ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
Not as consolidated as Paula but over warm waters where it might muster one last storm.
If those beefy bands flex towards the center we could be surprised...
If those beefy bands flex towards the center we could be surprised...
0 likes
- MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5796
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
Yea, looks like Paula 2.....better organized this morning. Still looks like it will go into CA.....MGC
0 likes
- SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Depends on how you define "moving inland". Much of the disturbance is already inland. The weak center is on the coast now, but it may move to just north of Honduras later today. That could increase its chances development. Actually, the convection north of Honduras near 16.3N/90W looks more impressive this morning. A 30-40% shot at development may not be too bad of an estimate, but I think we were all thinking 90-100% chance a few days ago.
57,
Yesterday, the 00Z models were initializing way down at ~10N, 81W and tracks were then going W to WNW into the EPAC. So, I'd say that compared to 36 hours ago, things are looking quite a bit more positive for development in the W. Caribbean vs. how they looked then.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- latitude_20
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 196
- Joined: Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:46 am
- Location: Tulum, Mexico
- Contact:
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
Seems to be developing some circular organization. Visible shows what almost looks to me like a center about 100 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
Plane for tommorow afternoon.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 18 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-139
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 17.5N 83.5W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT
20/1200Z IF SYSTEM IS A THREAT.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 18 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-139
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 17.5N 83.5W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT
20/1200Z IF SYSTEM IS A THREAT.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 18 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS. A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...
AND DEVELOPMENT COULD BE INHIBITED FOR THAT REASON. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A
FEW SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY...
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 18 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS. A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...
AND DEVELOPMENT COULD BE INHIBITED FOR THAT REASON. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A
FEW SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY...
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
0 likes
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
Storm should organize from the new center burst offshore from the Nicaragua/Honduras corner.
System obviously much more sheared from the east than Paula.
It's been cool up here for weeks now. If it does come in this direction I doubt conditions will support any intensity.
System obviously much more sheared from the east than Paula.
It's been cool up here for weeks now. If it does come in this direction I doubt conditions will support any intensity.
0 likes
- Aquawind
- Category 5
- Posts: 6714
- Age: 60
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
- Location: Salisbury, NC
- Contact:
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
It's been cool up here for weeks now. If it does come in this direction I doubt conditions will support any intensity.
SSTs in the 70's and dropping so that sounds reasonable..
As usual the Yukatan and Cuba is another story..
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22506
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
It does look better-organized this afternoon. May have a shot at developing north of Honduras. But with high pressure building across the SE U.S. it shouldn't move in that direction.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
18z Best Track
AL, 99, 2010101818, , BEST, 0, 157N, 832W, 25, 1010, LO
AL, 99, 2010101818, , BEST, 0, 157N, 832W, 25, 1010, LO
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- latitude_20
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 196
- Joined: Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:46 am
- Location: Tulum, Mexico
- Contact:
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
Um, is it me or is this thing looking like it's going to make it north of Honduras?
0 likes
- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
latitude_20 wrote:Um, is it me or is this thing looking like it's going to make it north of Honduras?
it's already almost north of honduras
0 likes
- CourierPR
- Category 5
- Posts: 1325
- Age: 70
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
- Location: Pompano Beach, Florida
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
According to AccuWeather, land interaction, not shear, is what has kept development in check.Sanibel wrote:Storm should organize from the new center burst offshore from the Nicaragua/Honduras corner.
System obviously much more sheared from the east than Paula.
It's been cool up here for weeks now. If it does come in this direction I doubt conditions will support any intensity.
0 likes
North or not, imo the building southeast ridge is going to prevent direct impacts to U.S. coast. Can't say the same for the Caribbean coast, IF it should form.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- CourierPR
- Category 5
- Posts: 1325
- Age: 70
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
- Location: Pompano Beach, Florida
Re: ATL : INVEST 99L - Discussion
There is a cold front progged to be into the deep south on Wednesday. Might this have an affect on the future track of the system?
0 likes
- latitude_20
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 196
- Joined: Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:46 am
- Location: Tulum, Mexico
- Contact:
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests