ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[andrewsurvivor]

That's what makes it all so fascinating!

[AdamFirst]

One of the most unique storms I've ever seen.

It can't be much bigger than Cyclone Tracy, can it?

[TheBurn]

[Cyclone1]

This hurricane is remarkably small.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm surprised none of these Caribbean systems have impacted the U.S. Normally if you get a big storm forming in mid October in the Caribbean, it generally heads NE and most likely slams into Florida. The pattern looks more like mid November than mid October, very odd in a la nina year.

[Cyclone1]

I'm surprised none of these Caribbean systems have impacted the U.S. Normally if you get a big storm forming in mid October in the Caribbean, it generally heads NE and most likely slams into Florida. The pattern looks more like mid November than mid October, very odd in a la nina year.

Yeah, I noticed how Novembery these storms seemed. Nicole, Otto, and Paula all feel like late November cyclones.

[KWT]

Paula looks like its really suffering now, I suspect it'll be a TS some point in the next 6-12hrs based on what I'm seeing, could see it be a TD within 24-36hrs quite easily as well though that probably is a little too quick unless the thing gets decoupled...

[andrewsurvivor]

Interesting season in general. Hopefully we learn something. 30 years watching storms and never saw a storm form so quick then end up so small. Now let's hope everyone in Cuba is ok.

[hurricaneCW]

Paula really just looks like a very large thunderstorm or a strong thunderstorm complex. When she was less than 60 miles from Cozumel, they were reporting only 12-15 mph winds which is crazy for what was a 100 mph hurricane at the time. If Paula was an average hurricane, than parts of the Yucatan and now Cuba would easily be seeing TS sustained winds with western Cuba likely seeing hurricane gusts.

If Paula was the size of Igor, then most of the Yucatan peninsula and half of Cuba would be seeing hurricane force winds. It's always interesting to put storms in perspective and see how they would size up to other storms in that location.

[KWT]

Yeah HCW I wonder just what is happening wind wise inside Paula, the presentation really is degrading, esp when you compare it to this time yesterday, the difference really is quite marked and now it does just look like some thunderstorms firing up in an increasingly high shear zone.

[HURAKAN]

One of the most unique storms I've ever seen.

It can't be much bigger than Cyclone Tracy, can it?

Tropical Storm Marco (2008) had gale force wind that only extended out 19 km [12 miles] from its center of circulation (NHC Tropical Cyclone Report). That beats the old record holder, Tropical Cyclone Tracy which had gale force winds extending 50 km [30 mi] from its eye when it struck Darwin, Australia, on 24 December,1974 (Bureau of Meteorology 1977).

Link - http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E5.html

[plasticup]

I have never understood these claims of "smallest storm." Surely every storm, when it is strengthening, has a moment when only one tiny portion of the system is above TS strength.

[KWT]

True to a degree, the difference between Marco and Tracy is clearly that one was a tight TS that was strengthening, the other was a totally mature powerful hurricane like an even smaller version of the 1935 keys storm, its not really a fair comprasion to make!

[hurricaneCW]

Microcanes are very interesting for me. Storms like TC Tracy are almost like large tornadoes. I never understood how these storms can have such tiny circulations, I mean gale winds of only 30 miles across for a well developed TC is amazing. Several hurricanes have eyes that are 30 miles across or so. So technically you could put Paula, Marco, or Tracy into say Wilma's eye. How amazing is that.

The most interesting aspect is also the intensity. We've seen how these tiny storms have the ability to go from a TS to Cat 2,3 hurricanes in less than a day and than back to a TS less than a day later. Sometimes that could happen all in one day.

[Macrocane]

Yep you could put microcanes like Paula in the eyes of macrocanes like Igor
What I found really amazing is the fact that it had little model support and it was able to become a respactable hurricane.

[brunota2003]

You could fit both Tracy and Marco into the eye of Hurricane Ophelia at the same time.

[GCANE]

Keep an eye to the south withinin 5 days may be "the real" deal as depicted by models...Not sure if this is part of it ot not....

I think your right Vortex.

Anti-cyclone is still there and lots of moisture and unstable air.

There have been documented cases were the outflow from one TC will spark another TC on the order of 5 days or so.

I read a paper recently how '05 Rita was a product from Ophelia's UL "wake".

[Ptarmigan]

Microcanes are very interesting for me. Storms like TC Tracy are almost like large tornadoes. I never understood how these storms can have such tiny circulations, I mean gale winds of only 30 miles across for a well developed TC is amazing. Several hurricanes have eyes that are 30 miles across or so. So technically you could put Paula, Marco, or Tracy into say Wilma's eye. How amazing is that.

The most interesting aspect is also the intensity. We've seen how these tiny storms have the ability to go from a TS to Cat 2,3 hurricanes in less than a day and than back to a TS less than a day later. Sometimes that could happen all in one day.

It is interesting to see those small hurricanes. They are common throughout the world. I seem to notice them more often off the coast of Australia. I think in some basins they are more common due to monsoonal troughs spinning up thunderstorms. Paula, Marco, and Tracy are small and yes they could fit into Isabel, Ike, or Katrina's eye.

[Ptarmigan]

Yep you could put microcanes like Paula in the eyes of macrocanes like Igor
What I found really amazing is the fact that it had little model support and it was able to become a respactable hurricane.

I noticed computer models are that good with small microcanes. They seem to be better with large macrocanes.

[gatorcane]

Don't forget that the ecmwf got this right way in advance. The gfs also did quite well.

Both models never showed a threat to Florida except the the gfs 12 day forecast which is not believable anyway

Both models showed a western Cuba threat and a very sheared small system.