2010 ACE: Atlantic=159.8625 / EPAC=48.44 / WPAC=118.6700

[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE Update at 0300z

Paula

Code: Select all

18L.Paula
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 11 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
2 11 October 11 pm EDT 60 0.3600
3 12 October 5 am EDT 65 0.4225
4 12 October 10 am CDT 65 0.4225
5 12 October 12:45 pm CDT 85 Special
6 12 October 4 pm CDT 85 0.7225
7 12 October 10 pm CDT 85 0.7225
8 13 October 4 am CDT 85 0.7225
9 13 October 10 am CDT 85 0.7225
10 13 October 4 pm CDT 75 0.5625
11 13 October 10 pm CDT 70 0.4900
Total       5.3975


Season Total

Code: Select all

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.9550
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 5.3975
Total  141.35


Who has the WPAC update as TS Megi is racking up the units there?

[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE Update at 0900z

Paula

Code: Select all

18L.Paula
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 11 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
2 11 October 11 pm EDT 60 0.3600
3 12 October 5 am EDT 65 0.4225
4 12 October 10 am CDT 65 0.4225
5 12 October 12:45 pm CDT 85 Special
6 12 October 4 pm CDT 85 0.7225
7 12 October 10 pm CDT 85 0.7225
8 13 October 4 am CDT 85 0.7225
9 13 October 10 am CDT 85 0.7225
10 13 October 4 pm CDT 75 0.5625
11 13 October 10 pm CDT 70 0.4900
12 14 October 4 am CDT 65 0.4225
Total       5.82


Season Total

Code: Select all

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.9550
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 5.8200
Total  141.7725


[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE Update at 1500z

Paula

Code: Select all

18L.Paula
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 11 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
2 11 October 11 pm EDT 60 0.3600
3 12 October 5 am EDT 65 0.4225
4 12 October 10 am CDT 65 0.4225
5 12 October 12:45 pm CDT 85 Special
6 12 October 4 pm CDT 85 0.7225
7 12 October 10 pm CDT 85 0.7225
8 13 October 4 am CDT 85 0.7225
9 13 October 10 am CDT 85 0.7225
10 13 October 4 pm CDT 75 0.5625
11 13 October 10 pm CDT 70 0.4900
12 14 October 4 am CDT 65 0.4225
13 14 October 10 am CDT 60 0.3600
Total       6.18


Season Total

Code: Select all

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.9550
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 6.1800
Total  142.1325


Anyone wants to update the WPAC as TS Megi continues to rack up the numbers?

[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE Update at 2100z

I am updating the Atlantic,but who will update the WPAC?

Paula

Code: Select all

18L.Paula
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 11 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
2 11 October 11 pm EDT 60 0.3600
3 12 October 5 am EDT 65 0.4225
4 12 October 10 am CDT 65 0.4225
5 12 October 12:45 pm CDT 85 Special
6 12 October 4 pm CDT 85 0.7225
7 12 October 10 pm CDT 85 0.7225
8 13 October 4 am CDT 85 0.7225
9 13 October 10 am CDT 85 0.7225
10 13 October 4 pm CDT 75 0.5625
11 13 October 10 pm CDT 70 0.4900
12 14 October 4 am CDT 65 0.4225
13 14 October 10 am CDT 60 0.3600
14 14 October 4 pm CDT 50 0.2500
Total       6.43


Season Total

Code: Select all

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.9550
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 6.4300
Total  142.3825


[supercane]

West Pac update as of 00Z 15 Oct 2010 for Ty Megi.
From Ryan Maue's ACE site:

01W (30 ACE = 0.0)
Omais (50 ACE = 2.0075)
Conson (75 ACE = 8.3225)
Chanthu (75 ACE = 3.5775)
Dianmu (55 ACE = 2.4225)
Mindulle (60 ACE = 1.7)
Lionrock (55 ACE = 4.2075)
Kompasu (100 ACE = 11.5325)
Namtheun (40 ACE = 0.6875)
Malou (45 ACE = 2.4725)
Meranti (65 ACE = 2.2825)
Fanapi (105 ACE = 13.03)
Malakas (90 ACE = 7.3025)
14W (30 ACE = 0.0)

