WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Battlebrick]

Is there any radars, wind reports, or anything from the coastal cities of Luzon?

[Typhoon10]

Having never experienced a Typhoon, the only positive side is it will hit during the daytime. At night time can imagine it being horrendous, with electricity probably being knocked out, total darkness, wind howling and things flying around. Totally scary!

We prayed at church yesterday for those people in Philippines.

Megi is mindblowing, we can only imagine what its like to be there

[supercane]

JMA actually increased max winds to 125kt at 00Z:

FKPQ30 RJTD 180000
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20101018/0000Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: MEGI
NR: 20
PSN: N1730 E12320
MOV: W 08KT
C: 885HPA
MAX WIND: 125KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 18/0600Z N1710 E12150
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 18/1200Z N1700 E12110
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 18/1800Z N1650 E12010
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 19/0000Z N1635 E11910
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 80KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20101018/0600Z =

[phwxenthusiast]

wow!!! so 165kts peak according to JTWC may not be far-fetched after all!!!

[Infdidoll]

Hey T10! Yeah, we've had a few come close to here (never experienced a direct hit, thankfully), and just the noise from the screaming wind alone was scary. I can't imagine what it would be like losing power and sitting in the dead of night hearing that. There is always something to be thankful for.

My prayers are also with everyone in harm's way.

[JTE50]

Is there any radars, wind reports, or anything from the coastal cities of Luzon?

yeah, I'm looking for land based radar too. Michael Padua would know. Let me check with him.

[Infdidoll]

:uarrow:

wow!!! so 165kts peak according to JTWC may not be far-fetched after all!!!

Typhoon Hunter posted this from Twitter several hours ago:

typhoonfury - James Reynolds
JTWC - STY MEGI APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 160 TO 165 KNOTS. That would tie Megi with strongest TC EVER on record...STY TIP

The data from this storm is crazy...Why does it always seem like the big storms come right when you think the season is over?

[phwxenthusiast]

Is there any radars, wind reports, or anything from the coastal cities of Luzon?

yeah, I'm looking for land based radar too. Michael Padua would know. Let me check with him.

they have an "old" radar in Aparri but i don't think they're putting the data to their website though.. and i believe they have another one in Aurora, but that's kinda south of Megi right now...

[neospaceblue]

JMA have only warned on two storms at higher than 120 kt: Bess (125 kt 900 hPa) and Tip (140 kt 870 hPa). It's unlikely they'll go any higher.

Better make that three.

JMA actually increased max winds to 125kt at 00Z:

FKPQ30 RJTD 180000
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20101018/0000Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: MEGI
NR: 20
PSN: N1730 E12320
MOV: W 08KT
C: 885HPA
MAX WIND: 125KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 18/0600Z N1710 E12150
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 110KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 18/1200Z N1700 E12110
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 18/1800Z N1650 E12010
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 19/0000Z N1635 E11910
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 80KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20101018/0600Z =

[dhoeze]

We were told by PAGASA that doppler radars has been installed in various Telecom cellsites as part of the improvements with PAGASA. We'll check if goverment would release data

[phwxenthusiast]

We were told by PAGASA that doppler radars has been installed in various Telecom cellsites as part of the improvements with PAGASA. We'll check if goverment would release data

they said that data will be released upon written request...

[oaba09]

[JTE50]

Is there any radars, wind reports, or anything from the coastal cities of Luzon?

yeah, I'm looking for land based radar too. Michael Padua would know. Let me check with him.

they have an "old" radar in Aparri but i don't think they're putting the data to their website though.. and i believe they have another one in Aurora, but that's kinda south of Megi right now...

I filmed the "old" radar in Aparri last year. The PAGASA folks were kind enough to give me access. You have a hard time making out the typhoon on that screen - it's 50ies technology old but it works!

[euro6208]

wow not only are we learning about Megi, but past very strong typhoons are getting mentioned. i think this is really a historial super typhoon

[supercane]

Intraagency comparison with 00Z advisories:

WTPQ20 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 17.5N 123.3E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 885HPA
MXWD 125KT
GUST 175KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 16.6N 119.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 200000UTC 17.0N 117.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 210000UTC 18.1N 115.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

WTPQ20 BABJ 180000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC
00HR 17.5N 123.3E 895HPA 72M/S
30KTS 320KM
50KTS 110KM
P12HR W 15KM/H
P+24HR 17.0N 119.7E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 17.6N 116.6E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 18.7N 114.3E 925HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 19.3N 113.4E 930HPA 52M/S
P+120HR 19.6N 112.0E 930HPA 52M/S=


WTKO20 RKSL 180000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME TY 1013 MEGI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 180000UTC 17.5N 123.3E
MOVEMENT W 9KT
PRES/VMAX 890HPA 119KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 190000UTC 17.0N 119.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 200000UTC 17.3N 116.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT
72HR
POSITION 210000UTC 18.5N 115.0E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[oaba09]

Moving westwards now...

[hurricaneCW]

It appears that landfall is only a few hours away, there's not much time for it to weaken before landfall. I think it'll hit as a STY, hopefully all the evacuations have been completed and luckily it's not a very populated area.

[supercane]

^I guess maintaining the strength or dropped by 5kts only.

Hard to say. JMA just increased their MSW by 5kt, but that may be to catch up to earlier, not an indication of actual new strengthening given their Dvorak T number remains steady at 7.5 (corresponding to 155kt). However, in addition to the PGTW (JTWC) T number dropping to 7.0 (corresponding to 140kt) and KNES suggesting a smaller area of coldest tops, UW-CIMSS and CIRA also suggest weakening.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2010 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 17:28:05 N Lon : 123:19:19 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 881.0mb/155.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.2 7.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +17.1C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


This is not to take anything away from this historic typhoon, as its winds, even if slowly coming down from a JTWC estimated peak of 160-165kt, are still well in the super typhoon/category 5 range. It will be interesting to see JTWC's 03Z advisory, but given their lower Dvorak estimate, I would anticipate some weakening.

[CrazyC83]

If it moves due west or slightly WSW now, Divilacan (population 5,000 on the coast) gets a direct hit by the RFQ.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree it has probably "weakened" some since 1800Z. At that point I would have said 175 kt based on Recon. I'd bring it "down" to 165 kt now and probably about 150-160 kt at landfall at this rate. That is still INCREDIBLY dangerous though and potentially catastrophic. Amazing at such speeds we are talking about weakening!