WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[RobWESTPACWX]

On satellite, you can already see the portion of the storm over water flaring up again on the northern periphery. It's like it was holding its breath under water (or over land, more like) and is coming up for air again.

Agreed, the NW portion is already blowing back up, the storm is moving coast rather fast though, this is very good news.

[Infdidoll]

I am surprised at how fast this storm moved, too...it was booking it across Luzon!

It doesn't look too bad for having gone across a major land mass, actually: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... tsatw.html

[RobWESTPACWX]

That is great news, absolutely great news!

[Infdidoll]

Wow...wind and rain suddenly picked up here......Weird because I thought the worst was over...

The wind shifts a lot as these things pass. Maybe the winds are finally blowing in your direction. Looks like convective bursts are also happening as the Western side of the storm edges out over water, pulling more condensation into the storm. I'm wondering if it's weakened as far as it's going to and is now going to start feeding off the warmer waters on the other side of the island and strengthening...or if that won't happen until the entire body of the circulation is over water? If it does strengthen while still partially over land, the western side of Luzon could take a beating, too.

[dexterlabio]

Wow...wind and rain suddenly picked up here......Weird because I thought the worst was over...

Same here in Quezon City, the banners for next week's town elections are swaying...some occasional rains present, but at least Megi is now on its way out of the landmass of Luzon...


It was 155kts (1-min average according to JTWC) short distance from the coast of NE Luzon, but weakening to 145kts on landfall...well it's supposed to weaken after all, no cyclone can get any stronger when it comes to land

[Infdidoll]

That is great news, absolutely great news!

Great for the Philippines, but could be bad for China if the core is still holding together very well. I was saying, "Yeah right" about some of these forecasts predicting it strengthening up to a possible Category 4 again...but maybe it isn't so far-fetched.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya the winds in Manilla will be coming out of the W now, off of the water so less friction, plus moisture inflow from the SCS will be blowing of the region now. Quezon an Manilla should be seeing the worst of it now. Stay safe there guys.

[CrazyC83]

145 kt was the 1-min landfall intensity based on JTWC.

[Chacor]

JMA's current SCS forecast peak is 90 knots, 930 hPa.
JTWC's current SCS forecast peak is 115 knots (Cat 4).

[dexterlabio]

WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.7N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.7N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.9N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.3N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.2N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.7N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.8N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 120.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MEGI IS POSITIONED TO MOVE BACK
OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND IS FORECAST TO RE-
INTENSIFY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z,
190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

[dhoeze]

Guys,

i dont seem to see now the eye of the typhoon, anyone has an image of it?
Almost there, a lot of property damage but importantly almost zero casualities.
Thank you all for your prayers

[RL3AO]

This whole thing makes me wonder how many more West Pacific storms have gone below 900 mb or even if any have gone below 870. When recon was flying into storms, there seemed to be a sub-900 storm every season or two. Then when recon stops, we go 19 years between sub-900 storms (Yuri 1991), which I'm guessing had recon due to its proximity to Guam.

[KWT]

I've no doubt we've had muluiple storms go sub 900mbs Crazy in that period, but who knows really!

The JWTC is forecasting a pretty strong system redeveloping, I think what will be key is how well the core can redevelop, you can get upto 90-95kts without any real organised inner core but to go above that you really do need to get a decent core going and time overland, esp for a totally developed mature system like Megi often much reduces a systems chances of doing that.

Then again this one has an awful lot of time to redevelop that core so its certainly in the realm of whats possible...

[ManilaTC]

Ya the winds in Manilla will be coming out of the W now, off of the water so less friction, plus moisture inflow from the SCS will be blowing of the region now. Quezon an Manilla should be seeing the worst of it now. Stay safe there guys.

Satellite images show that right now, a heavy band of showers now forming off the west coast of Manila...
Flood prone areas should watch out right now...

[euro6208]

This whole thing makes me wonder how many more West Pacific storms have gone below 900 mb or even if any have gone below 870. When recon was flying into storms, there seemed to be a sub-900 storm every season or two. Then when recon stops, we go 19 years between sub-900 storms (Yuri 1991), which I'm guessing had recon due to its proximity to Guam.

it gives me the creepy feeling that many of them had gone unnoticed because of no recon

[Ptarmigan]

Thankfully, Megi is not very large. Had it been large, it would be MUCH worse.

[Ptarmigan]

This whole thing makes me wonder how many more West Pacific storms have gone below 900 mb or even if any have gone below 870. When recon was flying into storms, there seemed to be a sub-900 storm every season or two. Then when recon stops, we go 19 years between sub-900 storms (Yuri 1991), which I'm guessing had recon due to its proximity to Guam.

it gives me the creepy feeling that many of them had gone unnoticed because of no recon

1997 had numerous storms below 900 mb like Joan and Keith. I would not be at all surprised if they beat Tip. Only probem is, there was no recon for them and they are based on Dvorak, which can be spurious at times.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[RL3AO]

This whole thing makes me wonder how many more West Pacific storms have gone below 900 mb or even if any have gone below 870. When recon was flying into storms, there seemed to be a sub-900 storm every season or two. Then when recon stops, we go 19 years between sub-900 storms (Yuri 1991), which I'm guessing had recon due to its proximity to Guam.

it gives me the creepy feeling that many of them had gone unnoticed because of no recon

1997 had numerous storms below 900 mb like Joan and Keith. I would not be at all surprised if they beat Tip. Only probem is, there was no recon for them and they are based on Dvorak, which can be spurious at times.

Joan and Ivan were 905mb, Keith was 910. Of course, its possible if not probable that all 3 were really under 900.

[euro6208]

Unlike Megi who reach only 7.5, those storms in 1997 reached 8.0 or higher. Nida last year reach 8 also