WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

Re:

#681 Postby oaba09 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:10 am

Chacor wrote:JMA carried Angela at 115 kt, 910 hPa.


Wow....Talk about record breaking...God help our country...
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#682 Postby Macrocane » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:15 am

By the way, correct me if I'm wrong but I think that Megi is the tropical cyclone with the lowest pressure WORLDWIDE since Wilma.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11497
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: Re:

#683 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:15 am

oaba09 wrote:
Chacor wrote:JMA carried Angela at 115 kt, 910 hPa.


Wow....Talk about record breaking...God help our country...


My prayers go out to everyone there.
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#684 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:18 am

GCANE wrote:That is a huge eye-wall. No ERC.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

Directly under a huge anti-cyclone.

This will be very destructive.


Image

Image

Image



:eek: What else can I say. Do you think, with that condition, this could get any stronger? :eek: I'm thinking that it may not possess that strength as it makes landfall, but maybe I was wrong.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#685 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:18 am

Macrocane wrote:By the way, correct me if I'm wrong but I think that Megi is the tropical cyclone with the lowest pressure WORLDWIDE since Wilma.

First sub-900 since Wilma, yeah.
0 likes   

Battlebrick
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 177
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:55 pm

Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#686 Postby Battlebrick » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:26 am

How much longer does it have over water? Anyone think it has a shot at Tip?

Also, the western eye wall is :eek:
0 likes   
Lim_Fao on IRC.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#687 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:26 am

MEGI is incredibly powerful, I'm amazed at its strength. By the way, what kind of population are we talking about based on its projected landfall although I do think it will go south of its projected landfall, but still far north of Manila.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#688 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:27 am

Shot at Tip is possible, wind-wise at least. Pressure maybe not. But Tip was 165 kt from JTWC, and NRL is showing 155 kt for Megi right now.
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2060
Age: 50
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#689 Postby Crostorm » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:27 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2010 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 18:01:59 N Lon : 124:51:47 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 888.5mb/149.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.5 7.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +19.8C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#690 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:28 am

ADT is on the low side. Normal T-numbers are a consensus T7.5.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#691 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:33 am

From Typhoon Hunter on twitter:
"We going to stay in Aparri despite slightly southerly track of #Megi #Juan, too dangerous to mess about relocating on rural roads at night.."
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11497
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#692 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:40 am

dexterlabio wrote:
GCANE wrote:That is a huge eye-wall. No ERC.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

Directly under a huge anti-cyclone.

This will be very destructive.




:eek: What else can I say. Do you think, with that condition, this could get any stronger? :eek: I'm thinking that it may not possess that strength as it makes landfall, but maybe I was wrong.





No shear or EWRC and warm water all the way in.

Maybe some land interaction may weaken it some. Depends if there is a convective cap (stable air) over Luzon at the time it makes landfall.

I wonder if there are any real time soundings available for the area?
0 likes   

User avatar
Infdidoll
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 667
Age: 47
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:39 pm
Location: Temecula, CA

Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#693 Postby Infdidoll » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:40 am

If that's true and it does record an hPa of 888.6, it would be the 13th recorded strongest typhoon in the West Pac and only behind Wilma in the ATL.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#694 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:42 am

Infdidoll wrote:If that's true and it does record an hPa of 888.6, it would be the 13th recorded strongest typhoon in the West Pac and only behind Wilma in the ATL.


That is an estimate based on an automated system. To be taken with a lot of salt.
0 likes   

User avatar
FireRat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1246
Age: 38
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:38 pm
Location: North Carolina

#695 Postby FireRat » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:43 am

Yeah it's a beast!

However as far as strongest, I would say that last year's Supertyphoon Nida on November 25 which had T number of 8.0. probably still bests this one. The estimated pressure for that one was 869.3 if I remember correctly.
0 likes   
Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22

hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#696 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:44 am

What kind of damage are we talking here on the area?
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

Re:

#697 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:45 am

FireRat wrote:Yeah it's a beast!

However as far as strongest, I would say that last year's Supertyphoon Nida on November 25 which had T number of 8.0. probably still bests this one. The estimated pressure for that one was 869.3 if I remember correctly.


Automated DT? I'd not trust that reading. Remember 870 hPa is the world record low.
0 likes   

equinox
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 7
Joined: Mon Nov 02, 2009 6:45 am

Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#698 Postby equinox » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:50 am

I am very worried about the people in the Northern Philippines and start praying for my country... It's because last year, typhoon Parma caused too much damage and landslide in the northern part of the country.... Northern Luzon is also one of the most landslide prone areas in the our country...
0 likes   

User avatar
FireRat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1246
Age: 38
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:38 pm
Location: North Carolina

Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#699 Postby FireRat » Sun Oct 17, 2010 8:51 am

Nov 25's Nida is in the pic below, look at how the monster looked like and compare with Megi. I believe had we had recon in this one, there'd be a new record to talk about.

Image


Anyways, Megi is extremely powerful and is poised to deal a devastating strike!!
0 likes   
Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

#700 Postby oaba09 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 9:29 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.7N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.3N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.0N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.0N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.3N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.1N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.6N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 124.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD ESTIMATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 155 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   


Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests