WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#781 Postby Crostorm » Sun Oct 17, 2010 3:24 pm




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2010 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 17:29:58 N Lon : 123:53:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 881.0mb/155.0kt

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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#782 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 3:27 pm

euro6208 wrote:I bet this is getting to Super Typhoon Tip's record low of 870 mb


Ambient pressure is too high for that.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#783 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 17, 2010 3:34 pm

JTWC 2100z Warning=155kts

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 124.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 124.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.2N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.8N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.7N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.9N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.4N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.2N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.8N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 123.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED 25 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH A CONCENTRIC
EYE WALL AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON COINCIDENT EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD AT 17/18Z. STY MEGI APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF
160 TO 165 KNOTS BETWEEN 17/12Z AND 17/18Z, BASED ON 171115Z AND
171206Z AIRCRAFT VORTEX MESSAGES INDICATING 163 KNOT MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS AND A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 893 MB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 155 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND
REFLECTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO INITIAL INTERACTION OF THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON.
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAVE SUSTAINED AHEAD OF A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM, RESPECTIVELY. STY MEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
CAGAYAN AND ISABELA PROVINCES IN NORTHERN LUZON AND WEAKEN TO
TYPHOON INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES THE CORDILLERA MOUNTAIN RANGE. STY
15W IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 24
AND RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFS WHICH ERRONEOUSLY RE-CURVES THE SYSTEM TOWARD TAIWAN. AFTER TAU
36, THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKS BASED ON THE TIMING IN
WHICH THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36, BUT IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF CONSENSUS IN THE LATER TAUS, FAVORING THE MORE CONSISTENT
UKMO, ECMWF, AND JGSM MODEL TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z,
181500Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#784 Postby JTE50 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 3:35 pm

SFLcane wrote:
JTE50 wrote:does it look like the last frame is flattening out to you folks? ttp://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamir.html


Jim it maybe flattening out a bit but unfortunately this is an extremely well developed cyclone and will no doupt be devastating for the Philippines. I'am sure you wish you were there...Pretty sure james will capture some great footage.


yeah, I'm just curious of where it comes in since I know the area well and how bad this will be depends on the track.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#785 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Oct 17, 2010 3:49 pm

Very intense Jim. If you chasing please be safe.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#786 Postby Squarethecircle » Sun Oct 17, 2010 3:56 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#787 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Oct 17, 2010 3:57 pm

I wish there were webcams around that area. It could be real interesting to see what would happen.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#788 Postby JTE50 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:03 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:I wish there were webcams around that area. It could be real interesting to see what would happen.


internet too slow and unreliable in Aparri but yes, would be fascinating to watch. I recall hooking up to various internet cafes there numerous times and immediately my ESET antivirus software shut down attack after attack.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#789 Postby ejeraldmc » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:04 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:I wish there were webcams around that area. It could be real interesting to see what would happen.


Cameras would be blown off.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#790 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:07 pm

ejeraldmc wrote:
hurricaneCW wrote:I wish there were webcams around that area. It could be real interesting to see what would happen.


Cameras would be blown off.


It would need to be incredibly well-sealed to withstand the winds. Something like the one that survived the tornado in Parkersburg, Iowa in 2008 (just it would have to sustain that for 2 hours, not 2 minutes).
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#791 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:11 pm

The latest warning from JTWC mentions something very interesting...

STY MEGI APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF
160 TO 165 KNOTS BETWEEN 17/12Z AND 17/18Z, BASED ON 171115Z AND
171206Z AIRCRAFT VORTEX MESSAGES INDICATING 163 KNOT MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS AND A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 893 MB

WOW! what a record breaking storm and there are many evidence that Megi could have peaked near 170 knots sustained and central pressure way lower probrably somewhere between 875 to 890mb! Certainly right up there with the Strongest Typhoons to ever develop! May god bless the Philippines and hopefully no one gets killed...

Megi is considered the 20th strongest typhoon to ever develop in the Western Pacific http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_th ... l_cyclones
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#792 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:15 pm

What a beast. Unbelievable.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#793 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:22 pm

AdamFirst wrote:What a beast. Unbelievable.


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The Recon reports supported at least 170 kt at 1200Z. Since I think it strengthened a bit afterward, I estimate it peaked at 175 kt at 1800Z today (pressure 888mb). I would put it back at 170 kt now, with a pressure of 890mb.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#794 Postby kswat4 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:26 pm

My wife and her family are in Brgy Lawis, Pangasinan, is this typhoon close to them or does anyone know how hard they have been hit there?

Thanks so much!

Steve
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#795 Postby P.K. » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:28 pm

euro6208 wrote:The latest warning from JTWC mentions something very interesting...

STY MEGI APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF
160 TO 165 KNOTS BETWEEN 17/12Z AND 17/18Z, BASED ON 171115Z AND
171206Z AIRCRAFT VORTEX MESSAGES INDICATING 163 KNOT MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS AND A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 893 MB


Further to this a late issued VDM just showed 165kt surface winds and a pressure of 890hPa.
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#796 Postby neospaceblue » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:28 pm

I think this a case to start recon in the W. Pacific again. If it wasn't for recon, this would be severely underestimated.

Also, what was the last storm to hit 165 kts? The only three I know of are Camille, Tip and Allen.
Last edited by neospaceblue on Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#797 Postby JTE50 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:28 pm

kswat4 wrote:My wife and her family are in Brgy Lawis, Pangasinan, is this typhoon close to them or does anyone know how hard they have been hit there?

Thanks so much!

Steve


You have a map of where that is or can you tell what it's near?
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#798 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:31 pm

JTE50 wrote:
kswat4 wrote:My wife and her family are in Brgy Lawis, Pangasinan, is this typhoon close to them or does anyone know how hard they have been hit there?

Thanks so much!

Steve


You have a map of where that is or can you tell what it's near?


based on the track, it looks like Megi will track just north of Pangasinan, across La Union... but still, expect typhoon force winds for Pangasinan (eg Dagupan City) beginning Monday afternoon to late Monday night...

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#799 Postby KWT » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:33 pm

I suspect 170kts was probably about right for the peak strength with pressure I'd suspect down to maybe 885mbs, given the surface estimates I don't think I could go any higher then 170kts but either way this is a real extreme storm, that there can be no doubt...
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#800 Postby JTE50 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:34 pm

looks like a due west movement over the last hour or so.
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