Total ACE=59.5450

From JTWC JMV file from Megi 03Z advisory with best track at end:

Code: Select all

1510101018   125N1471E   15   0
1510101100   126N1464E   15   0
1510101106   127N1457E   15   0
1510101112   127N1450E   15   0
1510101118   126N1443E   20   0
1510101200   124N1435E   15   0
1510101206   122N1428E   20   0
1510101212   121N1421E   20   0
1510101218   120N1417E   20   0
1510101300   119N1414E   30   0
1510101306   118N1411E   35   0.1225
1510101312   118N1408E   45   0.2025
1510101318   119N1404E   50   0.2500
1510101400   122N1399E   55   0.3025
1510101406   127N1392E   60   0.3600
1510101412   131N1385E   60   0.3600
1510101418   136N1378E   80   0.6400
1510101500   142N1372E   90   0.8100
Megi total thus far         3.0475


WPac total ACE=62.5925 kt^2

[cycloneye]

Atlantic ACE Update at 0900z

Paula

Code: Select all

18L.Paula
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 11 October 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
2 11 October 11 pm EDT 60 0.3600
3 12 October 5 am EDT 65 0.4225
4 12 October 10 am CDT 65 0.4225
5 12 October 12:45 pm CDT 85 Special
6 12 October 4 pm CDT 85 0.7225
7 12 October 10 pm CDT 85 0.7225
8 13 October 4 am CDT 85 0.7225
9 13 October 10 am CDT 85 0.7225
10 13 October 4 pm CDT 75 0.5625
11 13 October 10 pm CDT 70 0.4900
12 14 October 4 am CDT 65 0.4225
13 14 October 10 am CDT 60 0.3600
14 14 October 4 pm CDT 50 0.2500
15 14 October 10 pm CDT 40 0.1600
16 15 October 4 am CDT 30 0
Total       6.59


Season Total

Code: Select all

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.9550
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 6.5900
Total  142.5425


Only seven and a half ace units are left to reach hyperactive status.Lets see if the next storm that forms reach the 150 line.

[wxman57]

Ryan Maue at FL State has the Atlantic ACE a bit higher at 149.035:

2010 Tropical Cyclone Activity
Updated Oct 15 , 2010

BASIN CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
Northern Hemisphere 285.428
Western Pacific 64.4875
North Atlantic 149.035
Eastern Pacific 50.5325
North Indian 21.3725
Southern Hemisphere 196 [2009-2010]

[dwsqos2]

Ryan Maue's site uses the data from the atcf directory on the nhc ftp site. Granted this will probably better reflect final best track intensities than say the operational estimates, but it is what it is.

And, for the two seconds that Otto was a subtropical storm, Maue's site counts its contributions. Granted that didn't make a huge difference, but the calculation standard of course has been to exclude periods during which storms were subtropical cyclones.

[cycloneye]

If Ryan Maue is right, the Atlantic is less than one full unit away from Hyperactive. But I will wait to see which is right between wikipedia and Ryan, to then edit the numbers at title. wxman57, do you have the link to Ryan's site?

Here is what Wiki has.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_Cyclone_Energy

[wxman57]

Ryan Maue's Tropical Page with ACE for the various basins:

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

Dr. Maue states that:
"ACE values do NOT include Subtropical Storms or post-Extratropical transition stages."

[dwsqos2]

I can read that, but there was an October 6 update in which he noted:

"October 6: I am counting Otto in with the seasonal ACE. It is up for debate whether to count subtropical storm ACE, but Otto is in the tropics, it is named, it is mixing up the water, and it is generating plenty of wind and convection. Nonetheless, the subtropical contribution will be small and not historically important (I think). "

Also, Otto's contribution is listed on the bottom of the page as 6.6125, which seems really odd considering I quickly checked the value using the best track file, and I kept getting around 5.8 even including the subtropical storm stage. I know how to caluculate ACE, but I rushed. Does, anyone else want to check this?

I checked another storm, Matthew, and my value matched the listed value of 1.3.

Link for the unaware:

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

[wxman57]

Could be Dr. Maue is in error. When comparing his individual storm ACE values, only Gaston's and Nicole's match the ACE values in this thread. For all other storms but Matthew, Dr. Maue's numbers are higher.

North Atlantic
Alex (85 ACE = 7.3725)
TD02 (30 ACE = 0.0)
Bonnie (35 ACE = 0.49)
Colin (50 ACE = 2.6375)
TD5 (30 ACE = 0.0)
Danielle (115 ACE = 21.805)
Earl (120 ACE = 27.9525)
Fiona (55 ACE = 3.2475)
Gaston (35 ACE = 0.3675)
Hermine (55 ACE = 1.3725)
Igor (135 ACE = 42.7975)
Julia (115 ACE = 14.47)
Karl (105 ACE = 6.0375)
Lisa (70 ACE = 4.2)
Matthew (50 ACE = 1.3)
Nicole (35 ACE = 0.1225)
Otto (75 ACE = 6.6125)
Paula (85 ACE = 4.8025*)

[cycloneye]

After I read that, I will stick with 142.5425 from wiki, instead of 149.035 as subtropical or extratropical storms dont count and this guy has counted them for ACE units.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: After I read that, I will stick with 142.5425 from wiki, instead of 149.035 as subtropical or extratropical storms don't count and this guy has counted them for ACE units.

Most likely, the actual ACE value lies somewhere in between 142.5425 and 149.035, as Dr. Maue was using the ATCF file vs. operational intensity values.

[supercane]

West Pac update as of 00Z 16 Oct 2010 for Ty Megi.
From Ryan Maue's ACE site:

01W (30 ACE = 0.0)
Omais (50 ACE = 2.0075)
Conson (75 ACE = 8.3225)
Chanthu (75 ACE = 3.5775)
Dianmu (55 ACE = 2.4225)
Mindulle (60 ACE = 1.7)
Lionrock (55 ACE = 4.2075)
Kompasu (100 ACE = 11.5325)
Namtheun (40 ACE = 0.6875)
Malou (45 ACE = 2.4725)
Meranti (65 ACE = 2.2825)
Fanapi (105 ACE = 13.03)
Malakas (90 ACE = 7.3025)
14W (30 ACE = 0.0)

Total ACE=59.5450

From JTWC JMV file from Megi 03Z advisory with best track at end:

Code: Select all

1510101018   125N1471E   15   0
1510101100   126N1464E   15   0
1510101106   127N1457E   15   0
1510101112   127N1450E   15   0
1510101118   126N1443E   20   0
1510101200   124N1435E   15   0
1510101206   122N1428E   20   0
1510101212   121N1421E   20   0
1510101218   120N1417E   20   0
1510101300   119N1414E   30   0
1510101306   118N1411E   35   0.1225
1510101312   118N1408E   45   0.2025
1510101318   119N1404E   50   0.2500
1510101400   122N1399E   55   0.3025
1510101406   127N1392E   60   0.3600
1510101412   131N1385E   60   0.3600
1510101418   136N1378E   80   0.6400
1510101500   142N1372E   90   0.8100
1510101506   149N1365E   90   0.8100
1510101512   158N1355E   90   0.8100
1510101518   167N1343E   95   0.9025
1510101600   174N1329E   90   0.8100
Megi total so far         6.3800

WPac total ACE=65.9250 kt^2

[cycloneye]

The Tropical Cyclone report of Colin stripes some ACE units that it had as it was a wave for two days instead of a Tropical Storm. In other words,the Atlantic has to work harder now to reach the hyperactive 150 as it drops from 142.5425 to 141.9525.Read Colin's Tropical Cyclone Report here

New Best Track for Colin

Code: Select all

Best Track
[edit] 04L.Colin
Tropical Cyclone Report
Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
2 Aug 1200 UTC 30 0.0000
2 Aug 1800 UTC 30 0.0000
3 Aug 0000 UTC 30 0.0000
3 Aug 0600 UTC 35 0.1225
3 Aug 1200 UTC 35 0.1225
From 1800 UTC on August 3 to 1200 UTC on August 5,
the system was a wave, not a tropical cyclone.
5 Aug 1200 UTC 40 0.1600
5 Aug 1800 UTC 45 0.2025
6 Aug 0000 UTC 50 0.2500
6 Aug 0600 UTC 40 0.1600
6 Aug 1200 UTC 40 0.1600
6 Aug 1800 UTC 40 0.1600
7 Aug 0000 UTC 40 0.1600
7 Aug 0600 UTC 35 0.1225
7 Aug 1200 UTC 35 0.1225
7 Aug 1800 UTC 35 0.1225
8 Aug 0000 UTC 30 0
8 Aug 0600 UTC 30 0
8 Aug 1200 UTC -- dissipated
Total    1.865


