WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Chacor]

Eye just west of Luzon.

[Chacor]

Monica in 2006 is one of the few cyclones I remember reaching T8.0

That was an automated AODT reading as well.

[euro6208]

Monica in 2006 is one of the few cyclones I remember reaching T8.0

i think that was through the website i gave also

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 16.8N 119.9E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 16.6N 117.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 201200UTC 17.3N 116.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 211200UTC 18.5N 116.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =




WTPQ20 BABJ 181500
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 181500 UTC
00HR 16.9N 120.0E 945HPA 50M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 15KM/H
P+24HR 17.2N 117.0E 940HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 17.8N 115.0E 940HPA 52M/S
P+72HR 18.7N 113.7E 930HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 19.8N 111.3E 940HPA 52M/S
P+120HR 21.2N 108.8E 975HPA 33M/S=


WTPQ20 VHHH 181045
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 180900 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON MEGI (1013) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 920 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 110 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC
ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (118.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

[euro6208]

I can't believe how fast the eye crossed luzon. It's already in the south china sea. I think Megi might rapidly intensify again because of the warm sst and good outflow

[HURAKAN]

Monica in 2006 is one of the few cyclones I remember reaching T8.0

That was an automated AODT reading as well.

Yeah. Monica was a lot more compact than Megi and very, very intense.

[Chacor]

Interesting to see the JMA's five-day has shifted so far east. Looks like they're really buying the model shift towards Taiwan.

[Chacor]

As it stands JMA have this missing Hong Kong to the east! JTWC are still well west of HK, splitting down the middle of Hainan/HK. Wonder if the model shift will verify. Either JMA or JTWC will have a lot of crow to eat.

[KWT]

I think given some of the same models that recurve east of HK tried to take this north before Luzon I'll regard them with huge amount of doubt and go along with the JWTC idea for now...

Inner core looks just about ruined, just about still strongon the western side, going to take a little while to sort that out, but thats obviously not to say it won't strength because it probably will in the next 24-36hrs steadily and the amount of convection to the south is a surefire sign that it should strengthen, but if you wanna get above 100kts your going to need an inner core to redevelop stronger then it presently is.

[supercane]

First JMA Dvorak estimate since Megi entered the South China Sea in at T6.0 at 18Z.

544
TCNA21 RJTD 181800
CCAA 18180 47644 MEGI(1013) 17167 11189 12404 260// 92716=

[supercane]

Chacor, for now I agree with KWT. The ECMWF has performed well and has been very consistent in its path WSW through Luzon and then bending back toward the WNW toward E Hainan Is. The fact that the GFS wants to stall Megi when it is still moving W is already not verifying. In addition, after it stalls and then moves Megi N toward the Taiwan Strait in response to a trough, it then turns Megi back WNW toward Hong Kong in the 12Z model, which I think is unrealistic. Same goes for CMC's north shot. NOGAPS is very close to the HKO forecast and in fact brings Megi ashore close to Hong Kong. Still awaiting the 12Z ECMWF on its site.

[supercane]

Latest PGTW (JTWC) Dvorak estimate is T4.0 at 18Z.
TPPN11 PGTW 181824
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 18/1730Z
C. 16.9N
D. 119.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/W4.0/24HRS STT: W3.0/15HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
CNVCTN WRAPS A .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL WWHT SURR BAND YIELDING A
4.0 DT. MET YIELDED A 6.0. PT YIELDED A 4.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/1509Z 16.8N 120.1E TRMM
ROSS

So now we have:
RJTD: 6.0 (115kt on 1-min scale)
KNES: 5.5 (102kt)
PGTW: 4.0 (65kt)

[CrazyC83]

Based on those estimates, I would put it at 90 kt (1-min) right now, splitting them and accounting for decay.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 16.7N 118.9E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 16.7N 116.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 201800UTC 17.9N 115.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 211800UTC 18.8N 115.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

[JTE50]

The NASA site has super high res images of Megi. Pick your res: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2010291-1018/Megi.A2010291.0235.2km.jpg

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 16.7N 118.9E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 16.7N 116.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 201800UTC 17.9N 115.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 211800UTC 18.8N 115.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 221800UTC 20.2N 114.9E 240NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 231800UTC 22.4N 114.9E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT =




WTPQ20 BABJ 181800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 181800 UTC
00HR 16.8N 118.9E 945HPA 50M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 15KM/H
P+24HR 16.8N 116.3E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 17.3N 114.6E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 18.3N 113.1E 940HPA 52M/S
P+96HR 19.7N 111.0E 930HPA 55M/S
P+120HR 21.2N 108.1E 975HPA 33M/S=


WTKO20 RKSL 181800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME TY 1013 MEGI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 181800UTC 16.7N 118.9E
MOVEMENT W 16KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 191800UTC 17.0N 116.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 201800UTC 18.3N 115.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT
72HR
POSITION 211800UTC 19.7N 114.8E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.



Earlier ASCAT:

[ManilaTC]

On the lighter side...

i believe this monster should be named after one of my favorite childhood villains...

thus the name...

MEGITRON...

[ManilaTC]

See this amazing pic of a GI roof being blown off!

[oaba09]

Metro Manila is experiencing very heavy rainfall right now...Looking at the sat loops, I can now understand why...

[ManilaTC]

Metro Manila is experiencing very heavy rainfall right now...Looking at the sat loops, I can now understand why...

It has rained non-stop since 7pm last night... many folk perhaps are having a sleepless night.