WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[KWT]

I can't believe I missed this....I was so relaxed because of the lack of activity in the WPAC...

Your not the only one, I been seeing on TFC they haven't even mentioned this storm just yet. That's just sad.

I'm pretty sure in 4-5 days this one will be getting the attention of alot of people, and not only in the Phillippines either...

[GCANE]

Eyewall closing up.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

Yeah eyewall looking increasingly solid on recent images, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see an eye develop over the next 6-9hrs and once that happens Magi could well go to town in favourable conditions.

Wow. Looks like on the metro-express into town.

IMHO, ADT should show RI once it starts seeing an eye.

6 to 9 hours sounds about right.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 140230.jpg

[RobWESTPACWX]

I see no reason why this can't become a 5 down the line, conditions look primed IMO and its taking a classic October track as well...reminds me alot of the track Mirinae took last year but probably somewhat stronger...

Yeah, Metro Manila needs to keep very alert and I hope PAGASA don't screw this one up. They'll be issuing hourly updates once it nears so I've heard.

The 00z ECMWF run was very disturbing, especially for Hainan - massive hit from Megi. They recently had worst rains in 50 years over there so the last thing they need is a typhoon...

TH have you decided on where or if you'll be going yet? Flights from HK to the PI should be to expensive right?

[cycloneye]

ECMWF goes very bullish at the South China Sea ,after it crosses the Luzon area.

[KWT]

Yeah Cycloneye the ECM is very impressive indeed...

The 06z GFS by the way crosses Luzon and then starts to take it northwards towards Taiwan so we clearly still have some big disagreements but I think the ECM idea is more likely to come off gven the GFS has already tried to recurve this too early recently.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Yeah Cycloneye the ECM is very impressive indeed...

The 00z GFS by the way crosses Luzon and then starts to take it northwards towards Taiwan so we clearly still have some big disagreements but I think the ECM idea is more likely to come off gven the GFS has already tried to recurve this too early recently.

I see NGPS is moving farther and farther S though along with GFS, at this time Central Luzon and N Luzon are in the guns, after that ya, I agree still not sure, Will the ridge hold in place to the N or will the storm loose its steering flow?

06Z NGPS RUN

[drdavisjr]

Hello everyone, it's been sometime since I've been here. This one certainly has my attention.

[KWT]

Welcome back drdavisjr, I think quite a few of us are watching this storm because it looks like it'll probably the biggie in the WPAC this season in a thus far record breakingly slow season...

[drdavisjr]

It has been quiet around here. We had Conson back in July which was a pretty weak storm. Other than that, we haven't seen anything really here in the Manila area.

Looks like things could change pretty quick, though.

[Chacor]

JMA are low at T3.0 at 12z.

[KWT]

Yeah you just gotta hope this season doesn't pull a 1998 and suddenly explode into life in mid October with multiple strong systems threatening.

[RobWESTPACWX]

It has been quiet around here. We had Conson back in July which was a pretty weak storm. Other than that, we haven't seen anything really here in the Manila area.

Looks like things could change pretty quick, though.

Went out to Corregidor after Conson, was surprised to see some of the ruins out there knocked down and non-such.. I only wonder what this one will do. Hopefully it says N of you and Manilla.

[drdavisjr]

Yeah you just gotta hope this season doesn't pull a 1998 and suddenly explode into life in mid October with multiple strong systems threatening.

1998 was a strong La Nina year, also. Right?

[StormingB81]

Rob what will happend if it loses the steering ridge? and I see that some people are jumping on the turn to the north..I wonder what that would do to the storm after going through PI

[KWT]

Yeah you just gotta hope this season doesn't pull a 1998 and suddenly explode into life in mid October with multiple strong systems threatening.

1998 was a strong La Nina year, also. Right?

Yeah it was and it was also exceptionally slow upto October like this season has been, though this season is the slowest ever recorded so far in terms of accumulated cyclone energy which is the best measure for how active a season is.

[drdavisjr]

Went out to Corregidor after Conson, was surprised to see some of the ruins out there knocked down and non-such.. I only wonder what this one will do. Hopefully it says N of you and Manilla.

I love Corregidor, very nice day trip.

We just moved north of Manila, so with a system like this, I supposed a few miles can make a big difference.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Storming, , it would probaly move slowly N, depends on if there is an upper level trough to the N at the the time, and how much the ridge would weaken. So taking all that in to account it could move N to Taiwan or SE china.

I think Okinawa is out the picture at this point as far as tropical, long range you may have a recurving sub-tropical.

All hypothetical at this point though... if the ridge stays in place then it be off to Hainan.

[Chacor]

Up to 45 kt from JMA.

WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 12.9N 138.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 14.7N 135.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 161200UTC 16.5N 131.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 171200UTC 17.4N 127.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[ricmood]

What is the possibility of Manila direct hit?

[HURAKAN]

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