TPPN11 PGTW 151606
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 15/1430Z
C. 16.4N
D. 134.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
KIENZLE
Yes, gaining much latitude. Good news for Luzon if this trend continues till tomorrow.
WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3468
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Typhoon Hunter
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1221
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- Location: Tokyo
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
JMA 12z taking Megi right smack into NE Luzon. And very tight model agreement according to JTWC's latest prognostic reasoning.
Don't be fooled by the current gain in latitude since it seems that most models and agencies are still going for a major smash into Luzon! (JMA, JTWC, CWB, HKO, NMC...)
Don't be fooled by the current gain in latitude since it seems that most models and agencies are still going for a major smash into Luzon! (JMA, JTWC, CWB, HKO, NMC...)
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Yeah, the only thing I would mention though TH is the forecast is for a hit right on the NE coast, you'd only need a small adjustment for it to miss land to the north, esp if the track to the WSW doesn't quite come as rapidly as progged.
Going to be an interesting 72hrs though for sure, I'd still say the NE Luzon threat is very real...
Going to be an interesting 72hrs though for sure, I'd still say the NE Luzon threat is very real...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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phwxenthusiast
- Category 2
- Posts: 637
- Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
- Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)
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ManilaTC
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 593
- Age: 47
- Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 5:13 am
- Location: Mandaluyong City, Philippines
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
phwxenthusiast wrote:12z GFS forecasting a wsw movement once it reaches 125E... CMC, UKMET almost the same...
LOLGAPS outlier as usual...
This is what scares me, is that what if the WSW movement happens earlier than expected... this means that the system will plunge into Central Luzon instead of Northern Luzon, just like what Mirinae did last year.
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The above post is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. Please refer to your official national weather agency.
WEB http://goo.gl/JDiKXB | FB https://goo.gl/N5sIle | @ManilaTC
WEB http://goo.gl/JDiKXB | FB https://goo.gl/N5sIle | @ManilaTC
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phwxenthusiast
- Category 2
- Posts: 637
- Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
- Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
ClarkEligue wrote:phwxenthusiast wrote:12z GFS forecasting a wsw movement once it reaches 125E... CMC, UKMET almost the same...
LOLGAPS outlier as usual...
This is what scares me, is that what if the WSW movement happens earlier than expected... this means that the system will plunge into Central Luzon instead of Northern Luzon, just like what Mirinae did last year.
hmmm, you raise a good point... again, it all depends on the steering flow but a southern component is almost likely, how far south is still up in the air... god, i hope it doesn't go as far south as Manila though...
anyway, JMA did raise the winds to 75kts...
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WTPQ50 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 16.7N 134.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 18.6N 129.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 171800UTC 18.6N 125.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 181800UTC 17.7N 121.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 191800UTC 17.5N 118.8E 280NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
120HF 201800UTC 17.5N 117.7E 375NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 16.7N 134.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 18.6N 129.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 171800UTC 18.6N 125.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 181800UTC 17.7N 121.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 191800UTC 17.5N 118.8E 280NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
120HF 201800UTC 17.5N 117.7E 375NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY =
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WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 134.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.7N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.9N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.6N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.0N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.4N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.8N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 133.7E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151719Z AMSU
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE TUTT LOW, PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 20N 130E, BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE AND CONCURRENT SATELLITE FIXES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD AT 15/18Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD
BASED ON AN IMPROVED BANDING SIGNATURE IN IR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TOWARD A WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD, THE STR
IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND RE-BUILD TO THE WEST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO TURN WESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AND OCEANIC (HIGH
SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT) CONDITIONS AS IT APPROACHES LUZON.
TY MEGI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON BETWEEN TAU
48 AND TAU 72 AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY AND SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
LUZON. AFTER TAU 72 TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AT TYPHOON INTENSITY AND TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD HAINAN.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NOGAPS AND WBAR, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD INTO
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST ASIA. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE EGRR, ECMWF, JGSM, AND GFS TRACKERS WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARD LUZON. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 134.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.0N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.7N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.9N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.6N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.0N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.4N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.8N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 133.7E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151719Z AMSU
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE TUTT LOW, PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 20N 130E, BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE AND CONCURRENT SATELLITE FIXES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD AT 15/18Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD
BASED ON AN IMPROVED BANDING SIGNATURE IN IR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TOWARD A WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD, THE STR
IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND RE-BUILD TO THE WEST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO TURN WESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AND OCEANIC (HIGH
SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT) CONDITIONS AS IT APPROACHES LUZON.
TY MEGI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON BETWEEN TAU
48 AND TAU 72 AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY AND SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
LUZON. AFTER TAU 72 TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AT TYPHOON INTENSITY AND TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD HAINAN.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NOGAPS AND WBAR, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD INTO
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST ASIA. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE EGRR, ECMWF, JGSM, AND GFS TRACKERS WHICH HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TOWARD LUZON. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//
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First PAGASA bulletin on "Juan" (aka Megi):
WTPH RPMM 151800
TTT TYPHOON WARNING 01
AT 1800 15 OCTOBER TYPHOON (MEGI) {1013} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 161800 ONE EIGHT POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 171800 ONE EIGHT POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE AT 181800 ONE SEVEN POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA
Latest KNES Dvorak down to T4.5:
TXPN23 KNES 152120
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 15/2030Z
C. 16.9N
D. 133.8E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/5.0/W0.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...CENTER EMBEDDED IN BLACK GIVING A DT OF 5.0. MET IS A
4.5. PT AGREES. FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NEWHARD
=
Recon flying into Megi now, will be curious to see current intensity.
