WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[keysha_gurl]

Hi experts!

Need your expertise! Is typhoon megi hitting hong kong? And if so, when? I don't want my trip there this wednesday to be cancelled

I hope everyone is keeping safe! God bless the Philippines at times like these!

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on Recon and strengthening since, I would put the intensity at 175 kt (205 mph). WORLD RECORD there.

This is like a 20 mile wide EF5 tornado.

[Infdidoll]

Just talked to the husband via Skype. They're all excited and a little nervous there. Quite a few guys gathered around the computer getting their first glimpse of Megi/Juan. You should have seen their faces. I think it's one of the most picturesque typhoons I've ever seen on radar. I'll get another update from him tomorrow morning, but then they will be going on typhoon lockdown.

[CrazyC83]

Shot at Tip is possible, wind-wise at least. Pressure maybe not. But Tip was 165 kt from JTWC, and NRL is showing 155 kt for Megi right now.

Tip had a much, much lower ambient pressure. I think Tip has fallen wind-wise. To get to 870mb would require winds near 190-200 kt.

[oaba09]

The track has been lowered by JTWC because of the WSW movement of the system...It seems like the STR is stronger than expected...

[Chacor]

Based on Recon and strengthening since, I would put the intensity at 175 kt (205 mph). WORLD RECORD there.

This is like a 20 mile wide EF5 tornado.

Again, suggest you include the standard S2K disclaimer on such posts.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Good golliwog. Fingers crossed for everyone in that beast's path.

As for the stats, very very impressive.

In other news, I don't think HK is in the clear at all. At least not based on the 5day cone.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. MEGI HAS INTENSIFIED TO
THE UPPER REACHES OF SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. CURRENT DVORAK EYE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ESTIMATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
HAVE ELEVATED 10 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 155 KNOTS. A
STRENGTHENED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS SUPPORTED THIS
INTENSIFICATION, IN ADDITION TO SUSTAINED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST. EYE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT AROUND 15 DEG CELCIUS AND THE
EYE DIAMETER HAS RANGED FROM 20 TO 25 NM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
B. OUTER RAINBANDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT LUZON. THE SYSTEM
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER LUZON IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS AND
WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE RUGGED TOPOGRAPHY. IT WILL EMERGE
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND 18/12Z, REORGANIZE, AND GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN. AROUND THIS TIME THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND TURN NORTH OF WEST TO THE EAST OF
HAINAN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM SIX HOURS
AGO. GFS REMAINS THE LONE OUTLIER THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND
STALLS THE CYCLONE OFF THE WEST COAST OF LUZON FOR 1 TO 2 DAYS, THEN
JERKS THE TRACK PECULIARLY NORTHEAST. THE REST OF THE MODEL PACKING
RIDES THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING/RETREATING STEERING
RIDGE TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST, TO INCLUDE NOGAPS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST MEGI WILL TURN TOWARDS A BUILDING
WEAKENESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. MODEL FIELDS
INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS THE SOURCE OF THIS WEAKNESS. THERE
IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE WIDE
RANGE AMONG THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. NONTHELESS, THE 15Z JTWC
FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A REINTENSIFICATION SCENARIO.//

[CrazyC83]

MEGI HAS INTENSIFIED TO
THE UPPER REACHES OF SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH

What is above that? Ultra typhoon?

[dexterlabio]

On Tip, I guess it had much lower pressure because of its huge size. I also agree about Nida, it was also one remarkable storm in the Pacific, but it failed to maintain its peak intensity for a longer period because it went through EWRC many times.


Megi really reminds me of Zeb (1998)

[Battlebrick]

Will recon get out there before Megi makes landfall?

[CrazyC83]

On Tip, I guess it had much lower pressure because of its huge size. I also agree about Nida, it was also one remarkable storm in the Pacific, but it failed to maintain its peak intensity for a longer period because it went through EWRC many times.


Megi really reminds me of Zeb (1998)

I wish there was Recon for Nida! I wonder what it would have found...

[dexterlabio]

Lower track from PAGASA.

[CrazyC83]

If this was in the Atlantic, they'd be preparing the 1500Z advisory right now - I am sure that would have some exciting words from Franklin, Avila et al.

[GCANE]

Making the left-hand turn now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

[CrazyC83]

"Ondoy" and "Typhoon" are trending on Twitter. They think the rains will be the bigger story. Unlike Ketsana (Ondoy), I think wind, and to a lesser extent storm surge, will be a much bigger problem here. This is much more like Andrew or Felix (fairly compact storms with explosive winds) than Allison (which was a good comparison to Ketsana there, sprawling rainmaker) or Katrina (much smaller).

[GCANE]

[Chacor]

JTWC calling for landfall at 145-150 kt shortly after 8 am tomorrow.

[phwxenthusiast]

whoa!! i decided to get some sleep and now i'm seeing sub-900mb, 155kts, and comments like "Upper Reaches of Super Typhoon Strength".... incredible storm!!!

hmm, it seems like PAGASA is not using the term "Super Typhoon" anymore... their estimated are already at 225kph, that should be STY strength right??

[KWT]

Jeez this has turned into a beast...looks like my call for this to be the first 100 page WPAC thread is going to come true...

Amazing looking storm, looks like the models and forecasting agencies have done amazingly well calling this one to become a beast...no shock to me really this has become a strong system...though 155kts is something I'm amazed at!