Disturbed area north of Panama - (Is invest 99L)

[CourierPR]

It would head right into Central America everything is moving WNW.

I do not think so. Latest TWO has it moving north.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[LarryWx]

Both the 0Z and 6Z GFS runs have Richard staying to the left and dieing over C.A./MX. Although only the third most frequent scenario, this is a very reasonable possibility per climo, which shows that a respectable 20% of W. Caribbean mid to late OCT storms (13 of 64) have done just that kind of thing. The 0Z Euro doesn't even have Richard.

[wzrgirl1]

What is c.a.? I know it isn't California....

[Ad Novoxium]

Central America I'm thinking.

[wzrgirl1]

Yes I should have known that. Haven't had my coffee yet..... Thanks!

[andrewsurvivor]

Yep, Central America. If that scenerio plays out flooding could be a serious issue.

[gatorcane]

Both the 0Z and 6Z GFS runs have Richard staying to the left and dieing over C.A./MX. Although only the third most frequent scenario, this is a very reasonable possibility per climo, which shows that a respectable 20% of W. Caribbean mid to late OCT storms (13 of 64) have done just that kind of thing. The 0Z Euro doesn't even have Richard.

Cmc also pushes it into central America. Should this happen, the US's luck continues as this is only a 20% chance based on climo and one would think troughs would be around this time of year to pull it northward.

Also, though the ecmwf doesn't pick up on this system, check out the 500mb heights a week from now. Looks like ridging builds in a big way over the nw caribbean. The flow across the conus becomes very zonal.

Looks like no threat to the conus at this time.

[wzrgirl1]

I think it would be pretty amazing if we ended up having a hyperactive season with no U.S. landfalls. Don't you think?

[wxman57]

00Z trend was definitely westward into Nicaragua vs. north to Cuba/FL/Bahamas. The slower this system develops, the more time it gives for that high center to build to its north, blocking movement to the north. 00Z GFS doesn't really forecast much development until late Tuesday or on Wednesday. That's about the time that the trof axis is passing by to its north. Too late to pick it up. This doesn't mean it's a shut case. There's a chance that it could be picked up and carried N-NE.

[srainhoutx]

Rainfall rates N of Panama look impressive this morning...

[cycloneye]

Rainfall rates N of Panama look impressive this morning...

Raining hard at Panama Canal.

http://reservationsbvi.com/cam/Panama%2 ... ebCam.html

[Vortex]

looks like most of the guidance eventually takes this into CA....while not a given it certainly seems most likely if the ridge sets up the way the globals are forecasting...A month ago I sure thought the east gulf/fl would be threatened if not hit in October but it looks more like 2010 will be the year of the non-event for the US.

[Sanibel]

This bizarre permanent front is firmly in place. Reminds me of the prolonged cold snap last winter.

[CourierPR]

This bizarre permanent front is firmly in place. Reminds me of the prolonged cold snap last winter.

How does this relate to the disturbed area?

[Ntxw]

How does this relate to the disturbed area?

May bring dry air from north preventing significant development. Also protects the U.S coastline from this system potentially. Very November like indeed. Look at how crisp the air is from the Yucatan north throughout the entire gulf! Beautiful beach weather if you ask me

[CourierPR]

looks like most of the guidance eventually takes this into CA....while not a given it certainly seems most likely if the ridge sets up the way the globals are forecasting...A month ago I sure thought the east gulf/fl would be threatened if not hit in October but it looks more like 2010 will be the year of the non-event for the US.

I wouldn't be so hasty. I think we will see formation of a TC by Monday or Tuesday and I suspect the models will flip flop again.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

00z NAM lifting north into the weakness

[caneseddy]

looks like most of the guidance eventually takes this into CA....while not a given it certainly seems most likely if the ridge sets up the way the globals are forecasting...A month ago I sure thought the east gulf/fl would be threatened if not hit in October but it looks more like 2010 will be the year of the non-event for the US.

I wouldn't be so hasty. I think we will see formation of a TC by Monday or Tuesday and I suspect the models will flip flop again.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree with CourierPR... Last week the GFS continuously had a hurricane hitting South Florida as well as the Nogaps indicating a hurricane heading towards W Cuba posters here were concerned....now that the models shifted to C.A the same posters are now saying that the Conus is safe

Let everything play out....remember that there is nothing organized yet so it's not known if Richard will form....and yes just as soon as the models shifted to CA they can just as easily start shifting back to the US

[LarryWx]

I agree with those who say that the US is far from being in the clear yet. Wheras the staying left over CA/MX recently modeled scenario is a reasonable possibility based on the 20% of analogs that did that, don't forget that that same climo has just over twice as many hit the US (42%). Especially with runs as recent as the Fri 12z gfs hitting S FL and considering this climo, it would be ill-advised to give up on a US hit this early.