WTPH RPMM 151800
TTT TYPHOON WARNING 01
AT 1800 15 OCTOBER TYPHOON (MEGI) {1013} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 161800 ONE EIGHT POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 171800 ONE EIGHT POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE AT 181800 ONE SEVEN POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA
Latest KNES Dvorak down to T4.5:
TXPN23 KNES 152120
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 15/2030Z
C. 16.9N
D. 133.8E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/5.0/W0.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...CENTER EMBEDDED IN BLACK GIVING A DT OF 5.0. MET IS A
4.5. PT AGREES. FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NEWHARD
=
Recon flying into Megi now, will be curious to see current intensity.
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WTPQ20 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 16.9N 133.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 19.0N 128.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 171800UTC 18.6N 125.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 181800UTC 17.7N 121.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
BTW, sat fixes from other agencies (no Dvoraks for intermediate times from PGTW or RJTD):
TPPN11 PGTW 152112
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 15/2030Z
C. 17.1N
D. 135.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/1658Z 16.6N 134.7E MMHS
15/1719Z 16.6N 134.6E MMHS
KIENZLE
104
TCNA20 RJTD 152100
CCAA 15210 47644 MEGI(1013) 17169 11336 124/4 2//// 93016=
Still waiting for recon to make an eye run; Skew-T suggests some mid-level dry air around 500-700 mb layer.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 16.9N 133.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 19.0N 128.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 171800UTC 18.6N 125.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 181800UTC 17.7N 121.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
BTW, sat fixes from other agencies (no Dvoraks for intermediate times from PGTW or RJTD):
TPPN11 PGTW 152112
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 15/2030Z
C. 17.1N
D. 135.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/1658Z 16.6N 134.7E MMHS
15/1719Z 16.6N 134.6E MMHS
KIENZLE
104
TCNA20 RJTD 152100
CCAA 15210 47644 MEGI(1013) 17169 11336 124/4 2//// 93016=
Still waiting for recon to make an eye run; Skew-T suggests some mid-level dry air around 500-700 mb layer.
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ManilaTC
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
Is it just me, or is there a turn to the west over last 3 hrs as per JMA...
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The above post is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. Please refer to your official national weather agency.
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ManilaTC
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
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The above post is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. Please refer to your official national weather agency.
WEB http://goo.gl/JDiKXB | FB https://goo.gl/N5sIle | @ManilaTC
WEB http://goo.gl/JDiKXB | FB https://goo.gl/N5sIle | @ManilaTC
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Chris_in_Tampa
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Anyone know where to find archived West Pacific recon data? Like the older observations for Megi?
Update: I did just find this:
http://www.opennoaaport.net:8015/rst/txt/pgua/
If anyone knows of where to find even older messages, please PM me. Thanks.
Update: I did just find this:
http://www.opennoaaport.net:8015/rst/txt/pgua/
If anyone knows of where to find even older messages, please PM me. Thanks.
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oaba09
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1496
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- Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
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- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
ClarkEligue wrote:Is it just me, or is there a turn to the west over last 3 hrs as per JMA...
I also noticed that based on the sat loops....It seems to be moving westwards now...
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Chris_in_Tampa wrote:Anyone know where to find archived West Pacific recon data? Like the older observations for Megi?
Update: I did just find this:
http://www.opennoaaport.net:8015/rst/txt/pgua/
If anyone knows of where to find even older messages, please PM me. Thanks.
ITOP keeps most of the obs in the catalog. Start at the ITOP field catalog, then go to the "Missions" tab and find the date in question.
Latest microwave:
Latest ITOP forecast:
TROPICAL CYCLONE BRIEF
Storm ID: Name: Tropical Low
Issued at: 2159 UTC 15/10/2010
Data at: 1200 UTC 15 October 2010
TECHNICAL REMARKS
Consensus on 2xEC, 1xUK, 1xGFS. Fcst position then adjusted 0.4 degrees further north to allow for model drift trend over last few days.
Latitude: 15.6N
Longitude: 135.6E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm (75 km)
Movement Towards: northwest (306 deg)
Speed of Movement: 12 knots (22 km/h)
Bearing 1: From Guam
At +0: 550 nm (1020 km) west northwest
At +12: 710 nm (1320 km) west northwest
At +24: 860 nm (1600 km) west northwest
At +36: 1020 nm (1880 km) west northwest
At +48: 1140 nm (2100 km) west northwest
At +60: 1240 nm (2300 km) west northwest
At +72: 1370 nm (2530 km) west
Maximum 10 Minute Mean Wind: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Central Pressure: 965 hPa
FORECAST DATA *** Mean wind is 10 minute mean wind ***
Date/Time : Location : Acc : Mean: Max : Pres :
(UTC) : degrees : nm : kts : kts : hPa : 3
+0 : 15/1200 : 15.6N 135.6E : 040 : 070 : 100 : 965 :
+6 : 15/1800 : 16.6N 134.5E : 055 : 070 : 100 : 965 :
+12 : 16/0000 : 17.5N 133.3E : 070 : 080 : 115 : 960 :
+18 : 16/0600 : 18.1N 132.2E : 085 : 085 : 120 : 955 :
+24 : 16/1200 : 18.7N 130.8E : 100 : 090 : 125 : 950 :
+36 : 17/0000 : 19.5N 128.3E : 100 : 100 : 140 : 945 :
+48 : 17/1200 : 18.9N 126.0E : 110 : 100 : 140 : 940 :
+60 : 18/0000 : 18.1N 123.8E : 120 : 100 : 140 : 940 :
+72 : 18/1200 : 17.4N 121.6E : 135 : 070 : 100 : 960 :
+84 : 19/0000 : 16.9N 119.7E : 160 : 080 : 115 : 950 :
+96 : 19/1200 : 16.6N 117.8E : 170 : 080 : 115 : 950 :
*** 10 minute mean wind - increase by about 10% to get to 1 minute mean wind***
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