WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

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supercane
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#401 Postby supercane » Sat Oct 16, 2010 2:32 am

WTPQ50 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 17.2N 133.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 18.8N 128.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 180000UTC 18.2N 123.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 190000UTC 17.2N 118.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 200000UTC 17.1N 116.6E 280NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
120HF 210000UTC 17.0N 115.2E 375NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY =

Image


WTPQ20 BABJ 160600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 160600 UTC
00HR 18.1N 131.6E 955HPA 40M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 80KM
P12HR WNW 25KM/H
P+24HR 18.8N 126.1E 940HPA 50M/S
P+48HR 18.0N 122.0E 955HPA 40M/S
P+72HR 17.1N 118.6E 950HPA 42M/S
P+96HR 17.2N 115.5E 945HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 17.5N 113.7E 935HPA 48M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 160600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME TY 1013 MEGI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 160600UTC 18.1N 131.6E
MOVEMENT WNW 16KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 170600UTC 18.9N 125.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 180600UTC 17.8N 120.5E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 190600UTC 16.9N 116.4E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Megi has less than 48hr to intensify by 40kt to reach super typhoon status before anticipated landfall. Satellite appearance is improving with better outflow on the west, so we'll see.
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Re:

#402 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Oct 16, 2010 2:38 am

phwxenthusiast wrote:hmm, it looks like PAGASA does have a doppler radar in Aparri, but they noted that it's somewhat old... how i wish they post that on their website... :(



Say what?
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#403 Postby Anonymous_daw » Sat Oct 16, 2010 2:42 am

good am/pm gurus. just wondering, we just had a brief rainshower with thunder here in quezon city, metro manila and the skies are still dark. does this have anything to do with Megi? or is this just an ordinary shower. thanks
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#404 Postby ejeraldmc » Sat Oct 16, 2010 2:42 am

Looking impressive...

Image
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Re: Re:

#405 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Oct 16, 2010 2:44 am

RobWESTPACWX wrote:
phwxenthusiast wrote:hmm, it looks like PAGASA does have a doppler radar in Aparri, but they noted that it's somewhat old... how i wish they post that on their website... :(



Say what?


here's the excerpt from an article...:

"PAGASA could not yet determine the exact amount of rainfall that Juan is carrying as it is still too far from the agency's nearest Doppler radar in Aparri.

The agency also has two new Doppler radars in Baler, Aurora and Baguio City, Benguet but they are out of Juan's path. PAGASA assured that the Aparri radar, while relatively old, can still gather reliable rainfall rate data."

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/203577/looming-super-typhoon-juan-1st-of-strong-cyclones-to-come
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#406 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Oct 16, 2010 2:46 am

Anonymous_daw wrote:good am/pm gurus. just wondering, we just had a brief rainshower with thunder here in quezon city, metro manila and the skies are still dark. does this have anything to do with Megi? or is this just an ordinary shower. thanks



Hey there, glad to have you with us, what you got earlier was an ordinary shower, may have been enhanced a little by the inflow from the storm but nothing directly associated with it. Tomorrow afternoon you should start seeing direct rain bands from the system
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#407 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Oct 16, 2010 2:48 am

another sat image, this time from PAGASA... looks really good here too... i expect somewhere around 100-105kts on JTWC's 06z update...

Image
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#408 Postby Anonymous_daw » Sat Oct 16, 2010 2:53 am

RobWESTPACWX wrote:
Anonymous_daw wrote:good am/pm gurus. just wondering, we just had a brief rainshower with thunder here in quezon city, metro manila and the skies are still dark. does this have anything to do with Megi? or is this just an ordinary shower. thanks



Hey there, glad to have you with us, what you got earlier was an ordinary shower, may have been enhanced a little by the inflow from the storm but nothing directly associated with it. Tomorrow afternoon you should start seeing direct rain bands from the system



Thanks for the info. we're just feeling nervous here because from reading all your posts, it seems that Megi is really strong. guess we really have to prepare for it. thanks again.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#409 Postby zeekat » Sat Oct 16, 2010 3:04 am

According to an earlier news conference by PAGASA, their Aparri Doppler Radar has a range of 500 kms so we'll know rain estimates once MEGI fall within range.

By the way, hourly updates of PAGASA are now posted and updated at
http://twitter.com/dost_pagasa
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#410 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 16, 2010 3:11 am

phwxenthusiast wrote:another sat image, this time from PAGASA... looks really good here too... i expect somewhere around 100-105kts on JTWC's 06z update...

Image


Agree. This is now a major typhoon IMO. Scary thing that landfall is still 2 days away. I wonder when a decent eye will appear.
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#411 Postby ejeraldmc » Sat Oct 16, 2010 3:15 am

I can see the eye forming from the satellite loops...
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#412 Postby ejeraldmc » Sat Oct 16, 2010 3:16 am

Heavy rains here in Southern Luzon...
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#413 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Oct 16, 2010 3:35 am

Yeah, my pal Jim Edds saw the radar dome when he was in Aparri last year, said it had laundry strung up across it drying in the sun! :D

Bags all packed and heading to airport in 45 minutes. Someone else also wants to join me on the trip...

Image
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#414 Postby ejeraldmc » Sat Oct 16, 2010 4:03 am

On Saturday 16th October 2010, @dost_pagasa said:

@StiylMagnus931 Data generated from our Radars are available upon written request. Radar information, on the other hand, are uploaded in our website.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#415 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Oct 16, 2010 4:06 am

ejeraldmc wrote:On Saturday 16th October 2010, @dost_pagasa said:

@StiylMagnus931 Data generated from our Radars are available upon written request. Radar information, on the other hand, are uploaded in our website.


interesting, will look on it today...

anyway, JTWC increased winds to 100kts now... 8-)
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#416 Postby Typhoon10 » Sat Oct 16, 2010 4:18 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Yeah, my pal Jim Edds saw the radar dome when he was in Aparri last year, said it had laundry strung up across it drying in the sun! :D

Bags all packed and heading to airport in 45 minutes. Someone else also wants to join me on the trip...



Nice little dog TH, looks like he is going to miss you. Have fun and look forward to the video's. I wish I was coming with you
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#417 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 16, 2010 4:55 am

All packed for Megi, Typhoon Hunter. :lol: Is the nice little dog coming with you?



The storm looks impressive, but it would be a lot more impressive if the western periphery of the circulation starts improving.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#418 Postby oaba09 » Sat Oct 16, 2010 5:28 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Yeah, my pal Jim Edds saw the radar dome when he was in Aparri last year, said it had laundry strung up across it drying in the sun! :D

Bags all packed and heading to airport in 45 minutes. Someone else also wants to join me on the trip...

Image


Nice dog!

Good luck w/ Megi!
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#419 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Oct 16, 2010 6:23 am

Ahah thanks guys - he's a real little champ!

Just waiting to board the plane, looks like Megi still on track for N Luzon. Long day tomorrow travelling up to forecast landfall zone.
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#420 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Oct 16, 2010 6:26 am

Well NOGAPS finally brings it into N Luzon...funny thing is as soon as it does that it puts it NE..whats with NOGAPS wanting to being this storm near Okinawa..lol
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