WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[cycloneye]

Model spread:


12Z models:


ECMWF at 144hr near Hainan Island:


Synoptically, it appears fairly certain that the ridge will weaken after Megi passes through Luzon, allowing more poleward motion, but the question is to what degree? I would currently discount both the GFS and the CMC solutions calling for a sharp northerly turn, although the GFS has been persistent with it over the last several runs. NOGAPS actually has a believable solution. The Euro has been very consistent and has performed very well with Megi, so I would lean toward the UKMET/ECMWF solution of a gradual turn back to the WNW at this time. However, as the JMA graphic shows, there is still uncertainty, so it does bear watching (can we get a graphic, cycloneye [or is it Hurakan?]).

It will be interesting to see the 00Z model runs.

[Ptarmigan]

That is about close to a hypercane we would get. Tip was very large, about the size of the Western United States. It would take several Katrinas to fit inside Tip.

Think about that hitting Hong Kong or Shanghai at that strength??????????? That would really be catastrophic!!!!!!! I thought Ike was really bad due to its monsterous size when it ravaged Houston area.

[ozonepete]

Looks like a large meso-vortex on the NE portion of the eye.

I agree. That's a really smart observation you made. Must be hellish winds in there and could be coming from any direction in that. Wow!

[Ptarmigan]

I agree. That's a really smart observation you made. Must be hellish winds in there and could be coming from any direction in that. Wow!

I don't want to be caught in that type of storm for sure. I would be scared for one. Lot of buildings would be damaged

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a large meso-vortex on the NE portion of the eye.

I agree. That's a really smart observation you made. Must be hellish winds in there and could be coming from any direction in that. Wow!

On my large screen it appears to be two. We'll see if they are there next pass with a bit better light.

[JTE50]

If it moves due west or slightly WSW now, Divilacan (population 5,000 on the coast) gets a direct hit by the RFQ.

This is not official. Just my thoughts: Looking at the satellite loop, It appears to me the eye will go right over Divilacan on the coast. Have to wait and see what the "whobbles" do but that's what looks to be shaping up.

[cycloneye]

At 0057z.

[cebuboy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/flash-rb.html

about to landfall.

[ozonepete]

Looks like a large meso-vortex on the NE portion of the eye.

I agree. That's a really smart observation you made. Must be hellish winds in there and could be coming from any direction in that. Wow!

On my large screen it appears to be two. We'll see if they are there next pass with a bit better light.

Hey there 'srain. No you are right - I see two also. I was (and think GCANE was) just commenting on how vicious the mesovortex in the NE side of the eye is because it's so large and well-embedded within the eyewall. For others who might not know, those are the most dangerous because some researchers have speculated the winds can be briefly 10% higher than the main eyewall winds and can come from the opposite direction you are expecting. Just an amazing storm to watch.

P.S. Agree that with more daylight we can see more. Also I'm sure MODIS will have some spectacular images in the next few days so we can analyze it further.

[Chacor]

Eye is filling in now. Hopefully should weaken a bit before landfall but it only has an hour or two left.

[JTE50]

There is a PAGASA Wx station in Tuguegarao so hopefully we can get some obs near the eye.

[cycloneye]

As Chacor said,the eye is filling,so some good news in that regard. At 0130z

[RobWESTPACWX]

I know I havent been saying to much all, I been here though, basically jaw dropped at this moment. My prayers go out to everyone in the region.... I'm actually very scared of what we will find tomorrow.

[hurricaneCW]

Yeah it's weakening upon landfall but that was expected, probably 135-140 knots at landfall in the next 2 hours.

[dexterlabio]

Hourly updates from PAGASA (Twitter):

Apayao - strong wind and rain; Ilagan , Isabela - moderate rain, very strong wind
4 minutes ago via web

[dexterlabio]

Very, very close to the border of Cagayan and Isabela provinces. The northern portion of Isabela currently having very intense winds.

[GCANE]

Being early in the morning, there is probably a convective cap over the landmass. That in turn will entrain stable air into the core and weaken it some.

[Infdidoll]

Typhoon Hunter just sent out another Tweet saying he should be going live again on CNN at 12 p.m. Philippine local time.

[Chacor]

I'd expect landfall to be around then.

Anyway, JTWC discussion:

WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 172242Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CIRCULAR 27 NM EYE
WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYE WALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON CONCURRENT DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD AT 18/00Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 140 TO 155 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. WHILE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAVE SUSTAINED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLIGHT WEAKENING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM DUE
TO INCREASED LAND INTERACTION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY MEGI IS WITHIN SIX HOURS OF MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CAGAYAN
AND ISABELA PROVINCES IN NORTHERN LUZON. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY, BUT SUSTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH AS CROSSES THE
CORDILLERA MOUNTAIN RANGE AND RE-EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. STY MEGI IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORGANIZE AND
GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH OF WEST TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY TAUS. GFS REMAINS THE ONLY
OUTLIER, STALLING THE SYSTEM OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF LUZON UNTIL
TAU 48, AND THEN DRIVING THE SYSTEM INTO THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TOWARD
TAIWAN. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO MAKE SENSE, ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING
500 MB HEIGHTS ANALYZED OVER SOUTH EASTERN CHINA AND TAIWAN OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS STY MEGI IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72, BUT THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS ALONG
THE SOUTH CHINA COAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL BASED ON THE SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER TAUS. UKMO AND ECMWF ARE ALONG THE THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND TRACK THE SYSTEM TOWARD
EASTERN HAINAN, NOGAPS AND WBAR LIE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
AIDS ENVELOPE TRACKING THE SYSTEM TOWARD HONG KONG, AND GFDN IS
SPLIT IN THE MIDDLE. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF MODEL CONSENSUS.//

[HurricaneBill]

The last typhoon to make a Category 5 landfall was Super Typhoon Cimaron in 2006.