenario...

We better watch this, the whole of Luzon is now under the gun.

[cycloneye]

This is the prognostic reasoning from the 1500z warning #3.

WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130915Z SSMIS
91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH
TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT DUE TO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
(STR). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS FROM KNES, RJTD, AND PGTW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN
B. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY AND BEGIN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY. AFTER
TAU 36, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND RE-BUILD WESTWARD
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STAIR-STEP BACK TO THE WEST AND SIGNIFICANTLY
INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS MEGI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LUZON OVER HIGHLY FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK,
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

am i reading this right... 3.5 according to JTWC??

TPPN11 PGTW 131814

A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI)

B. 13/1730Z

C. 11.7N

D. 141.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
CNVCTN WRAPS .90 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING 3.5 DT. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ROSS

[cycloneye]

PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 11.6N 140.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 140.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.0N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.6N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.5N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.5N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.1N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.0N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.1N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 140.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION AND TIGHT FORMATIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IS DEVELOPING AN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO
THE EAST. A 131554Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, THE STR
WILL REORIENT AND ALLOW TS 15W TO BEGIN TRACKING IN A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION (TAU 12 THROUGH 48). DURING THIS PERIOD,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED INTO THE DIFFLUENT
REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS, COUPLED WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE AIR COLUMN,
AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT, WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). AFTER TAU 48, THE STR IS
EXPECTED RE-BUILD TO THE NORTH AND THE SYSTEM WILL RESUME TRACKING
WESTWARD. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT.
ADDITIONALLY, MODELS THAT GENERALLY HANDLE RI (GFDN AND COAMPS) ARE
SHOWING SOME RI SIGNALS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
//
NNNN

[ManilaTC]

This gives me a restless feeling.

TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE STEERING RIDGE. BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY AND BEGIN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY. AFTER TAU 36, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND RE-BUILD WESTWARD ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STAIR-STEP BACK TO THE WEST AND SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST.

What if the ridge holds and the mid-latitude trough does not dig deep enough to even weaken the ridge?

JMA is giving a extended W movement by day 4 and 5...

[cycloneye]

Is a big system that covers many latitudes and longitudes.

[Infdidoll]

Wow! My husband is part of a military detachment doing training down there, right now...and if this thing shifts the direction JTWC has it going, right now, they're going to be in big trouble.

Reading that last update, Clark, this storm seems to have everything going for it. Not liking to hear that.

[Chacor]

That D1.5/24HRS from PGTW is likely a sign of things to come. Already breaking Dvorak constraints?!

[StormingB81]

NOGAPS still has it turning to the north....what does it want to do..lol

[phwxenthusiast]

GFS kinda doing the same thing, based on NCEP...

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 11.8N 140.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 13.2N 138.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 151800UTC 15.1N 135.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 161800UTC 17.2N 131.2E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

And from 18Z advisory:
96HF 171800UTC 17.6N 127.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
120HF 181800UTC 17.6N 122.9E 300NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT =



TXPN23 KNES 132201
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 13/2030Z
C. 11.9N
D. 140.2E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING PRODUCES A DT OF 3.0 WHILE THE MET IS 2.5
AND PT IS 3.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...JANKOT
=

Microwave showing most convection to the east:

[StormingB81]

Either or I will be watching either or...with the thinking it may be a cat 4 just when it gets close to PI thats nothing to be looking away from

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[supercane]

Latest from ITOP:


TROPICAL CYCLONE BRIEF
Storm ID: Name: Tropical Low
Issued at: 2236 UTC 13/10/2010
Data at: 1800 UTC 13 October 2010

TECHNICAL REMARKS


Latitude: 11.8N
Longitude: 140.5E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm (95 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (224 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (3 km/h)

Bearing 1: From Guam
At +0: 270 nm (505 km) west southwest
At +12: 310 nm (580 km) west southwest
At +24: 390 nm (720 km) west
At +36: 490 nm (910 km) west
At +48: 620 nm (1150 km) west
At +60: 760 nm (1410 km) west
At +72: 890 nm (1650 km) west



Maximum 10 Minute Mean Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 995 hPa



FORECAST DATA *** Mean wind is 10 minute mean wind ***
Date/Time : Location : Acc : Mean: Max : Pres :
(UTC) : degrees : nm : kts : kts : hPa : 3
+0 : 13/1800 : 11.8N 140.5E : 050 : 040 : 055 : 995 :
+6 : 14/0000 : 12.0N 140.2E : 065 : 050 : 070 : 990 :
+12 : 14/0600 : 12.4N 139.6E : 080 : 050 : 070 : 980 :
+18 : 14/1200 : 12.7N 139.0E : 095 : 055 : 080 : 970 :
+24 : 14/1800 : 13.1N 138.2E : 110 : 055 : 080 : 970 :
+36 : 15/0600 : 14.0N 136.4E : 140 : 070 : 100 : 960 :
+48 : 15/1800 : 14.9N 134.2E : 170 : 085 : 120 : 950 :
+60 : 16/0600 : 15.6N 131.9E : 220 : 095 : 135 : 940 :
+72 : 16/1800 : 16.1N 129.7E : 270 : 100 : 140 : 935 :
+84 : 17/0600 : 16.4N 127.7E : 270 : 105 : 150 : 930 :
+96 : 17/1800 : 16.3N 126.0E : 270 : 105 : 150 : 920 :
+108 : 18/0600 : 16.1N 124.2E : 270 : 110 : 150 : 920 :
+120 : 18/1800 : : : : : :
+132 : 19/0600 : : : : : :
+144 : 19/1800 : : : : : :
*** 10 minute mean wind - increase by about 10% to get to 1 minute mean wind***

[crownweather]

Slight OT: Is there any radar imagery links from the Philippines?? I looked around the net and could not find any. This is to help add to the storm page I have put together for Megi; link is http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3541

[Chacor]

It's a good thing I've never seen CHIPS anywhere nar respectable. 160 kt in 24h?!

There's no doubt that this is our "big one" this year though.