WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Squarethecircle]

First visible

[KWT]

Amazing looking system, Megi really does look impressive right now.

Few doubts this is going RI right now, eye looks great and there is a heck of alot of deep convection about at the moment...I suspect the 135-140kts range at landfall is a pretty good punt right now and if thats the case this will be a severe event even by Luzon's standards...

[KatDaddy]

Completely totally amazingly perfect! Not much more you can say and thankfully away from land.

[KWT]

The problem is KD in 24hrs this system will likely be either making landfall or just brushing the northern side, either way land is going to feel some huge effects from Megi very soon...hope everyone in its path is ready for a beastly system...

[apocalypt-flyer]

Ouch, wouldn't want to be in the way of that. This one really does look like the real deal. Let's hope the folks in Northern Luzon are prepared for this.

[supercane]

[KatDaddy]

Yes KWT and that is not much time for weakening. Can you imagine going through the eyewall?

[KWT]

It does look like its heading near enough due west now, which isn't a good sign at all for N.Luzon, even if it does't lose any latitude from now on, its still going to hit N.Luzon hard.

Tonight/tomorrow will be a long ole day for them up in N.Luzon...

[supercane]

ITOP discussion:
ITOP_2010 weather summary

Date(UTC): 2010/10/16 23:00

<snip>

Typhoon Megi...has intensified overnight with clear eye...small
system but intense. Has moved WNW at 13 knots in last 24 hours.

<snip>

SATCON intensity @ 16/17Z: 934mb...119 knots
ADT at 16/2030Z: CI of 6.4...918mb...124 knots.

...Plus Aircraft reconn data...measurement of super-typhoon
winds and near record low central pressure (913mb).
Extraordinary measurements in a small storm.

The explosive development...50mb fall in 18 hours...probably in
response to the upper trough enhancing outflow to the north of
the storm.

<snip>

ECMWF performance was cited yesterday with a noticeable creep
north of the track on sucessive runs for last 3 days.
Image 3.

This in fact continued into 16/00Z run but corrected on latest
model run.

<snip>

Model intercomparison at 17/12Z: All models in close agreement.
(By the way, all models showed the same trend of northward creep
but re-corrected).

<snip>

Current Conditions/Review of Yesterday's Forecast:

Consensus forecast placed Megi at 19.1N, which was close to
reality. The correction factor of 0.3 degrees further north did
not enhance the forecast accuracy.
DAY 1 (Tomorrow) Update:

At 17/12Z, Megi is forecast to be near 18.3N 125.3E, moving WSW
11 knots.

Forecast track is as shown:
report.forecast.201010162105.graphic.gif

JTWC warning track: close agreement.
ops.JTWC_track.201010161800.15_track.gif

DAY 2 (Day after tomorrow) Forecast:

In 48 hours at 18/00Z: Megi expected near 17.8N 123.2E, moving
WSW 11 knots.
Longterm Outlook:

ITOP will end. In the area of the float array (19N 128E) winds
are expected to ease as the typhoon moves further west.

17/12Z: Winds SE 25/30 knots Rough seas. Heavy swell.
18/00Z: Winds SE 20/25 knots. Rough seas. Heavy swell.
18/12Z: Winds E 20/25 knots. Rough seas. Moderate/Heavy swell.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BRIEF
Storm ID: Name: Tropical Low
Issued at: 2103 UTC 16/10/2010
Data at: 1800 UTC 16 October 2010

TECHNICAL REMARKS
Consensus on 2xEC, 1xUK, 1xGFS. Fcst position then adjusted 0.4 degrees further north to allow for model drift trend over last few days.

