BOB - Depression (97B)

[HURAKAN]

BOB 03/2010/07 Dated: 14.10.2010

Time of issue: 2000 hours IST

Sub: Depression over Bay of Bengal

The depression over eastcentral and adjoining northwest and westcentral Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 14th October 2010 over the westcentral, adjoining northwest and eastcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 18.00N and longitude 88.00E, about 500 km east-northeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 350 km southeast of Gopalpur (Orissa) and 400 km south-southeast of Digha (West Bengal).

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further into a deep depression and move northwestward and cross Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip by 15th October 2010 evening.

Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with heavy to very falls at a few places would occur over coastal Orissa and isolated heavy to very falls over interior Orissa, coastal areas of West Bengal and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours.

Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph would occur along and off north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal coasts during next 48 hours.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts during this period. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off these coasts.

The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts are being informed accordingly.



Next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of 15th October 2010.

[supercane]

JTWC also interested in this. The updated significant tropical weather advisory:
ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/141800Z-151800ZOCT2010//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.6N
90.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST OF
VISAKHPATNAM, INDIA, AND HAS MOVED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THIS IS EVIDENT FROM A 141458Z METOP-A MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS, DERIVED FROM SHIP AND BUOY
REPORTS, ARE ALONG THE PERIMETER OF THE LLCC - CHARACTERISTIC OF A
CLASSIC MONSOON DEPRESSION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE
HIMALAYAS IN A ZONE OF MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(30-35 KNOTS). THIS HAS BEEN THE MAIN FACTOR INHIBITNG FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

[Chacor]

Euro was showing a decent hit into NE India.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

14/2030 UTC 18.0N 86.6E T2.0/2.0 97B -- Bay of Bengal

30 knots

[KWT]

Alot of convection with this system and thus alot of rain regardless of whether it ends up being offically upgraded or not.

[supercane]

BOB 03/2010/09 Dated: 15.10.2010

Time of issue: 0830 hours IST

Sub: Depression over westcentral, adjoining northwest & eastcentral Bay of Bengal.

The depression over westcentral, adjoining northwest & eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 15th October 2010 near latitude 18.50N and longitude 87.50E, about 450 km east-northeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 300 km east-southeast of Gopalpur (Orissa) and 350 km south of Digha (West Bengal).
The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further into a deep depression and move northwestward and cross Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip by 15th October 2010 evening/night.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over coastal Orissa and isolated heavy to very heavy falls over interior Orissa, coastal areas of West Bengal and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 36 hours.
Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph would occur along and off north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal coasts during next 36 hours.
Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts during this period. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off these coasts.
The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts are being informed accordingly.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of 15th October 2010.

[HURAKAN]

Inland