Global model runs discussion

[DanKellFla]

Are y'all talking about the GFS 300 hour forcast?

Yep...the fantasyland 300 hrs..this is the fantasyland thread you know

And in Off-topic, there is an offshoot thread about anti-psychotic drugs.

[caneseddy]

One thing that is in agreement by some models models (GFS, NOGAPS, and Canadian) that there lis a strong possibility a stormw will be forming in the SW Caribbean late this weekend/early next week with the GFS being the most bullish with the future "King Richard"

Other than the 18z run and 00z runs where regicide was committed on King Richard the GFS has been very consistent on a strong TS/hurricane coming very close or over South Florida by next weekend

One thing the GFS has been consistent on with this storm is the narrow timeframe it has had it being near Florida (10/23-10/25), which is remarkable because usually models in the long range extend out and out and out the landfall (if any)

We will see if Richard will be a king or not

[LarryWx]

TC Richard: DOB 10/18/10 in SW Caribbean per 12Z gfs

DOD and cause of death???

[HURAKAN]

GFS 120 hrs

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS suggests a threat to S FL.

[cycloneye]

Look how intense is at 192 hours.

[srainhoutx]

12Z CMC has it as well.

[SouthDadeFish]

Scary part about the GFS is that it drops the high levels of wind shear after about a week, then moves an anticyclone in tandem with Richard through landfall in S FL and the Bahamas. That wouldn't be fun. Then again how often do 200+ hour out model runs verify? According to the latest run Richard would be quite slowpoke, dumping quite a bit of rain over S FL. The non fantasy-part of this run is that development starts around 96 hours, which within a reasonable range for cyclone genesis.

[cycloneye]

In fact, throughout the course of today there has been a buildup of convection just N of Panama as the trade winds converge. Some pretty intense convection is firing, although it is very unorganized. We might be getting close to the point where potential Richard could have its own thread in talking tropics?

There is a thread for the area of interest that the models despict.

Disturbed area north of Panama

[SouthDadeFish]

In fact, throughout the course of today there has been a buildup of convection just N of Panama as the trade winds converge. Some pretty intense convection is firing, although it is very unorganized. We might be getting close to the point where potential Richard could have its own thread in talking tropics?

There is a thread for the area of interest that the models despict.

Disturbed area north of Panama

Oops sorry

[wzrgirl1]

Then again how often do 200+ hour out model runs verify?



Curious as to the answer to that question.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Then again how often do 200+ hour out model runs verify?

NEVER. FANTASY LAND.

Curious as to the answer to that question.

[Macrocane]

Then again how often do 200+ hour out model runs verify?
Curious as to the answer to that question.

Yes they sometimes verify, some examples: Danielle, Earl, Igor, Karl. Obviously we need consistency and the GFS has been consistent.

[HURRICANELONNY]

So your saying those models verified in forming or in track. I'm saying. That far out (200+) will not verify in track. When most reliable models show a tropical disturbance forming. Then I believe it will form. Another words "on the band wagon". As for track. I've never seen a model get that right. That far out.

[x-y-no]

GFS flip-flopping on track ... 0Z takes "Richard" into the Yucatan, 6Z takes a much stronger "Richard" across Jamaica, Cuba and the central Bahamas.

[Macrocane]

So your saying those models verified in forming or in track. I'm saying. That far out (200+) will not verify in track. When most reliable models show a tropical disturbance forming. Then I believe it will form. Another words "on the band wagon". As for track. I've never seen a model get that right. That far out.

I though you were toalking about cyclogenesis that has verified pretty well this season, the track is another story it's still too far our to verify well as you said.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS spins up quite a strong system SW of Jamaica, then weakens it rather suddenly before taking it north across Cuba to a SFL hit on day 10.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 240 hour graphic of the 12z GFS 10/15/10 that doesn't change because is with imageshack. Lets see if this verifies.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS spins up quite a strong system SW of Jamaica, then weakens it rather suddenly before taking it north across Cuba to a SFL hit on day 10.

It's quite strong when it hits S. FL in this run

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS spins up quite a strong system SW of Jamaica, then weakens it rather suddenly before taking it north across Cuba to a SFL hit on day 10.

It's quite strong when it hits S. FL in this run

Everything is relative - it's a lot stronger at hours 180 and 192. Weakens rather abruptly at hour 204.