WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[keysha_gurl]

HI GUYS!!

I am set to leave Manila on Wednesday evening for Hong Kong on a 5 day vacation with my boyfriend. My boyfriend is coming from the states and has a stop over in Narita, Tokyo and should be there by wednesday morning. I am aware that there is a typhoon brewing and it could possible affect travel plans. I have 2 sets of questions now that i will greatly appreciate if someone could help me with.

1. Will I still be able to leave for HK on wednesday evening? and arrive safely in HK with not much weather disturbance? will the typhoon hit HK?
2. Will my boyfriend be able to take his connecting flight from tokyo to HK with no delays due to severe weather?

I hope someone could help me out. I would really truly appreciate any enlightenment from you wise people.

Thank you and looking forward to your replies!

[Typhoon10]

ya moving just N like that would be really bad since it wouldnt weaken as much along the W coast

Hey Rob, was going to ask that. If it takes the JMA track, would it lose significantly less strength than if it went overland? Also if it takes that track, surely its going to move even closer to HK?

[Typhoon Hunter]

HI GUYS!!
1. Will I still be able to leave for HK on wednesday evening? and arrive safely in HK with not much weather disturbance? will the typhoon hit HK?
2. Will my boyfriend be able to take his connecting flight from tokyo to HK with no delays due to severe weather?

1. Way to early to tell yet, Megi will likely be in S China sea by then but impossible to determine where yet.

2. Depends how close Megi gets to HK. He has more of a chance of getting NO disruption to his flight. Your flight might have to take a long route around the storm if it's sat in middle of S China Sea.

By Monday should have a much better idea on whether it will affect HK or not.

[StormingB81]

NOGAPS Still wants this storm to come to Okinawa...I was thinking maybe it would jump ship with everyone else

[Typhoon Hunter]

NOGAPS Still wants this storm to come to Okinawa...I was thinking maybe it would jump ship with everyone else

NOGAPS is complete outlier, you need to look at model trends, so it's really not worth getting excited about every 6 hours when a new NOGAPS run comes out showing the blowing away of Okinawa when no other models support it. If other models start falling in line then I'll consider taking a look at it.

[dexterlabio]

Cool to know that PAGASA used Twitter to issue hourly updates. They've been saying that it's impossible to have an advisory every hour, but when you talk about Twitter, or Facebook, nothing is impossible.

Another STY Cimaron for Northern Luzon. It's been a long time since I heard Signal No. 4 raised in any areas here in PI, maybe 4 years ago since Cimaron, Chebi and Durian...

[StormingB81]

Im not..I believe in everyone else that it will go around PI. Maybe it will die down before hand though. I was just stating how they arnt backing down from thier model...lol

[dexterlabio]

TY 1013 (Megi)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 15 October 2010
<Analyses at 15/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°40'(15.7°)
E135°35'(135.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°05'(18.1°)
E130°55'(130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 17/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°50'(17.8°)
E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide

[KWT]

ECM still on board for a monster storm in the South China Sea and so even weakening over Luzon may not be long lasting as conditions aloft are clearly good...

For now the system is holding steady but its still got quite a while before it gets to Luzon, worst case is it bombs out just before land...

[dhoeze]

for the last 3 hours, it is still gaining latitude...

[StormingB81]

SHould gain latitude till late tomorrow early sunday...if it goes past that well maybe they wil change forcast..but i dont think it will go west for about another 36 hours according to the forecast

[GCANE]

Core and eyewall looks to be getting smalller in diameter.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

[dexterlabio]

Critical time maybe tomorrow evening if it fails to bend westwards.

[supercane]

Catch-up advisories:
SUBJ: TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 010
WTPN31 PGTW 150900
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 136.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 136.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.3N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.5N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.6N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.2N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.1N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.1N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 136.1E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 910 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW WITH IMPROVED OUTFLOW
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW.
TY 15W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TOWARD A WEAKNESS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA.
THE 15/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW A MAJOR MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN ASIA WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 128E. THE STR HAS REMAINED STRONG AND EXTENDS FROM
A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N 133E WESTWARD TO 130E. THIS STR
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTH-
EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO
TURN MORE WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LUZON. TY 15W SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
TAU 72 AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON. MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING
UKMO, JGSM, ECMWF AND GFS (AS WELL AS ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS), IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE ONLY OUTLIERS ARE
NOGAPS, WBAR AND GFDN WHICH INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS POSITIONED
SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THESE
OUTLIERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND
160900Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 15.7N 135.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 18.1N 130.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 171200UTC 18.4N 126.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 181200UTC 17.8N 122.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 191200UTC 17.8N 120.8E 280NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
120HF 201200UTC 17.8N 119.9E 375NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY =



WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.6N 135.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 135.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.9N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.9N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.4N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.5N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.9N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.1N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.3N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 135.1E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151059Z
SSMIS 37H IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WHERE OUTFLOW IS HINDERED BY A TUTT LOW NEAR 20N
130E AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE TCB AND
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. RJTD
IS CURRENTLY AT 70 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 15W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A WEAKNESS
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THE 15/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW
A MAJOR MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN ASIA WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 128E. THE STR HAS REMAINED STRONG AND EXTENDS FROM A HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 24N 133E WESTWARD TO 130E. THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO TURN MORE WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
LUZON. TY 15W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE (INCLUDING
IMPROVING OUTFLOW AS THE TUTT LOW WEAKENS) CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72,
AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL OVER LUZON. MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING UKMO, JGSM, ECMWF AND
GFS (AS WELL AS ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS), IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AND SHOWS A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE ONLY OUTLIERS ARE NOGAPS,
WBAR AND GFDN. GFDN HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN WHILE NOGAPS HAS BEEN HIGHLY ERRATIC OVER THE
PAST 5 RUNS AND NOW INDICATES A RE-CURVE TRACK TOWARD OKINAWA. THE
CURRENT NOGAPS TRACK MAKES LITTLE SENSE AS THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
INTO A STRONG, BROAD LOW-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST ASIA
(INTO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW) AND ALSO TRACKS THE SYSTEM
THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREFORE, THE NOGAPS SOLUTION IS
DISCOUNTED. THE GFDN SOLUTION IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC WITH A TRACK INTO
THE WESTERN STEERING RIDGE. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS, THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS POSITIONED SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
THESE OUTLIERS AND FAVORS THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF UKMO, ECMWF, GFS AND
JGSM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER LUZON
AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY WHILE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AT TYPHOON STRENGTH.
THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER OF MODELS.//
NNNN

Dvoraks T5.0 for KNES and PGTW, T4.5 for RJTD:
TXPN23 KNES 150901
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 15/0830Z
C. 15.2N
D. 136.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/AMSU
H. REMARKS...MEGI CONTINUES TO TRY TO FORM AND EYE BUT NEW DEEP
BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVERSHOOT THE EYEWALL AND CONTINUE TO OBSCURE IT.
CONFIDENCE IN LLC FIX IS QUITE GOOD STILL AND CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN
WHITE FOR DT OF 5.0. MET IS 4.5 AND PT IS 5.0 FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
15/0442Z 14.9N 136.7E AMSU
...GALLINA
=

922
TCNA21 RJTD 151200
CCAA 15120 47644 MEGI(1013) 17157 11356 13244 245// 93111=

TPPN11 PGTW 151215
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 15/1130Z
C. 15.8N
D. 135.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 30A/PBO CDO/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN WHITE YIELDS A
DT OF 5.0. PT AND MET YIELD A 4.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
UEHARA

[RobWESTPACWX]

So tired, late night, anyhow, here is my Midnight update, a little late getting out. Let me know what you guys think as usual, I listen to all comments and suggestions.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKeD4JBcGRo[/youtube]

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 16.1N 135.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 18.3N 130.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 171200UTC 18.4N 126.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 181200UTC 17.8N 122.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

Eye obscured by convection on IR:


Eye still clear on microwave:


Weakness in ridge that is allowing current NW motion evident on 200-mb streamline analysis; quite different compared with yesterday's solid STR:


Looks like storm will enter Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) soon, so will be interesting to see PAGASA's first forecast for "Juan".

Was wondering where your update was, Rob. You're up quite late today.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya supercane, I'm beat. Went and sang some karaoke earlier with the wife and son, tons of fun but exhausting. Then back to do this, I'm such a weather geek, I tell you that, I'm on vacation right now and I do more analysis than if I was at work.

Anyhow off topic, pretty well defined eye on that microwave imagery there.

[supercane]

PAGASA update below, some inaccuracies ("intensified into a Typhoon over Marianas", still noted as TS in graphic):

Typhoon "MEGI" update
FOR: THE TYPHOON "MEGI"
Issued at 5:00 p.m., 15 October 2010
As of 2:00 p.m. today, the Tropical Storm with international name "MEGI" has intensified into a Typhoon over Marianas. It was estimated at 1,200 km east of Southern Luzon (14.9°N, 136.6°E)

Maximum sustained winds: 120 kph near center

Gustiness: up to 150 kph

Direction: West Northwest

Speed: 20 kph

Estimated Central Pressure: 976 hPa

Estimated time of entry to PAR: Between 12MN and 2 AM tomorrow (Saturday, October 16)

Possible landfall area: Over the Eastern Coast of Cagayan-Isabela

Possible time of landfall: Monday afternoon (October 18).

Possible exit area: Ilocos Sur

Forecast over NCR: If there should be no change on the Typhoon movement, NCR will not be directly hit. However, on Monday expect that it will be cloudy over the area. These clouds may bring rains in some places. 3-DAY-FORECAST COORDINATES

24HOUR: 16.7°N, 132.3°E
48HOUR: 17.8°N, 127.6°E
72HOUR: 17.9°N, 122.7°E

Rob, sounds like a fun night. Good update as always. Get some sleep. I'm off too, and like you am amazed at how much time storm tracking can take. Want to keep watching the storm, but have to walk away from the computer and do other things.

[KWT]

IR doesn't look as hot as it could do but the microwave still shows a pretty potent looking system, 90-95kts sounds about right at the moment...

System is gaining alot of latitude and given the current forecasted track it wouldn't take much for this system to lift up enough to at least landfall on Luzon but its clearly going to be a close call...

I think the JWTC is decent at the moment based on the models, just gotta hope it won't make landfall at that sort of strength, 130kts is beastly!