ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

190730 2256N 08310W 6970 03129 0013 +108 +027 338012 015 /// /// 03
190800 2256N 08308W 6965 03134 0017 +105 +030 311004 005 /// /// 03

1001 mb

[cycloneye]

[supercane]

Latest VDM shows Paula to be pathetic. I'm surprised Cuba let the recon aircraft fly over Cuban airspace to confirm landfall. For the naysayers, yes, the strongest quadrant was not fully sampled.
000
URNT12 KNHC 141929
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182010
A. 14/19:08:10Z
B. 22 deg 56 min N
083 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 3095 m
D. 39 kt
E. 276 deg 24 nm
F. 341 deg 30 kt
G. 276 deg 25 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 11 C / 3047 m
K. 3 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0718A PAULA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 30 KT W QUAD 19:01:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 19:25:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MODERATE TURBULENCE OUTBOUND NE
;

[northjaxpro]

Paula weakening rapidly now. Barely a tropical storm based on the latest vortex message from Recon. I look for the final advisory to come within the next 12-24 hours from NHC.

[HURAKAN]

La Palma, Pinar del Río, reporting sustained winds of 43 mph

[Shuriken]

Paula won't dissipate until her convection is stripped -- and a southward-moving closed low in the northwestern Caribbean is a dangerous thing.

As long as she stays north of Cuba, no chance really. If she makes it into the Caribbean and stays there, she can but even then her odds aren't very good from what the pattern says. We saw it with her in the western Caribbean and strengthen, then moved north and got blasted. Doesn't look to change as of now.

I meant what's dangerous is that she could strengthen while continuing to move south or southwest. eventually into CA, a la Mitch, or head east, a la Lenny, or stew for several days before hitting the Greater Antilles.

[wxman57]

Looking more like an elongated trof on the recon reports plot. Frontal boundary may have reached it from the west, too. Buoy in NW Caribbean has NNW winds 20 kts, apparently behind the front.

[Stormcenter]

She may be weakening but her ability to sustain significant convection under very unfavorable conditions is very impressive to say the least. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[jinftl]

Granted it is across a very small area, but this storm has some kick to it....

LA PALMA NEAR PUERTO
ESPERANZA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 68 MPH...110 KM/HR...AND BAHIA
HONDA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR.

[abajan]

Is the ACE over 150 now thanks to Paula?

Nope. Right now the ACE stands at 142.3825 (according to the ACE thread in Talkin’ Tropics).

[somethingfunny]

Is the ACE over 150 now thanks to Paula?

Nope. Right now the ACE stands at 142.3825 (according to the ACE thread in Talkin’ Tropics).

We may get another point or so in the post-season analysis if it turns out that Paula was a tropical cyclone for some time before the first advisory was issued.

[Sanibel]

Minor convection puff over the center because the south quadrant is back over water south of Cuba.

[AJC3]

Still a suprisingly decent presentation on the radar from Havana (Casablanca)



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[KWT]

Yean its still around 45kts IMO, I don't think it'll rapidly weaken from now on but steadily degrade given the combo of land and shear....its holding a decent convective look if nothing else right now.

[wxman57]

00Z models initialized at 45 kts, but recon suggests winds are lower, maybe 35-40 kts. In addition, radar suggests the mid-level center has been stripped away from the LLC, as the radar rotation is clearly closer to 81W than 82W. Shear is taking its toll.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Recurve]

Another good slug of rain from the northernmost convection coming through the Upper Keys now, moderate rain throughout the straits. We dodged another one and our rainfall totals are coming back near normal.

[CrazyC83]

Recon would not have sampled the strongest winds as the RFQ is on land. I would add 5 kt to any Recon estimate.

[supercane]

Cuba discontinued all warnings with latest advisory.
000
WTNT23 KNHC 150233
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
0300 UTC FRI OCT 15 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 81.4W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

[DanKellFla]

She is now Ex-Paula:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 150832
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA...