WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Chacor]

Yes! When people here that "super typhoon" it's like saying in the states a Cat 5 is headed towards you, people listen and they go O, this is going to be really bad. I think that would be safe. Also I think Pagasa should start increasing there signal force. A little early but I think it would be ok for Aparri and Santa Ana.

another thing i don't like with PAGASA... signal no 3 is only issued 18hrs prior to the storm landfall... that doesn't give you much time to prepare does it??

I would like to see PAGASA use a system like the NWS does, with watches and warnings. That would be more effective in preventing casualties. Sometimes by the time they issue signal 4 the storm's already too close.

PAGASA are up to 105 knots/938 hPa but are still way off.

[dexterlabio]

So PAGASA should be calling it a super typhoon now, at least... I have this feeling they will keep Megi's intensity for up to 215kph.

[supercane]

Earlier MW:


Latest:

[hurricaneCW]

It looks like right now, if it continues to head due west which is what it's doing, it would pass or scrape the north coast so that would be some good news instead of a direct hit.

[phwxenthusiast]

Yes! When people here that "super typhoon" it's like saying in the states a Cat 5 is headed towards you, people listen and they go O, this is going to be really bad. I think that would be safe. Also I think Pagasa should start increasing there signal force. A little early but I think it would be ok for Aparri and Santa Ana.

another thing i don't like with PAGASA... signal no 3 is only issued 18hrs prior to the storm landfall... that doesn't give you much time to prepare does it??

I would like to see PAGASA use a system like the NWS does, with watches and warnings. That would be more effective in preventing casualties. Sometimes by the time they issue signal 4 the storm's already too close.

PAGASA are up to 105 knots/938 hPa but are still way off.

i want to see that too... much simpler and doesn't have the technicality of having different signal warnings for different intensities... furthermore, do you know that the cancellation of classes is based on the signal warnings issued by PAGASA??
signal 1 no classes in elementary, 2 no classes up to high school, 3 no classes in college... it's really messed up; do they expect college students to weather out signal 2 winds and heavy rain?!?!

@rob... exactly... there has to be some kind of major revamp in PAGASA, not only in personnel but also on their forecasting as a whole... no amount of state of the art equipments can help them if they keep sticking to the "old system" that they have...

maybe you can work for them once they modernize... lol

[Macrocane]

It's beautiful, the WPAC has been really inactive this year but even in a year like this it can produce this amazing storms. Take care all of you in Philippines and stay safe, and for the chasers good luck and be as safe as possible.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know if JMA has ever used the term (Supertyphoon) to identify very strong systems?

[dexterlabio]

^I never heard JMA used the super typhoon term...only JTWC and CMC used it, as I recall.

[P.K.]

Does anyone know if JMA has ever used the term (Supertyphoon) to identify very strong systems?

Not as far as I know. It is used by the CMA, HKO and JTWC but all three have different meanings for the term unlike say the when a system becomes a typhoon. The CMA and HKO also use the term Severe Typhoon before Super Typhoon.

[Chacor]

[P.K.]

I should also clarify that the JMA do have three categories of typhoons as you will see quoted on the advisories on their web page.

Strong Typhoon - 64-84kts
Intense Typhoon - 85-104kts
Violent Typhoon - 105kts+

The reason they don't have 64-84kts listed as a typhoon is in Japan they call all 34kt+ systems typhoons.

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/help/unit.html.en#id2

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey all, today's going to be a busy day, so I am asking if anyone wants a job? (volunteer job at the moment) If your good at speaking and are a MET or MET equivalant let me know if you want to do up a video to post to my site, just asking here since this is a Mosh pit of weather geek. If you do message me. And of course the vids will continued to be posted here to contribute to storm2k

Anyhow here is this mornings update from my site. Let me know if you have any comments or suggestions. Thanks all!!
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HylYSfMBGv0[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

Thanks to Chacor and Peter for the answer to the question.

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to Super Typhoon=140kts

WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.7N 127.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 127.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.0N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.1N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.2N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.7N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.8N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 126.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

[Macrocane]

First Super Typhoon of the season and fourth category 5 tropical cyclone of the year (Celia, Ului and Edzani were the other 3).

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has a map graphic that shows the city of Tugearo in northen Luzon, where our Storm2k friend Typhoon Hunter will chase Megi?

[GCANE]

Cloud tops warming up a bit.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/flash-ft.html

[dexterlabio]

Cloud tops warming up a bit.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/flash-ft.html

Does it suggest weakening?

[oaba09]

Does anyone has a map graphic that shows the city of Tugearo in northen Luzon, where our Storm2k friend Typhoon Hunter will chase Megi?