Disturbed area north of Panama - (Is invest 99L)

[SouthDadeFish]

Has it directly hitting SFL. But thats 240 hours, take it with a grain of salt.

[SouthDadeFish]

I haven't seen the GFS this aggressive with a storm since Igor. Considering this is being forecast from nothingness yet, that's quite impressive. The consistency of this development is convincing.

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS Tracks it NNW across western Cuba and then turns it NNE tracking across SE FL into the Atlantic.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/mode ... es/gfs_slp

[cycloneye]

12z CMC joins NOGAPS and GFS in the very bullish camp for this area.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z CMC @ hour 144...

[FireRat]

Interesting consistency really makes me believe this is for real y'all. October 25 is just 10 days away.

[SouthDadeFish]

Oct 25 is not the important day. That's fantasy land. But development in the 96-120 hour time frame is realistic.

[KWT]

Yeah quite a few of the models are getting increasingly agressive now with developing something, given we've already had 3 systems out from the W.CAribbean and the fact we have a strong La Nina I'd certainly bet on another system developing.

Paula showed conditions at least south of 20N right now are very favourable and this one could easily end up being a hurricane down the line IF it develops.

[Vortex]

Now this looks like the real deal!

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^

Not even nearly convinced of this area yet. I hate to say it but the models as much too weak even 96 hours out is such a monster stretch....and the time frame just keeps getting pushed back day after day after day....


I've said it before and i'll say it again, hugging models just isn't worth the time. The NHC removing the TWO is also very telling. I am thinking it's more likely this won't pan out than it will, IMO. We could wake up tomorrow and all the sudden the GFS is showing a ton of shear and everyone will again say its just a faulty run, and then it pans out.



Hugging the models just hasn't panned out well at all this year...I think overall I can't honestly say any one model with perhaps the exception of the CMC has done very well, imo.

[srainhoutx]

^^^

Yet the 12Z GFS ensemble members suggest cyclogenesis and development. We will continue to discuss the models as this is Talkin’ Tropics and that's what we do, discuss probable storm development.

[caneseddy]

^^^

Not even nearly convinced of this area yet. I hate to say it but the models as much too weak even 96 hours out is such a monster stretch....and the time frame just keeps getting pushed back day after day after day....


I've said it before and i'll say it again, hugging models just isn't worth the time. The NHC removing the TWO is also very telling. I am thinking it's more likely this won't pan out than it will, IMO.

Actually, the GFS in all its runs has been consistent with genesis and the South Florida landfall; every run that has had Richard impacting South Florida has been between the 23rd and 25th so it has not pushed back

As to the NHC dropping it, read Wxman's comment above on why they dropped it; even he agrees with the models sniffing development

IMO, the fact that they already put a percentage in that area (even though it was dropped) is telling because that means the NHC is already paying attention to the models showing cyclogenesis developing. Just because this 10% was dropped does not mean something won't get going..remember that the models do not indicate development starting until early next week

[srainhoutx]

One thing to consider is the Rex Blocking pattern that guidance has depicted out West for the past several days. The pattern across the E Gulf and Caribbean may well look a bit different than we have seen in a while IMO.

[LarryWx]

12z Euro is being a prude and has little Richard evidence. Like night and day with the 12Z gfs.

[Vortex]

This area north of Panama portrayed by the models looks like what many of us feared might transpire in mid-late october in a la nina type season ...


GFS H96



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

[Vortex]

H120 beginning to crank SW of Jamaica



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[Vortex]

H144 strengthening SW of Jamaica



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

[Vortex]

H168 Hurricane Richard between Jamaica and Honduras



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[Vortex]

H192 really intensifying west of jamaica and S of Central Cuba moving NNW....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[Vortex]

H216 landfall over western cuba


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif