WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Ptarmigan]

Quite an impressive storm right there! It's just like Katrina in terms of wind strength.

[phwxenthusiast]

is it me or it looks like cloud tops on the north side are cooling a little??



also compare PAGASA's sat image between 12nn and 1pm (PhT) if you want...

[dexterlabio]

^how do you know whether it's cooling or not bases on the satpic?

[StormingB81]

Here is a question...THis is prolly going to hit PI as a CAT 5..and it supposed to strengethen once it hits the SCS and the yhaving it going back up to a quick cat 3 again...scary thing has a storm ever had 2 different cat 5 landfalls?

[RobWESTPACWX]

^how do you know whether it's cooling or not bases on the satpic?

Dexter, the above pic is an IR shot, so it measures temp, if you look at the northern periphery of the storm and compare it to the temp bar on the bottom you can see the temps are cooler in that area. You really need a loop to do this accurately but PH does show a good point, cooler tops means higher means stronger storm...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is a question...THis is prolly going to hit PI as a CAT 5..and it supposed to strengethen once it hits the SCS and the yhaving it going back up to a quick cat 3 again...scary thing has a storm ever had 2 different cat 5 landfalls?

I don't know.... I'm sure it has happened in the past. But wow thats a scary thought.

[supercane]

Satellite images have different color keys, so to tell the cloud top temperature, look at the color key. Colder temperatures on IR represent higher and more convective cloud tops. The Dvorak technique measures the intensity of a storm by comparing the coldest surrounding pixels to the eye temperature, with a greater difference meaning a stronger storm.

In the case of the image above, the key at the bottom says yellow hues represent temperatures less than -80 C (very cold indeed). Cooling cloud tops would mean moving toward the left side of the color key, or more yellows. Again, different images have difference color schemes, so you must look at the legend to know.

[dexterlabio]

^how do you know whether it's cooling or not bases on the satpic?

Dexter, the above pic is an IR shot, so it measures temp, if you look at the northern periphery of the storm and compare it to the temp bar on the bottom you can see the temps are cooler in that area. You really need a loop to do this accurately but PH does show a good point, cooler tops means higher means stronger storm...

I see... Thank you Rob for answering.

[phwxenthusiast]

^how do you know whether it's cooling or not bases on the satpic?

Dexter, the above pic is an IR shot, so it measures temp, if you look at the northern periphery of the storm and compare it to the temp bar on the bottom you can see the temps are cooler in that area. You really need a loop to do this accurately but PH does show a good point, cooler tops means higher means stronger storm...

i don't think we can post loops here haha but here's a 330z pic when clouds warmed a bit...


then this one, 513z which is the latest, showing -80C again on the northern side...


of course it's not as vigorous compared to the images earlier but i'm guessing we could see one final burst of intensification, unless of course EWRC happens...

[Infdidoll]

Anyone know, based on past storm tracks across Luzon, if the terrain might affect the storm's path any like Fanapi did with Taiwan's coast? I'd never seen anything like it, but then again, I haven't been tracking very long. Then again, this is a big Cat 5, not a relatively small (size-wise, not intensity-wise) Cat 3...maybe this bad boy doesn't care what's standing in its' path! I'm just a little worried with my husband there. This moves a little to the south and it's going to be bad news for him. He sent me some photos he took from the air of Luzon - looked pretty moutainous.

[phwxenthusiast]

Anyone know, based on past storm tracks across Luzon, if the terrain might affect the storm's path any like Fanapi did with Taiwan's coast? I'd never seen anything like it, but then again, I haven't been tracking very long. Then again, this is a big Cat 5, not a relatively small (size-wise, not intensity-wise) Cat 3...maybe this bad boy doesn't care what's standing in its' path! I'm just a little worried with my husband there. This moves a little to the south and it's going to be bad news for him. He sent me some photos he took from the air of Luzon - looked pretty moutainous.

probably nothing too significant of a shift imo... mountains in central northern luzon are usually around 1500-2500m (Mt Pulag being the highest at 2922m)... it will surely weaken but i don't think it will change "Megi's" track.. i mean, we have the Sierra Madre mountain ranges on the Eastern part of Luzon, and as far as i know it only weakens typhoons, i haven't seen any erratic track from storms that have passed through in that region...

of course, i might be wrong...

[euro6208]

I think this could be stronger. When is the next recon?

[ManilaTC]

The sierra madre range along the cagayan coast is not as high as the solid 10000m mountains in taiwan.

Forced evac now underway in Cagayan.

[Infdidoll]

Thanks, Phwx & Clark!

[Typhoon Hunter]

In Aparri, internet connection unstable. Already squally showers here. Met up with Mayor and will be assisting each other with data etc! I informed him of latest recon data!

[supercane]

Dvorak estimates continue at T7.0 for all agencies, including in the 06Z RJTD (JMA) and PGTW (JTWC) sat fix bulletins.

TPPN11 PGTW 170611
A. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 17/0530Z
C. 18.5N
D. 126.2E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 20NM SMALL ROUND WMG EYE WITH
WHITE RING YIELDS A 6.0 PLUS 1.0 FOR CMG SURR RING YIELDS A DT
OF A 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
GATES

720
TCNA21 RJTD 170600
CCAA 17060 47644 MEGI(1013) 17185 11262 11344 270// 92613=

euro6208, there will be no more recon flights into Megi. Since the end of routine reconnaisance flights by the US Air Force in 1987, only Taiwan flies into storms in their vicinity as part of a program called DOTSTAR. Aircraft reconnasisance is incorporated into the current research project called ITOP, but that project is ending. They will fly tomorrow, but to investigate the cold wake left by Megi, not to determine position and strength.

[ManilaTC]

WSW movement and accelerating! Landfall may happen earlier!

I have been tweeting pagasa to raise signal #4 now.

[euro6208]

I have tons of families and relative living in Pangasinan. Is that close to the landfall site?

[ManilaTC]

Pangasinan is off to the west coast but if the storm goes out by Ilocos Sur, it will be affected as well.

[phwxenthusiast]

I have tons of families and relative living in Pangasinan. Is that close to the landfall site?

where exactly?? i'm from Pangasinan too... anyway, Megi will move wsw and is forecast to cross Vigan, which is definitely far from Pangasinan... however, you know that Megi is really huge so don't be surprised if they get tropical storm force winds and moderate to heavy rain... i expect PAGASA to put Pangasinan under signal #2...

cheers

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