Season Total

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Best track 1.8650
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 27.7750
08L (Fiona) Operational 2.9400
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.3675
10L (Hermine) Operational 1.2725
11L (Igor) Operational 42.445
12L (Julia) Operational 14.1825
13L (Karl) Operational 5.8000
14L (Lisa) Operational 3.6175
15L (Matthew) Operational 1.3750
16L (Nicole) Operational 0.1225
17L (Otto) Operational 4.6550
18L (Paula) Operational 6.5900
Total  141.9525


[hurricaneCW]

The report on Paula could indicate that it was a storm before it was upgraded so the ACE units will probably even themselves out after Colin's report.

[supercane]

West Pac update as of 00Z 17 Oct 2010 for Ty Megi.
From Ryan Maue's ACE site:

01W (30 ACE = 0.0)
Omais (50 ACE = 2.0075)
Conson (75 ACE = 8.3225)
Chanthu (75 ACE = 3.5775)
Dianmu (55 ACE = 2.4225)
Mindulle (60 ACE = 1.7)
Lionrock (55 ACE = 4.2075)
Kompasu (100 ACE = 11.5325)
Namtheun (40 ACE = 0.6875)
Malou (45 ACE = 2.4725)
Meranti (65 ACE = 2.2825)
Fanapi (105 ACE = 13.03)
Malakas (90 ACE = 7.3025)
14W (30 ACE = 0.0)

Total ACE before Megi=59.5450

From JTWC JMV file from Megi 03Z advisory with best track at end:

Code: Select all

1510101018   125N1471E   15   0
1510101100   126N1464E   15   0
1510101106   127N1457E   15   0
1510101112   127N1450E   15   0
1510101118   126N1443E   20   0
1510101200   124N1435E   15   0
1510101206   122N1428E   20   0
1510101212   121N1421E   20   0
1510101218   120N1417E   20   0
1510101300   119N1414E   30   0
1510101306   118N1411E   35   0.1225
1510101312   118N1408E   45   0.2025
1510101318   119N1404E   50   0.2500
1510101400   122N1399E   55   0.3025
1510101406   127N1392E   60   0.3600
1510101412   131N1385E   60   0.3600
1510101418   136N1378E   80   0.6400
1510101500   142N1372E   90   0.8100
1510101506   149N1365E   90   0.8100
1510101512   158N1355E   90   0.8100
1510101518   167N1343E   95   0.9025
1510101600   174N1329E   90   0.8100
1510101606   181N1315E   100   1.0000
1510101612   184N1302E   105   1.1025
1510101618   187N1288E   125   1.5625
1510101700   187N1275E   140   1.9600
Megi total ACE thus far         12.0050


WPac total ACE=71.5500 kt^2

[KWT]

Megi is going to really raise the ACE in the next 24hrs, will probably make 8-10 units in that short amount of time.

Going to be tight globally whether we beat 2007 and not be the lowest in 30 odd years in terms of ACE, but Megi is certainly help to rake up ACE in that basin and models suggest its got at least another 5-7 days where its going to rake up some pretty decent figures...it'll probably push the WPAC above 100 units.

[Ptarmigan]

Megi is going to really raise the ACE in the next 24hrs, will probably make 8-10 units in that short amount of time.

Going to be tight globally whether we beat 2007 and not be the lowest in 30 odd years in terms of ACE, but Megi is certainly help to rake up ACE in that basin and models suggest its got at least another 5-7 days where its going to rake up some pretty decent figures...it'll probably push the WPAC above 100 units.

2007 is rather interesting that the ACE was low. The number of storms was either average or above. Also, 2007 was entering into La Nina that time. 1977 was very quiet for all the northern hemisphere basin and we were coming off of a weak El Nino and went back to El Nino in 1977-78 winter.