WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[P.K.]

This is very similar in intensity to Tip now. The JMA's BT has 140kts for that and the JTWC's 165kts. This is really not good at all.

[Infdidoll]

I'm speechless having seen that 192kt FL reading. This makes it 150kts at the surface even with a 10 min ave.

Stunning.

Haha...in response to that, James says via Twitter: "I feel faint"

I would, too! I can't imagine being in the path of this. Terrifying!

[dexterlabio]

I'm speechless having seen that 192kt FL reading. This makes it 150kts at the surface even with a 10 min ave.

Stunning.

Haha...in response to that, James says via Twitter: "I feel faint"

I would, too! I can't imagine being in the path of this. Terrifying!

I couldn't imagine that kind of wind striking in one area. I know James (TH) is used to his job but this one is no ordinary cyclone.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 18.1N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE WSW 11KT
PRES 895HPA
MXWD 120KT
GUST 170KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 325NM EAST 220NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 17.7N 120.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 191200UTC 17.3N 117.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 201200UTC 17.5N 116.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[Chacor]

Holy crap, 120 kt 895 hPa is incredible.

[Infdidoll]

I couldn't imagine that kind of wind striking in one area. I know James (TH) is used to his job but this one is no ordinary cyclone.

I know! I wish I was so brave, but a storm that big? I'd be running the other way. He's like a firefighter - running in when everyone else is running out. Praying he stays safe along with everyone else in Northern Luzon, tonight. Last few storms I saw with numbers this impressive were out in the middle of the Pacific, not doing anyone any harm. This is different...though I'm certainly glad it's not hitting metro Manila with its greater population.

[Chacor]

This is the first typhoon to be warned on at 895 hPa by JMA since Typhoon Yuri in 1991.

[P.K.]

CMA 140kts.

WTPQ20 BABJ 171200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 171200 UTC
00HR 18.1N 125.0E 895HPA 72M/S
30KTS 320KM
50KTS 110KM
P12HR W 20KM/H
P+24HR 17.6N 120.5E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 17.3N 117.7E 950HPA 45M/S
P+72HR 17.7N 115.6E 945HPA 48M/S
P+96HR 18.3N 114.0E 930HPA 52M/S
P+120HR 19.0N 112.8E 930HPA 52M/S=

[Chacor]

This is also the first storm at 120 kt from JMA since Yuri in 91.

[Infdidoll]

This is also the first storm at 120 kt from JMA since Yuri in 91.

Wow. It's going to be hard to tear myself away and head to bed here.

[Chacor]

Megi is only the 12th cyclone in history to have a windspeed of 120 knots or more in the JMA database.

[oaba09]

The sub tropical ridge is currently holding up...



TY 1013 (Megi)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 17 October 2010
<Analyses at 17/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Very Intense
Center position N18°05'(18.1°)
E125°05'(125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 895hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(120kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(170kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 200km(110NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E600km(325NM)
W410km(220NM)

[Macrocane]

OMG I'm totally impressed, I couldn't believe what my eyes were seeing Megi is a perfect typhoon and doesn't seems to be weakening, outflow is excellent the eye is perfectly circular and cloud tops are cooling. I hope everyone stay safe in the Philippines and I will be waiting for their reports.

[P.K.]

I've never seen such high figures from any of these agencies since I've been tracking.

WTKO20 RKSL 171200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME TY 1013 MEGI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 171200UTC 18.1N 125.1E
MOVEMENT WSW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 895HPA 117KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 181200UTC 17.6N 120.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 191200UTC 17.1N 116.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 201200UTC 17.7N 114.4E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[GCANE]

That is a huge eye-wall. No ERC.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

Directly under a huge anti-cyclone.

This will be very destructive.

[Chacor]

JMA have only warned on two storms at higher than 120 kt: Bess (125 kt 900 hPa) and Tip (140 kt 870 hPa). It's unlikely they'll go any higher.

[Chacor]

PAGASA are being stubborn. 922 hPa at 9 pm.

[oaba09]

Does anyone have the figures for Super Typhoon Angela? I believe that was one of the strongest typhoons to ever hit the country...I wanna compare it w/ "Megi"...

[Chacor]

JMA carried Angela at 115 kt, 910 hPa.

[Infdidoll]

Does anyone have the figures for Super Typhoon Angela? I believe that was one of the strongest typhoons to ever hit the country...I wanna compare it w/ "Megi"...

Data on wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Angela_(1995)