Disturbed area north of Panama - (Is invest 99L)

[srainhoutx]

See you all in 2011

So you will not come to the Talking Tropics forum until June 1? The tropical weather fans are all year around discussing all about tropical weather,even if is on the non hurricane season months, as there is always plenty to talk about.For example,the peeps talk about the tropical cyclone reports,how ENSO is doing to see how it will influence the upcomming season.We also talk about the 2011 names and also about which 2010 names are retired. Also,we discuss about what is going on in other basins around the world,about how are the ssts doing in the preseason months,about how is the NAO doing and the forecast for that factor that may influence the 2011 season.Also about we talk about our predictions for the upcomming season as we do the annual Storm2k forecast numbers poll.We discuss about what the experts will forecast for the upcomming season in their preseason outlooks.And we talk about many other themes in the out of season months

Don't forget our Winter discussions. We see many a Pro Met chime in and some very knowledgeable folks as well. You never know who will show up!

[FireRat]

Boy what a difference a day makes! Yesterday we were foreseeing total DOOM and now we're seeing doe-eyedness.

To put it all on the table, the models have been sensing something forming in a few days and becoming something to watch near October 25. That's all we should pay attention to. The models now are being passive, but if you average it out they have practically hinted at development in the Caribbean. The season is far from over for the naysayers and the prospects for DOOM are also out of the water. Just wait a few days to see what is going on in the Caribbean, we are entering some rather storm-favoring dates ahead and for all we know the unseasonal front itself may come back to haunt us by acting as a focus for whatever develops in the near future. Also, we don't know if there is more than one system the models have seen...what if we get another potential farther north, maybe Shary being the one for the 25th time frame. It is still too early to tell for sure and all I can say that the best advice is to simply wait 'till we get a development or not next week, by when then we will be able to track it a bit better.

Just remember, the long range models give A GENERAL IDEA of what may be in the days ahead.
I'm not convinced we've seen the end of 2010 and would watch November with more attention than normal as well for, well,....Tomas.

[Macrocane]

There's one thing I want to mention, remmeber what the GFS did with Paula, it predicted the development of a tropical cyclone for several days later it dropped development just a few days before it in fact verified. I'm not saying it will happen again but certainly we cannot rule out development yet.

[cycloneye]

Is invest 99L so thread is locked. Go to active Storms forum to continue the discussions at the 99L thread.