Disturbed area north of Panama - (Is invest 99L)

[gatorcane]

I have a feeling this one is going to be a monster. Hopefully those strong upper-level winds are still around in the northern caribeean and southern gom.

[gatorcane]

Nice Upper-High over the NW Carib/South Florida at 254 hours. The westerlies break down over the SE GOM and Southern FL/Bahamas by 200 hours.

[abajan]

Yes that’s where I thought it was: north of Panama. Yet just minutes ago the meteorologist on Local 10 News out of Miami showed a graphic depicting it north of Honduras and stating that’s where it is.

[CourierPR]

Yes that’s where I thought it was: north of Panama. Yet just minutes ago the meteorologist on Local 10 News out of Miami showed a graphic depicting it north of Honduras and stating that’s where it is.

That was Trent Aric, who later corrected himself in the broadcast. He also noted that several of the reliable computer models are showing development of the system.

[SFLcane]

00z GFS drives this into central america again.

[cycloneye]

Different from the 00z,the 06z GFS moves it northward towards Eastern Cuba.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[crownweather]

Different from the 00z,the 06z GFS moves it northward towards Eastern Cuba.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Very similar both in intensity & track to the 00z NOGAPS model.

[cycloneye]

NHC drops it.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA LOCATED ON THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL
CUBA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURRICANELONNY]

It'll be back. Surprised they took it down though.

[Blown Away]

IMO, the CONUS season is done. In SFL it feels like November and the pattern looks like November with the fronts and westerlies. I'm thinking 2 more names, 1 hurricane and 1 TS. I think any SW Caribbean system will be any issue for the Caribbean east of 80W.

[CourierPR]

I think the important thing is that the models seem to agree on development of a TC next week. We shall see what unfolds. I suspect that the season has at least one more storm on the horizon.

[cycloneye]

Below is this morning's discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about the SW Caribbean area.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 4 - 5 days from now. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to

[wxman57]

I think something will develop in the SW Caribbean around next Tuesday-Wednesday. 00Z models take it NW to north of Honduras on Friday then west into the southern Yucatan. 06Z GFS is different, but I don't trust the 6Z and 18Z GFS runs too much.

[srainhoutx]

Models are 'sniffing' cyclogenesis, so I would not worry too much that the NHC dropped the area in the SW Caribbean. I have been thinking this would be a slower process with the monsoonal gyre we are seeing. I agree wxman57, early next week is the time to watch.

[wxman57]

The only reason the NHC indicated a 10% hatched area there yesterday was that there were a few storms there. The storms are gone today, so the hatched area is gone. NHC doesn't indicate a hatched area for something that's forecast to develop unless there is already a disturbance there.

I do think that the models may be correct in sniffing out this development. Not sure if it'll track NW then W into Central America as the 00Z models forecast or whether it might be picked up by the trof to the north, possibly threatening south FL and/or the Bahamas around next weekend.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z GFS is back to a northerly movement toward western Jamaica at 144hrs and indicates a NNE-NE movement across Cuba and Bahamas beyond then (though those panels aren't in yet).

Do you feel the GFS is being too aggressive with changing the upper air pattern north of 20N in a little over a week?

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is back to a northerly movement toward western Jamaica at 144hrs and indicates a NNE-NE movement across Cuba and Bahamas beyond then (though those panels aren't in yet).

Do you feel the GFS is being too aggressive with changing the upper air pattern north of 20N in a little over a week?

May have spoken too soon. Panels 147-156 hrs indicate a slow WNW movement about 180 miles SW of Jamaica.

[SouthDadeFish]

I mean in terms of relaxing the wind shear also. Looks like a pretty favorable environment to me.

[SouthDadeFish]

Ummm..... Woah:

[Blown Away]

Wow, that grabs your attention! Where does the track go from there?