Latitude: 18.8N
Longitude: 128.9E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: west northwest (287 deg)
Speed of Movement: 13 knots (24 km/h)

Bearing 1: From Guam
At +0: 970 nm (1800 km) west northwest
At +12: 1110 nm (2050 km) west northwest
At +24: 1220 nm (2260 km) west northwest
At +36: 1350 nm (2490 km) west
At +48: 1470 nm (2720 km) west




Maximum 10 Minute Mean Wind: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots (230 km/h)
Central Pressure: 950 hPa



FORECAST DATA *** Mean wind is 10 minute mean wind ***
Date/Time : Location : Acc : Mean: Max : Pres :
(UTC) : degrees : nm : kts : kts : hPa : 3
+0 : 16/1800 : 18.8N 128.9E : 025 : 090 : 125 : 950 :
+6 : 17/0000 : 19.1N 127.5E : 040 : 100 : 140 : 945 :
+12 : 17/0600 : 18.9N 126.4E : 055 : 100 : 140 : 940 :
+18 : 17/1200 : 18.7N 125.3E : 070 : 100 : 140 : 940 :
+24 : 17/1800 : 18.2N 124.2E : 085 : 100 : 140 : 940 :
+36 : 18/0600 : 17.5N 122.0E : 115 : 100 : 140 : 940 :
+48 : 18/1800 : 17.2N 119.8E : 145 : 070 : 100 : 960 :


*** 10 minute mean wind - increase by about 10% to get to 1 minute mean wind***

[dexterlabio]

For the next bulletin, I guess we will be having a super typhoon. I really think Megi is like Zeb of 1998, the difference is just Zeb made a strike northwards in Luzon island.

The Philippine government has been on full alert since yesterday. I wish they will ensure a zero casualty with the onslaught of Megi.

God bless the Philippines...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Just at the airport in Manila waiting for flight up to Tugearo (sp?!?!). Ironically it's delayed due to weather (not related to typhoon, looks like early morning low cloud.)

Once on location up there will have the full day to recce safe locations to document landfall. Thinking either hospital, public building, something like that.

Gonna be a rough one...

[FireRat]

I'm afraid we're going to see disaster from this one, perhaps hundreds of dead or higher and huge destruction in that zone. Everyone there better be ready for this monster.

[GCANE]

Nice tight, symmetrical core with max temp peaking at 5C at 200mb.

[GCANE]

Looks like shear wouldn't be a problem before landfall.

[oaba09]

Wind speed:

JMA(10 minutes average)-100 knots(185 kph)
JTWC(1 minute average)-125 knots(231 kph)
PAGASA(10 minutes average)-86 knots(160 kph)

[supercane]

Consensus position and Dvoraks T7.0 at 00Z from both PGTW and RJTD:

TPPN11 PGTW 170009
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 16/2330Z
C. 18.7N
D. 127.5E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. A 15NM WMG EYE IS
SURROUNDED BY A 58NM WIDE WHT RING YIELDING A EYE NUMBER OF 6.0.
A COMPLETE CMG RING ADDS 1.0 FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDING A DT
OF 7.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT YIELDS A 6.5 ONLY BECAUSE THAT IS THE
HIGHEST VALUE FOR PT. AND MET YIELDS A 6.5 BECAUSE THE SYSTEM
WAS ONLY 5.0 24HRS AGO.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
KIENZLE

958
TCNA21 RJTD 170000
CCAA 17000 47644 MEGI(1013) 17187 11275 11344 270// 92712=

UW-CIMSS ADT trend:

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just at the airport in Manila waiting for flight up to Tugearo (sp?!?!). Ironically it's delayed due to weather (not related to typhoon, looks like early morning low cloud.)

Once on location up there will have the full day to recce safe locations to document landfall. Thinking either hospital, public building, something like that.

Gonna be a rough one...

Cool, let us know when you get there please.

[KatDaddy]

Be safe Typhoon Hunter. You have an incredible intercept with MEGI.

[GCANE]

Looks like an outer eyewall maybe developing on the east side of the COC.

Hopefully, an ERC will be underway at landfall.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

[KWT]

Its going to be tight though GCANE, esp given conditions still look good aloft till landfall and indeed even after landfall upper conditions are good...

Recon did find an impressive low of 913mbs, this one will probably be sub 900mbs soon I reckon given the look it has and knocking what WPAC systems like this tend to have pressure wise...